FSW WORLDWIDE

[VVV62]

According to the recent stats, throughout Oct-Dec, IRCC sent about 15k golden mails per month.
Subsequently, if we turn to my formula given through the link above, in 2022, IRCC will send this number of ITAs:
10,187 + N = 10,187 + 2*15,000 = 40,187 ITAs.

In the meantime, we all see regular PNP draws of about 500-1000 ITAs per month.
If this trend remains in 2022, ~10k applicants of the prognosed 40k will be PNPs.

Minimum 10k.

So, I think no more than 30k pre-ITA applicants (FSW+CEC) will be invited in 2022.

 

[wonderbly]

Any outlanders here ordered their GCMS notes recently? How long did it take? Are we still in the COVID pace group?
I'm considering ordering them again, but I don't want to wait 4 months again.

I ordered at the end of November. Exactly 1 month later I received an email requesting for a 45 day extension .

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

So, I think no more than 30k pre-ITA applicants (FSW+CEC) will be invited in 2022.

Hope you end up wrong because what you say means CRS cutoffs will be through the roof.

I ordered at the end of November. Exactly 1 month later I received an email requesting for a 45 day extension .

Try sending Fraser an email. Looks like the wait is about the same, they do let you know about the status of your app and your VO, and it's free. LMAO

 

[wonderbly]

Hope you end up wrong because what you say means CRS cutoffs will be through the roof.



Try sending Fraser an email. Looks like the wait is about the same, they do let you know about the status of your app and your VO, and it's free. LMAO

I think I'll do that, nothing to lose.

 

[wonderbly]

Sometime ago I emailed to the Ministry and got this response today.

Thank you for your correspondence of December 14, 2021, addressed to the Honourable Sean Fraser, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, concerning your application for permanent residence. I have been asked to respond to your concerns.



Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) records confirm that your application is being processed at the Case Processing Centre in Ottawa, where officials have recently (December 2021) received information in support of your application. Please be assured that you will be contacted as soon as the application has been completed.



At this time, applicants are encouraged to visit the How the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is affecting immigration, refugees, citizenship and passport services web page for up-to-date information related to their application.

What do you think "where officials have recently (December 2021) received information in support of your application" mean?

What info do I provide inthe email? UCI? Application number?

 

[VVV62]

Hope you end up wrong because what you say means CRS cutoffs will be through the roof.

Yeah, according to the CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool given here, the cutoffs seems to be 471+
Anyways, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

Yeah, according to the CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool given here, the cutoffs seems to be 471+
Anyways, I hope I'm wrong.

Damn I actually hadn't looked at the pool. 471+ is nothing for FSWs lol. There'd be new people joining the pool so gotta account for that too. That probably sits the lowest cutoff of 2022 around 473 or something. Not bad at all. So I take back what I said, nothing will be "through the roof".

 

[ElvisRamaj]

PNP draws are never a good (or bad) indicator since PNP draws have to continue as per the agreement between the provinces and the federal government. IRCC would be more than happy to also stop PNP draws but they simply cannot. Also, EE-based PNP is the exact same thing as EE-based FSW in terms of processing. The only substantial additional time a PNP app takes is the time it takes to get the nomination certificate. After that, the file is transferred from the province to IRCC and gets the same treatment as FSW. That's why some people say "PNP though" when they report "FSW" PPRs.

So, we have about 147,000 applicants in line for PR at a rate of 20k processed files per month and in 7 months the backlog is cleared, than what ?

We have an additional 7000 PNP and another month to clear them, then what ? IRCC stops ?

 

[sun2088]

That directive in the mandate letter is the only thing I find reassuring in the overall processing we'll see in 2022. Everything else looks shit to be honest.

That's the thing. Prior to that letter, everything was speculation as to IRCC's next move. We finally have something concrete, on paper which the current immigration minister will be evaluated on. The last time there was something on paper (i.e. the focus on inlanders), IRCC went apeshit and achieved their goal. Finally, another good point is that this Omicron virus isn't that serious (i.e. not as deadly as the Delta variant meaning that the government will probably chill the fuck out. So, of course anything can change but at this point, I think we will finally start to see a fuck ton of PPR's getting issued.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

So, we have about 147,000 applicants in line for PR at a rate of 20k processed files per month and in 7 months the backlog is cleared, than what ?

We have an additional 7000 PNP and another month to clear them, then what ? IRCC stops ?

The math is a bit wrong if you ask me. 20k per month is the CEC rate. They're processed super fast. Outland rate is probably 1/3rd of that. So we're looking at 15 - 21 months which is the same as the latest leaked average processing time for PNP and FSW.

 

[EscoBlades]

The “backlog” only remains a backlog until the number is reduced to an acceptable level. And then it becomes “processing inventory”. It won’t ever reach 0 as there is always some slack built into the system to cover the application to processing/ decay pipeline.

 

[VVV62]

IRCC stops ?

IRCC won't stop after the EE backlog is cleared since there are ~1.8m people stuck in the backlogs of other classes, such as Family Class, TR, or even refugees. I think it's absolutely impossible to finalize even a millon cases throughout 2022.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

The “backlog” only remains a backlog until the number is reduced to an acceptable level. And then it becomes “processing inventory”. It won’t ever reach 0 as there is always some slack built into the system to cover the application to processing/ decay pipeline.

True but there's absolutely no reason why IRCC should reallocate resources to FSW while there are still CEC files which can be finalized in 1/5th of the time (15 months vs 3 months). So FSW&PNP will see some perceived backlog (?) until CEC hits zero.

 

[GandiBaat]

The math is a bit wrong if you ask me. 20k per month is the CEC rate. They're processed super fast. Outland rate is probably 1/3rd of that. So we're looking at 15 - 21 months which is the same as the latest leaked average processing time for PNP and FSW.

During the thick of it, ie october or so FSW rate was like 600 or so per month.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

During the thick of it, ie october or so FSW rate was like 600 or so per month.

x10 that to approximate the rate when CEC backlog hits zero and resources are reallocated to FSW&CEC&PNP, about 5-6K / mo. Still gonna be pretty slow for outlanders.