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Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

A

a_1188

Star Member
Feb 7, 2019
99
25
Dheana90 said:
Only those who has score of 475 and above who entered the EE pool before 29 August will get ITA,dear..
Click to expand...
So if they entered the EE pool before Aug 29 and have a score of 475, shouldn't they have already been picked up in last draw (2nd October)? which had cut off of 464 and date of Sept 20?
 
C

Catnat

Star Member
Feb 9, 2019
55
23
Angel1113 said:
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
Updated (October 30th)
  • 460+ (Total 39): | Brain_Drain: 475 | stepass: 474 | Arsh45: 474 | elpoyoloco: 474 | adilgigyani: 473 | vinegarandsalt: 473 | HariPriya12: 471 | EricD: 471 | Ria-sharma: 469 | Mandeep1989: 469 | mudjawd: 468 | cshetna: 468 | Alina2222: 468 | sri8707 : 467 | Tahsina89: 466 | hkabz: 466 | Tanvirk: 465 | cas009: 465 | umayash: 465 | Ca_karan: 464 | imtiaz_canada: 464 | Anu66: 463 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | BindhuMadhvi: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Dimpysimple: 462 | aikay: 462 | cas009: 462 | gobsaini: 462 | haris_raseed: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461| sinmansion: 461 | bambisp: 461 | cdddelhi: 461 |
  • 455-460 (Total 77) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Rickygugu: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Nandita16: 459 | haider_Ali: 459 | WunderCat: 459 | Shawan: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | blueshark: 458 | Kumar Vipul Shrivastva: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Imran_114: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 | Hsiddiqui: 455 |
  • 454-450 (Total 64) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | SlowBurn: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | arvw: 453 | AR7: 453 | tokalaangel: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |
  • 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |
If your score is not included in the list or score is changed please reply to this post with your current score. Thanks!
Click to expand...
Please update my score to 458
 
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C

Catnat

Star Member
Feb 9, 2019
55
23
Aniruddha Pondhe said:
How often do they send out PNPs? More specifically BC & ON PNPs?
Click to expand...
Ontario's last major PNP draw was in August and they've met their quota for this year so there'll be no more.
BC has draws every month. But Saskatchewan has pretty big draws too and they also happen every month.
 
Dheana90

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
a_1188 said:
So if they entered the EE pool before Aug 29 and have a score of 475, shouldn't they have already been picked up in last draw (2nd October)? which had cut off of 464 and date of Sept 20?
Click to expand...
Yes,that's correct.

But those people must have had score below 464 before and it was increased due to few factors such as(work exp, ielts score or another ECA) that gave them more points. Updating EE profile because of an increase in points does not change the submission date,dear. So,let's say they initially submitted their profile on 1st Aug and then their CRS point increase and they update their profile with the new score on 21st Sep, their submission date will still be 1st Aug. An increase in CRS score of EE profile doesn't affect submission date,dear..I hope it's clear now :)
 
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A

a_1188

Star Member
Feb 7, 2019
99
25
Dheana90 said:
Yes,that's correct.

But those people must have had score below 464 before and it was increased due to few factors such as(work exp, ielts score or another ECA) that gave them more points. Updating EE profile because of an increase in points does not change the submission date,dear. So,let's say they initially submitted their profile on 1st Aug and then they CRS point increase and they update their profile with the new score on 21st Sep, their submission date will still be 1st Aug. An increase in CRS score of EE profile doesn't affect submission date,dear..I hope it's clear now :)
Click to expand...
Yes, it makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.
however I'm a little surprised that all 3900 picked had an increase in score that too in just 3-4 weeks.
 
Dheana90

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
a_1188 said:
Yes, it makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.
however I'm a little surprised that all 3900 picked had an increase in score that too in just 3-4 weeks.
Click to expand...
It's no surprise,dear...It happened before in May draws. 4 week gas between draws are really dangerous. Canada's EE program is becoming one of the most sought after PR program from around the world so it's expected that the score will jump that much. A hugh number of PNP nominations also contributed to high cut of score (1,255 as of 25th Oct) and there might be more added between 25th Oct-30th Oct. Furthermore, the competition in getting ITA has becoming tougher day-by-day, people are trying their best in anyway possible to increase their CRS score so those who has 440-450 before are moving to higher range now.
 
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A

a_1188

Star Member
Feb 7, 2019
99
25
Dheana90 said:
It's no surprise,dear...It happened before in May draws. 4 week gas between draws are really dangerous. Canada's EE program is becoming one of the most sought after PR program from around the world so it's expected that the score will jump that much. A hugh number of PNP nominations also contributed to high cut of score (1,255 as of 25th Oct) and there might be more added between 25th Oct-30th Oct. Furthermore, the conpetition in getting ITA has becoming tougher day-by-day, people are trying theie best in anyway possible to increase their CRS score so those who has 440-450 before are moving to higher range now.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the detailed response. I didnt know all these details.
 
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B

bambisp

Star Member
Oct 23, 2019
165
68
Dheana90 said:
Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 13th Nov draw and onwards

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833

It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 25, 2019:
601-1,200= 1,255
451-600=12,999
441-450= 9,045

It means in 14 days from Oct 11nd to Oct 25th, there where:
601-1,200 = 53 profile/day (1,255-509=746/14days)

451-600 = 241prof/day (12,999-9,632= 3,367/14days)

441-450 = 15 prof/day(9,045-8,833= 212/14days)

For the range 451-600,let's take the middle number between 314 and 241(278) as the number of people/day who enter the EE pool.

So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,520(1,255+265(53x5days)
451-600=14,389(12,999+1,390(278x5d)
441-450= 9,120(9,045+75(15x5days))


Suppose that from the newly added 7,579(2,822+3,367+1,390) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, 50% of it (3697) will be distributed equally to (471-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,789/10=344profile/score and the other half will be distributed equally to 451-470.Thus,it will make 3,789/20=189profile/score.


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)
441-450= 9,120

Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

475 score = 28
471-474= 344people/score
465-470=189people/score
451-464= 675people/score

For the range 451-600,let's assume that the number of people/day who enter the EE pool will reduce further to 241people/day.

So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=15,383(12,009+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,330(9,120+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 469-471
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-28(of 475 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-344(of 474 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-344(of 473 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-344(of 472 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-344(of 471 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-189(of 470 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-189(of 469 left after 30th Oct draw)
-68(of 109 of 469 newly added score).

After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 469, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =12,225(15,383-3,158)
441-450= 9,330

Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 12,225 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only.

469 score = 41
465-468=189people/score
451-464= 784people/score

So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=15,599(12,225+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,540(9,330+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-41(of 469 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 469 newly added score)
-189(of 468 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 468 newly added score)
-189(of 467 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 467 newly added score)
-189(of 466 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 466 newly added score)
-189(of 465 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 465 newly added score)
-508(of 784 of 464 left after 13th Nov draw)


After 27th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =12,441(15,599-3,158)
441-450= 9,540

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 12,441 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464 score = 385
451-463= 893people/score

So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=15,815(12,441+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,750(9,540+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 27th Dec to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-109 (of 469 newly added score)
-109 (of 468 newly added score)
-109 (of 467 newly added score)
-109 (of 466 newly added score)
-109 (of 465 newly added score)
-385(of 464 left after 27th Nov draw)
-109 (of 464 newly added score)
-811(893 of 463 left after 27th Nov draw)


After 11th Dec draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 463, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =12,657(15,815-3,158)
441-450= 9,750

Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 12,657 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only.

463 score = 191
451-462= 1,002people/score

So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=371(53x7days)
451-600=14,344(12,657+1,687(241x7d)
441-450= 9,855(9,750+105(15x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,687 profile from 11th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,687/31=55profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 460-462
3,900 minus:
-371(601-1200)
-55 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-55 (of 480 newly added score)
-55 (of 479 newly added score)
-55(of 478 newly added score)
-55 (of 477 newly added score)
-55(of 476 newly added score)
-55(of 475 newly added score)
-55(of 474 newly added score)
-55(of 473 newly added score)
-55(of 472 newly added score)
-55(of 471 newly added score)
-55(of 470 newly added score)
-55(of 469 newly added score)
-55(of 468 newly added score)
-55(of 467 newly added score)
-55(of 466 newly added score)
-55(of 465 newly added score)
-55(of 464 newly added score)
-191(of 463 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55(of 463 newly added score)
-1,002(of 462 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55(of 462 newly added score)
-1,002(of 461 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55(of 461 newly added score)
-179(of 1,002 of 460 left after 11th Dec draw).
Click to expand...
fair enough. makes sense. aren't you anticipating a b2b draw though?? before the year ends...seems highly likely.
 
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