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S

suzanne456

Star Member
Feb 13, 2020
112
66
PRANIT01 said:
Main reason is adding newly married spouse and newborn to the application, which pushed existing numbers.
Click to expand...
That would mean, there has been a neglible amount of pprs for "outlanders" if on the net of it, adding spouses and babies could increase the total. Sigh, this is dire
 
F

FurioGiunta

Hero Member
Nov 18, 2020
304
494
VVV62 said:
Hi guys, it's me again.

Let's compare the data from October and December and make some conclusions:
Category​
Inventory as of Oct 27, 2021Inventory as of Dec 15, 2021
CEC (EE)48,15724,675
CEC (No EE)6855
PNP (EE)37,56639,325
PNP (No EE)33,94327,421
FSW51,14754,529

There are 3 questions with possible answers:
1) Why did the number of FSW applicants grow?
----------I suppose it happened because IRCC shifted its focus on CEC. Meanwhile, FSW applicants add spouses and newborn kids to their applications. Although we all saw some FSW-O applicants on this forum who got their golden mails, I think the increment was higher that the number of COPRs.
2) What does No EE mean?
----------I don't actually know. However, I think it means paper applications (THIS POINT OF VIEW SHOULD BE CONFIRMED BY ANYONE WHO KNOWS FOR SURE)
3) Why did the number of PNP (EE) applicants grow?
----------According to the EE draws took place between Oct, 27 and Dec, 15, in sum, there were 2,420 ITAs sent, which corresponds to the increment.

As we can see, IRCC works mainly with the CEC (EE) and PNP (No EE) backlogs.
For CEC (EE): (48,157-24,675)/2 = 11,741 per month
For PNP (No EE): (33,943-27,421)/2 = 3,261 per month
In total, it's 11,741+3,261=15,002 per month which corresponds with the expected "finalizing speed of 15k" of IRCC.

As I mentioned before, in one of my previous posts, one of the strategy IRCC could follow is to shift its workforce from CEC to another category. I thought it would happen AFTER the CEC backlog is cleared... And the officers will be assigned to FSW, not PNP... Anyways, ~15k golden mails per month is a stable number, the main question is what IRCC will do after the CEC backlog is cleared.

My assumings for the first half of 2022:
- IRCC's capacity for the FSW, CEC, and PNP categories will remain around 15k COPRs per month.
- In the meantime, as we all know, IRCC plans to hire extra workforce. I hope it will take place in Jan-Feb, so there will be a chance to see the real PPR rain in this Spring.
- The CEC backlog will have been cleared by the end of February, 2022.
- IRCC will re-assign its officers who is responsible for CEC to FSW.
- It will take then about 4-5 month to clear the FSW backlog (June/July, 2022)
- CEC is ded. At least until April.
- PNP isn't ded. I suppose, we will see several PNP draws per month, but the number of ITAs per round will be below 1k.
Click to expand...
Good analysis. One would hope that they will allocate equal resources to FSW/PNP right from the beginning of the new year, since there is really no reason not to (no border restrictions and they are not in a rush to meet the yearly target). But then it would make things fair, which IRCC hates more than anything. It's sad that I probably won't be able to land until Q3. Two years of my life for this bullshit, what a colossal waste of time.
 
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S

slavicgirl

Hero Member
Oct 27, 2021
301
223
Checking VVV62's data one question occured to me:
Their Federal High Skilled (including CEC, FSW) target for 2022 is between 96250-112900. There are 79K people in backlog according to the file of VVV62. Not much room left for pre-ITA people for 2022..or maybe I misinterpret some data
 
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E

ElvisRamaj

Hero Member
Apr 26, 2021
824
1,861
34
Tirana, AL
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
0114
Concidently today, I did some research on my own.

If we look at the document below:
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda/resource/5582034d-8f89-49d5-8597-483d628078a1?inner_span=True

In October 2021 there were 49,315 Authorizations and Visas Issued for Permanent Residents.

That is an impressive number, because almost half of those is going to FSW.

Also, if we try to evaluate where the IRCC is right now with the file processing of FSW and take MyImmiTracker as a source of information, we can arrive at the following conclusions:
  • AORs from October 2019 more than 90% finished.
  • AORs from November 2019 more than 60% finished.
  • AORs from December 2019 more than 68% finished.
  • AORs from January 2020 more than 62% finished.
  • AORs from February 2020 more than 50% finished.
  • AORs from March 2020 more than 40% finished.
Not to mention that the files of every month have been touched and given PPR.

This leaves to believe that there is no way that the backlogs of FSWs wont be cleared by the end of April 2022 at a speed of almost 25,000 files per month.
 
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NavjotS123

NavjotS123

Hero Member
Jul 6, 2019
561
156
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
ElvisRamaj said:
Concidently today, I did some research on my own.

If we look at the document below:
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda/resource/5582034d-8f89-49d5-8597-483d628078a1?inner_span=True

In October 2021 there were 49,315 Authorizations and Visas Issued for Permanent Residents.

That is an impressive number, because almost half of those is going to FSW.

Also, if we try to evaluate where the IRCC is right now with the file processing of FSW and take MyImmiTracker as a source of information, we can arrive at the following conclusions:
  • AORs from October 2019 more than 90% finished.
  • AORs from November 2019 more than 60% finished.
  • AORs from December 2019 more than 68% finished.
  • AORs from January 2020 more than 62% finished.
  • AORs from February 2020 more than 50% finished.
  • AORs from March 2020 more than 40% finished.
Not to mention that the files of every month have been touched and given PPR.

This leaves to believe that there is no way that the backlogs of FSWs wont be cleared by the end of April 2022 at a speed of almost 25,000 files per month.
Click to expand...
I am not so sure about your analysis, but I doubt they will withhold draws till April. That would be a disaster. They have to start with cec draws by Feb, and moreover as it was in the mandate letter something for international students is coming up too.
 
NavjotS123

NavjotS123

Hero Member
Jul 6, 2019
561
156
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
NavjotS123 said:
I am not so sure about your analysis, but I doubt they will withhold draws till April. That would be a disaster. They have to start with cec draws by Feb, and moreover as it was in the mandate letter something for international students is coming up too.
Click to expand...
Moreover, the backlog is not just of ee. There is TR to PR plus all the permits and extensions and whatnot
 
seadrag0n

seadrag0n

Champion Member
Mar 6, 2018
2,785
2,491
ElvisRamaj said:
Concidently today, I did some research on my own.

If we look at the document below:
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda/resource/5582034d-8f89-49d5-8597-483d628078a1?inner_span=True

In October 2021 there were 49,315 Authorizations and Visas Issued for Permanent Residents.

That is an impressive number, because almost half of those is going to FSW.

Also, if we try to evaluate where the IRCC is right now with the file processing of FSW and take MyImmiTracker as a source of information, we can arrive at the following conclusions:
  • AORs from October 2019 more than 90% finished.
  • AORs from November 2019 more than 60% finished.
  • AORs from December 2019 more than 68% finished.
  • AORs from January 2020 more than 62% finished.
  • AORs from February 2020 more than 50% finished.
  • AORs from March 2020 more than 40% finished.
Not to mention that the files of every month have been touched and given PPR.

This leaves to believe that there is no way that the backlogs of FSWs wont be cleared by the end of April 2022 at a speed of almost 25,000 files per month.
Click to expand...
Another thing is the latest data is about persons, who cares about that. There can be 4 people in an application and if it is approved, 4 people are given PR from a single application. Not sure why these journalists are not asking for number of applications in the backlog. From earlier memos, pending applications were about half of number of "persons".
 
NavjotS123

NavjotS123

Hero Member
Jul 6, 2019
561
156
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
seadrag0n said:
Another thing is the latest data is about persons, who cares about that. There can be 4 people in an application and if it is approved, 4 people are given PR from a single application. Not sure why these journalists are not asking for number of applications in the backlog. From earlier memos, pending applications were about half of number of "persons".
Click to expand...
As each person is evaluated, ircc considers each person as an application
 
NavjotS123

NavjotS123

Hero Member
Jul 6, 2019
561
156
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
FurioGiunta said:
Where are you seeing this? There is no way ~25k FSW were approved in Oct 2021
Click to expand...
his analysis is not correct. I read an article on cic news where it stated IRCC is targeting 14k cec and only 500-600 fsw apps per month
 
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