Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[bhagwant12]

Thanks bhagwant12

I studied at home by myself... No teacher, no nothing. Here are the things that I used/did:

1) Pimsleur (all five levels, with each lesson repeated at least 4 or 5 times)

2) Assimil French with Ease and Assimil Using French

3) Various textbooks (Alter Ego 2, 3, 4, and half of 5; Belleville B1, B2; Rond Point 2; Streetwise French [this one isn't exactly a textbook])

4) YouTube videos to try and understand specific grammatical points (Learn French With Vincent, Learn French With Alexa and some others)

5) Watched French TV online (BFMTV, CNEWS, Franceinfo, France24)

6) Watched French parliamentary debates (That Melanchon dude is awesome; I know nothing about politics, but he speaks with a lot of conviction and gets you hooked)

7) Weekly calls with language partners on the app HelloTalk to practice my speaking

8) Towards the end, I would write a paragraph or two and send them to my language partners for correction; that REALLY saved my life

9) Changed the language of my devices to French

10) Read ALL Sherlock Holmes stories in French

As for how long every day, I am lucky in that I have tons of free time every day, so I studied French a lot... At least 3 or 4 hours even on a "bad" day.

That's really encouraging,

Bon courage pour l'avenir

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Increasing number of ITA to 4200 is an indication that they are trying to drop the CRS. Hopefully all program draws resume soon. Or they surprise us with an unexpected draw

I wouldn't get my hope up so high if I were you because we all knew what happened the last time we had a huge draw in February. I hope it doesn't translate to a momentary pause of the FSW draws this time around.

 

[seadrag0n]

Increasing number of ITA to 4200 is an indication that they are trying to drop the CRS. Hopefully all program draws resume soon. Or they surprise us with an unexpected draw

This increase happened because many ITA's are getting wasted, check some of the discussion on the forum, applications are being returned as incomplete for silliest of reasons. A similar draw happened at the start of the year with 4500 invites.

 

[EscoBlades]

Increasing number of ITA to 4200 is an indication that they are trying to drop the CRS.

No it isn’t.

 

[jrossi]

Increasing number of ITA to 4200 is an indication that they are trying to drop the CRS. Hopefully all program draws resume soon. Or they surprise us with an unexpected draw

I don't think that they're trying to drop the CRS score. They get nothing out of doing this. But... If IRCC really had any intention to reduce the number of ITAs to compensate higher unemployment rates, or simply because they wouldn't be able to process all the applications, they certainly would have A LOT of previous background to do that.
Stop me if I'm wrong, but I believe 2020 has been the year with the most ITAs issued so far, on the entire EE history. I've never seem such a high level os 3,900 ITAs being draw every 15 weeks, non-stop. Even FST aren't stopping IRCC from continuing with the fortnightly 3,900 draws! (while in the past, we would always had twice a year draws with very low number of ITAs (<1000) for FST'S only draws, while all other programs were left behind for 4 weeks)
So, I'm very optimistic about the future of EE, but... I'm really starting to think the days for FSWs are fading away, and that the PNP/CEC - GENERAL - PNP/CEC - GENERAL pattern is here to stay. Unfortunately. I wouldn't count on scores dropping much more than they are right now. Even 4200 ITAs weren't enough to drop 2 points! Imagine what we'll see once all IELTS and TCFs are back to normal? If the pattern PNP/CEC/GENERAL persists, 475 really is the new normal.

 

[ns317]

That's correct. Last draw was a real eye-opener. Even with the extra 300 invites, only 13 months' worth backed up profiles were called (an approximate metric that I've been using to calculate the density. July end 476 was the August 5 draw cut-off and August end 475 was the September 2 draw cut-off. So the train moved around 13 months before stopping, if you can visualize what I'm trying to say). The equivalent amount of distance travelled between the July 8th and August 5th draws was close to 30 months.

I applied to the OINP over the weekend as I don't have faith in a direct ITA anymore even with 474. The inflow is increasing quite a lot.

 

[shadow_of_life]

That's correct. Last draw was a real eye-opener. Even with the extra 300 invites, only 13 months' worth backed up profiles were called (an approximate metric that I've been using to calculate the density. July end 476 was the August 5 draw cut-off and August end 475 was the September 2 draw cut-off. So the train moved around 13 months before stopping, if you can visualize what I'm trying to say). The equivalent amount of distance travelled between the July 8th and August 5th draws was close to 30 months.

I applied to the OINP over the weekend as I don't have faith in a direct ITA anymore even with 474. The inflow is increasing quite a lot.

Same here. Don't risk your chance to migrate to Canada just to save 1500CAD. You have gone this far.

 

[Emman O.]

I don't think that they're trying to drop the CRS score. They get nothing out of doing this. But... If IRCC really had any intention to reduce the number of ITAs to compensate higher unemployment rates, or simply because they wouldn't be able to process all the applications, they certainly would have A LOT of previous background to do that.
Stop me if I'm wrong, but I believe 2020 has been the year with the most ITAs issued so far, on the entire EE history. I've never seem such a high level os 3,900 ITAs being draw every 15 weeks, non-stop. Even FST aren't stopping IRCC from continuing with the fortnightly 3,900 draws! (while in the past, we would always had twice a year draws with very low number of ITAs (<1000) for FST'S only draws, while all other programs were left behind for 4 weeks)
So, I'm very optimistic about the future of EE, but... I'm really starting to think the days for FSWs are fading away, and that the PNP/CEC - GENERAL - PNP/CEC - GENERAL pattern is here to stay. Unfortunately. I wouldn't count on scores dropping much more than they are right now. Even 4200 ITAs weren't enough to drop 2 points! Imagine what we'll see once all IELTS and TCFs are back to normal? If the pattern PNP/CEC/GENERAL persists, 475 really is the new normal.

The cut off will drop, and there's no new normal. They will soon restart bi monthly draws.

 

[EscoBlades]

The cut off will drop, and there's no new normal. They will soon restart bi monthly draws.

There is no indication they will do anything even remotely resembling historical data. Speculation is purely that...speculation. With some more pie-in-the-sky than others.

 

[ns317]

If you are not calm with 474, I won't consider your earlier analysis. Seems you are just plain negative-minded, lol.

I’d rather be safe with some negativity than build castles in the air. I had fallen into that trap in these threads this time last year, when I trusted all the random predictions and optimism. Delayed the start of my French preparation by 2/3 months.

Of course, everyone’s journey is different and priorities are different too.

 

[Emman O.]

I’d rather be safe with some negativity than build castles in the air. I had fallen into that trap in these threads this time last year, when I trusted all the random predictions and optimism. Delayed the start of my French preparation by 2/3 months.

Ok. Now I understand why you are agitated.

 

[miami_beach]

If CIC goes back to all programs draw bi-monthly, high chance it drops to 470.

I have just tried to model the data available to us. And if the current trend to continue, the CRS cut-off would be dropping much faster than expected.

 

[iam_ij]

Dont lose hope guys, be optimistic! We will all be in Canada soon

 

[iam_ij]

I have just tried to model the data available to us. And if the current trend to continue, the CRS cut-off would be dropping much faster than expected.

There is a big influx of candidates tho in the range 470-480

 

[jrossi]

I’d rather be safe with some negativity than build castles in the air. I had fallen into that trap in these threads this time last year, when I trusted all the random predictions and optimism. Delayed the start of my French preparation by 2/3 months.

Of course, everyone’s journey is different and priorities are different too.

Exactly. Back in January, I heard a TON of people saying “don’t worry 469 is more than enough”. If I had relied on the “optimistic” approach, I would never receive my ITA (yes, I believe scores won’t come even close to touch 469 again, unless something drastic happens in the EE rules).
I don’t believe there’s space for optimism when it comes to Express Entry. If your score is under the last draw cutoff, you simply need to work really hard to improve it, instead of praying for it to go down.
Otherwise, you must be ready to accept the possibility of failing.