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That is true, we don't know the number of ITAs in the next draws. However, we have seen a pattern of bimonthly draws with 1600-1700 ITAs each and it is reasonable to expect such draws in the future, because this number of ITAs corresponds very nicely with the immigration targets set for 2015 as...

I just spat coffee on my screen. +1 for making my day.

Can you take IELTS instead of CELPIP? They should organize IELTS in Canada too, and the speaking tests are held on different day so the cause no disturbance.

Only retaking the IELTS can change your score (unless you obtain a PhD diploma or learn French, which would probably take too much time). But 409 is quite a good score, I don't think it needs improvement :)

51000 is not the number of invitations. It's the number of total applicants (including spouses & dependent children). The number of ITAs will be probably about a half of that. BTW, for CEC it's 23000 applicants as I recall.

I would advise you to pay attention to Saskatchewan Express Entry PNP, because it has high cap (1000 applications!) and no job offer is required. The program is not yet open, but the application guide is ready: http://www.economy.gov.sk.ca/immigration/express-entry There is a list of NOCs they...

Actually, bitcoin has good mechanisms for proof of funds. The balance of every wallet is public for every one to see. And the wallet owner can use his wallet public key to sign a message (like "dear CIC, this is really my wallet") and any other bitcoin user can verify that indeed it was signed...

I could of course, but they are sitting in a swap contract with very high interest rate (impossible with fiat money) so I would not like to sell them now and lose the future profits :)

Anyone tried that? They can be liquidated quickly on any of existing exchanges... wonder what CIC would say to that? :-)

Sorry, but I must say you don't seem to grasp the distinction between scientific modeling and gut feelings. A "pessimist" is somebody who believes things will turn out wrong because that's his unfounded belief. An "optimist" is somebody who believes things will turn our allright because that's...

The model expects about 38000 ITAs per year. The CIC targets for Express Entry 2015 are 47000-51000 FSW and 21000-23000 CEC, plus a small part of PNP will go through Express Entry as well (maybe ~ 5000?). So that makes about 73000-79000 people. Compared to the model, that would make 2 people...

I will be watching the spreadsheet to adjust to such situation properly :)

It's quite a stretch to answer that, because the model is iterative so it gets more and more inaccurate with every subsequent prediction. But based on the limited data we have so far, I would say: 350 rather not possible this year, 380 quite possible in August or September. Remember that the...

I have edited my post above to show the algorithm. It's something really simple, hard to even call it "algorithm" so far. It just simulates new people coming to the pool with correct score distribution, and then CIC taking the best people out with a draw.

It is open sourced - the original post contains a pastebin link where you can get the source code. The 5% assumption is to be improved as we see next draws, but currently it looks like a good approximation. I don't see it going suddenly to 2% or 10%, it will hover somewhere around this 5% which...

Well, as I said the model is way too inaccurate for that so far :) It highly depends on the the number of new people in the pool every month, and this number may be declining in the future because EE is a new system so now in the first months everyone is rushing to the pool. Have hope with 362 :)

OK, so now we are after 6 draws, we can create a decent statistical model of the pool based on the Express Entry spreadsheet. We know (just like I predicted here...

Well guys. I told you so. Here is evidence that many people got added 600 points when they shouldn't have (though it was actually CIC's error, not theirs)...

The same happened to me right now. It is normal to receive these emails from time to time without any apparent change in the profile, it's just some internal processing in the CIC system.

I decided to add a few points to my EE profile by doing my wife's ECA. She has got Bachelor's from one university and then Master's from another. DO I need to send transcripts from both universities to WES, or only from the one where she got Master's?