Hi guys, it's me again.
Let's compare the data from October and December and make some conclusions:
Category | Inventory as of Oct 27, 2021 | Inventory as of Dec 15, 2021 |
CEC (EE) | 48,157 | 24,675 |
CEC (No EE) | 68 | 55 |
PNP (EE) | 37,566 | 39,325 |
PNP (No EE) | 33,943 | 27,421 |
FSW | 51,147 | 54,529 |
There are 3 questions with possible answers:
1) Why did the number of FSW applicants grow?
----------I suppose it happened because IRCC shifted its focus on CEC. Meanwhile, FSW applicants add spouses and newborn kids to their applications. Although we all saw some FSW-O applicants on this forum who got their golden mails, I think the increment was higher that the number of COPRs.
2) What does No EE mean?
----------I don't actually know. However, I think it means paper applications (THIS POINT OF VIEW SHOULD BE CONFIRMED BY ANYONE WHO KNOWS FOR SURE)
3) Why did the number of PNP (EE) applicants grow?
----------According to the EE draws took place between Oct, 27 and Dec, 15, in sum, there were 2,420 ITAs sent, which corresponds to the increment.
As we can see, IRCC works mainly with the CEC (EE) and PNP (No EE) backlogs.
For CEC (EE): (48,157-24,675)/2 = 11,741 per month
For PNP (No EE): (33,943-27,421)/2 = 3,261 per month
In total, it's 11,741+3,261=15,002 per month which corresponds with the expected "finalizing speed of 15k" of IRCC.
As I mentioned before, in one of my previous posts, one of the strategy IRCC could follow is to shift its workforce from CEC to another category. I thought it would happen AFTER the CEC backlog is cleared... And the officers will be assigned to FSW, not PNP... Anyways, ~15k golden mails per month is a stable number, the main question is what IRCC will do after the CEC backlog is cleared.
My assumings for the first half of 2022:
- IRCC's capacity for the FSW, CEC, and PNP categories will remain around 15k COPRs per month.
- In the meantime, as we all know, IRCC plans to hire extra workforce. I hope it will take place in Jan-Feb, so there will be a chance to see the real PPR rain in this Spring.
- The CEC backlog will have been cleared by the end of February, 2022.
- IRCC will re-assign its officers who is responsible for CEC to FSW.
- It will take then about 4-5 month to clear the FSW backlog (June/July, 2022)
- CEC is ded. At least until April.
- PNP isn't ded. I suppose, we will see several PNP draws per month, but the number of ITAs per round will be below 1k.