There's no way to prove it either way. My thinking is based on what I saw in the GCMS notes I got last year. The Background Check had a clear validity date. If any of the other elements are still 'In Progress' after that date, I am reasonably certain it would go into a check again because that is the only element which could be deemed security issue. I mean, physical presence in Canada will only 'improve', unlikely that you will lose your ability to comprehend English and the knowledge about Canada, once gained, is not lost. So that leaves only Background Check / Prohibitions which could be where the hold up is and these are clearly dependent on the speed of response from RCMP/CSIS; not CBSA because they would be tackling the Physical Presence verification.
This could perhaps be tracked and understood with greater clarity if the data was available and modelled but no two cases will be identical apart from families so suffice to say that IRCC operates in mysterious ways, beyond our comprehension. One thing is certain, the Oath queue is not FIFO.
I couldn't agree more with the frustration part. Probably best to forget about it for a few weeks now. Maybe I'll stop checking the system. It'll happen only when the officer handling the file decides it's time. Till then, it's just speculation and needless stress.