Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[pratibha92]

Hey all! I am new here
I am going slightly off topic. How much my experience letter should match with the NOC description? In my case there is a 50% match. Are visa officers too strict when it comes to matching each line on letter with the respective line in NOC?
Thank you!

 

[jrossi]

Even that won't stop the scores from dropping, it will only delay the drop for a couple more rounds. Situation isn't getting any better in most part of the world.

Yeah, I really hope you're right. More because of the IELTS part than the WES part.
To be clear: I definitely expect the rate of new candidates entering the 471+ range to increase from now on. IELTS has reopened in many countries, and WES right now is actually (believe it or not) processing ECAs FASTER than they did before (I already heard more than half-dozen comments in facebook and whatsapp groups of people who got their ECAs in less than 1 week after their documentation arrived at the WES office! Insane!!!).

Sure, there's still the major problem about how these people will actually get the documentations from their universities, as *some* of them are still closed. But, let's face it: even though the health crisis now is WAYYY worst them it was back in March, the world has just started reopening, regardless of that. WES is working again, I can attempt IELTS next week if I want... I have my TCF exam schedule for next month. And, look, I'm on the 2nd most affected country on the entire world!
So, I do think expecting anything less than 1.000-1.500 candidates/fortnightly, is unrealistic. Sure, still a smaller number than the usual 3500-4000 candidates that we used to see on January/February, but still... as time goes by, that rate will just increase and increase.
As a candidate sitting at 469, I definitely expect to see the CRS cutoff touching the highs 460s in the coming 2-3 draws. But, I'm not holding my breath. Anything can happen now.

 

[BlindGoku]

I was about to say that. IF IRCC decides to do a B2B on July 29th, I would bet it will be a FST one. Unfortunately.

Why would they conduct a FST exclusive draw now after 4 months of just CEC/PNP? Seems like its the last thing they would now, I think there is a higher chance for them tho go back to CEC/PNP rather than a FST exclusive one. FST account only to something like 5% of EE ITAs, and last year I believe there was only one FST exclusive with like 500 ITAs.
Everything points to all inclusive draws for the next few rounds, unless they want to alternate between All programs and CEC/PNP.

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Yeah, I really hope you're right. More because of the IELTS part than the WES part.
To be clear: I definitely expect the rate of new candidates entering the 471+ range to increase from now on. IELTS has reopened in many countries, and WES right now is actually (believe it or not) processing ECAs FASTER than they did before (I already heard more than half-dozen comments in facebook and whatsapp groups of people who got their ECAs in less than 1 week after their documentation arrived at the WES office! Insane!!!).

Sure, there's still the major problem about how these people will actually get the documentations from their universities, as *some* of them are still closed. But, let's face it: even though the health crisis now is WAYYY worst them it was back in March, the world has just started reopening, regardless of that. WES is working again, I can attempt IELTS next week if I want... I have my TCF exam schedule for next month. And, look, I'm on the 2nd most affected country on the entire world!
So, I do think expecting anything less than 1.000-1.500 candidates/fortnightly, is unrealistic. Sure, still a smaller number than the usual 3500-4000 candidates that we used to see on January/February, but still... as time goes by, that rate will just increase and increase.
As a candidate sitting at 469, I definitely expect to see the CRS cutoff touching the highs 460s in the coming 2-3 draws. But, I'm not holding my breath. Anything can happen now.

Well, even if there are 2000 candidates joining the pool every two weeks, not all of them would score as high as 471-480. I'm from Nigeria where IDP has been conducting IELTS bi-weekly since May 23rd. I have a lot of friends that have gotten positive IELTS results, WES received their credentials a while ago and sent verification to school but no school is opened at the moment so responses are being delayed. WES went as far as collaborating with a body to transmit transcripts electronically but many of those schools do not accept this means as they don't trust the company. It's difficult for scores to remain as high as it were pre-covid because there are just so many factors affecting many applicants at the moment - beyond WES and IELTS.

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Why would they conduct a FST exclusive draw now after 4 months of just CEC/PNP? Seems like its the last thing they would now, I think there is a higher chance for them tho go back to CEC/PNP rather than a FST exclusive one. FST account only to something like 5% of EE ITAs, and last year I believe there was only one FST exclusive with like 500 ITAs.
Everything points to all inclusive draws for the next few rounds, unless they want to alternate between All programs and CEC/PNP.

I don't think there'd be FST-only draw any time soon as well but with IRCC, you never know so let's just keep our fingers crossed.

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Hey all! I am new here
I am going slightly off topic. How much my experience letter should match with the NOC description? In my case there is a 50% match. Are visa officers too strict when it comes to matching each line on letter with the respective line in NOC?
Thank you!

People do advice 70%. I will suggest that you give your reference letter to an expert for perusal. It may be that you are matching the duties with a wrong NOC.

 

[MTharwat94]

Guys i have a question, i received today my wes report after adding the new credential which is a Post graduate diploma so currently i'm adding it to my express entry account.

When entering the diploma, i'll add the new ECA report number which i received but I had entered my bachelor before when i opened the account months ago so should i modify my bachelor & add the new ECA report number which i received today or leave it as it is with the original eca report number i received a year ago ??

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Guys i have a question, i received today my wes report after adding the new credential which is a Post graduate diploma so currently i'm adding it to my express entry account.

When entering the diploma, i'll add the new ECA report number which i received but I had entered my bachelor before when i opened the account months ago so should i modify my bachelor & add the new ECA report number which i received today or leave it as it is with the original eca report number i received a year ago ??

Yes, use the new ECA report number.

 

[Toorkaur]

601-1200	360
501-600	652
491-500	483
481-490	1,600
471-480	4,561

That is 360+652+483+1600+4561 = 7656 profiles above 471 prior to last draw.
Last draw was 3900, so remaining, 7656-3900 = 3756

Right after the last draw, they should have 3756+ 200 (from two days between the table data and draw) = 3956 i.e. 4000 aprox.

From past trends and recent reality, there can be atleast 500-700 new profiles in 471+ bracket by coming Wednesday. That will be 4000+700 = 4700 profiles above 471 CRS for the 22nd July draw. A draw with 3900 ITAs should clear all profiles above 472 or 471 with a cut off from March 2020.

Just my predictions, feel free to join...

your analysis make sense, just wishing there are not many new files in the pool from last draw to next draw. fingers crossed!

 

[jrossi]

Well, even if there are 2000 candidates joining the pool every two weeks, not all of them would score as high as 471-480. I'm from Nigeria where IDP has been conducting IELTS bi-weekly since May 23rd. I have a lot of friends that have gotten positive IELTS results, WES received their credentials a while ago and sent verification to school but no school is opened at the moment so responses are being delayed. WES went as far as collaborating with a body to transmit transcripts electronically but many of those schools do not accept this means as they don't trust the company. It's difficult for scores to remain as high as it were pre-covid because there are just so many factors affecting many applicants at the moment - beyond WES and IELTS.

When I'm talking about 1,000-1,500 candidates/fortnightly, I mean exactly in the 471+ range, not on the whole pool.
From past few draws, the rate of new candidates in the 471-600 range has been fluctuating between 400-1100 candidates added each 14 days (that means, an INCREASE in the *total* number of candidates in that range). But, take in consideration that we don't know how many CEC candidates in that range were being invited each round (therefore, if the 471+ range increases by 500 candidates, it means MORE than 500 candidates entered the pool in the meantime, because there were certainly CEC candidates that were invited and left empty spots in the pool). So, my bet would be that the actual increase in the range, every 2 weeks, has been between 1,000 and 1,500 candidates.

 

[lone_ranger]

When I'm talking about 1,000-1,500 candidates/fortnightly, I mean exactly in the 471+ range, not on the whole pool.
From past few draws, the rate of new candidates in the 471-600 range has been fluctuating between 400-1100 candidates added each 14 days (that means, an INCREASE in the *total* number of candidates in that range). But, take in consideration that we don't know how many CEC candidates in that range were being invited each round (therefore, if the 471+ range increases by 500 candidates, it means MORE than 500 candidates entered the pool in the meantime, because there were certainly CEC candidates that were invited and left empty spots in the pool). So, my bet would be that the actual increase in the range, every 2 weeks, has been between 1,000 and 1,500 candidates.

Yup, the change in pool slab 471 - 480 in last CEC draw and recent FSW draw was somewhat around 900 profiles. So let's assume the change of 1,400 profile. The score would be somewhat around 473-4 I guess. The real effect we would be able to see in draw after that keeping the other factors constant obv.

 

[Dilipbharti]

Hi,
I have a question, I have deleted my wife's experience from my express entry profile and will add in personal history once we receive the ITA, because getting a reference letter is difficult. Thr is no issue in doing this correct. Kindly guide.

Thanks

 

[ns317]

When I'm talking about 1,000-1,500 candidates/fortnightly, I mean exactly in the 471+ range, not on the whole pool.
From past few draws, the rate of new candidates in the 471-600 range has been fluctuating between 400-1100 candidates added each 14 days (that means, an INCREASE in the *total* number of candidates in that range). But, take in consideration that we don't know how many CEC candidates in that range were being invited each round (therefore, if the 471+ range increases by 500 candidates, it means MORE than 500 candidates entered the pool in the meantime, because there were certainly CEC candidates that were invited and left empty spots in the pool). So, my bet would be that the actual increase in the range, every 2 weeks, has been between 1,000 and 1,500 candidates.

Correct. I’m considering the likeliest pool addition number over two weeks from 470+ as 1500 as well, with a possibility that it could be as much as 2000.

I don’t think the cutoff for the next draw will be lower than 473, and not higher than 475.

 

[DamK]

Hi Guys,
I am working as a BMC remedy web application support team (operations support) member for the past 3 years. Can anyone please help me what should be my NOC code. Pls help.

 

[ns317]

I am sooo glad that this happened. 3rd draw from this one we will see 460s cut off based on my extrapolated guess. I am on 466

				Change from last draw			Change from last draw			Change from last draw			Change from last draw			Change from last draw			Change from last draw			Change from last draw			Change from last draw
601-1200	448	601-1200	479	31	601-1200	65	-414	601-1200	461	396	601-1200	482	21	601-1200	310	-172	601-1200	288	-22	601-1200	316	28	601-1200	360	44
501-600	254	501-600	390	136	501-600	213	-177	501-600	318	105	501-600	417	99	501-600	433	16	501-600	561	128	501-600	543	-18	501-600	652	109
491-500	197	491-500	317	120	491-500	190	-127	491-500	267	77	491-500	356	89	491-500	329	-27	491-500	411	82	491-500	425	14	491-500	483	58
481-490	421	481-490	910	489	481-490	746	-164	481-490	924	178	481-490	1,117	193	481-490	1,168	51	481-490	1,355	187	481-490	1,429	74	481-490	1,600	171
471-480	1,047	471-480	2,423	1,376	471-480	2,233	-190	471-480	2,635	402	471-480	3,140	505	471-480	3,311	171	471-480	3,803	492	471-480	4,015	212	471-480	4,561	546
461-470	9,437	461-470	9,265	-172	461-470	8,088	-1177	461-470	7,157	-931	461-470	7,053	-104	461-470	6,986	-67	461-470	7,250	264	461-470	7,290	40	461-470	7,468	178
451-460	10,502	451-460	10,711	209	451-460	10,949	238	451-460	9,725	-1224	451-460	8,746	-979	451-460	8,070	-676	451-460	8,135	65	451-460	8,085	-50	451-460	8,191	106
				2189​			-2011​			-997​			-176​			-704​			1196​			300​			1212​

^ This post is one with good raw data.

We should be considering the trends of the last 2 draws or so, and not from before when we were in the middle of pandemic shut-downs and authorities were fumbling. Things are certainly moving much faster now with all parties involved processing requirements faster than they used to from March to May.

Over the last two-week period between draws, there was an increase of ~920 profiles in the pool from 470+. HOWEVER, this only represents the inflow of FSW candidates because the CEC additions would have been picked up in the draw and wouldn't be reflected in the pool numbers. We know from IRCC reports that CEC candidates form 60-70% of the pool in the 470+ range. So the total inflow can be extrapolated to be approximately 2,200 with 2,500 as a highly conservative estimate.

Over the two-week period before that, the equivalent number was 410 for FSW profiles, so approx. 1,200 for all profiles combined.

Over the two-week period before that, it was ~900 again for FSW, so maybe 2,200 for all profiles combined.

So there's a good chance there would be 2,500 new profiles in the pool between July 8 and July 22 at 470+ scores. With the 4,000 odd profiles left-over in that range, it's likely the cut-off will be 473-475. (I've taken some further approximations for profiles per score to arrive at this range).

For those who have scores that are, say, less than 468 or so, it really is a good idea to try to improve your score by whatever means possible. Because as the data demonstrates, the inflow really isn't down to a trickle. Canada immigration remains extremely popular and there are plenty of people with scores above 470+ entering the pool every day.