Ray of Hope - 128th Draw

[Lilia Canada]

My CRS Score is 450 . I really hope next round will bring some good news. May God help us through this challenging process.
Also, I found a really good website that just started that will be really helpful for us when we will get our ITA
https://www.immigrationmate.com/

 

[anukaran]

Hello Everyone,

I am at 459. I have only 2 draws left before my PGWP expires Really hoping to get it by then.

 

[keyur sharma]

Waiting for Conservatives to win the election

 

[Tousif_27]

Waiting for Conservatives to win the election

How does that help express entry program?

 

[indpnv]

Waiting for Conservatives to win the election

Scheer? It's gonna be same with him, just another globalist.
Are you talking about Bernier's PPC?

 

[keyur sharma]

How does that help express entry program?

Conservatives will reduce number of ITA for sure and they won’t say it publicly but it’s true. In past they did the same. I believe in Conservatives. Justin is just welcoming so many people which is good and important for Canada but more important is making life less affordable in which Justin failed.

 

[rajapanesar]

Hi Friends,

Why the processing time of PNP nominated candidate takes long time for getting pr than a normal candidate who get ITA directly?

Provinces send a notification of interest, NOI, to the deserving candidates. The candidates have to accept this offer to be in the process of getting nomination. NOI does not mean 600 points added at the instant, accepting the NOI starts a verification and validation process, where the applicant has to prove that everything they are saying in the forms is true to the liking of the province, call it a mini PR process. After this process is clear and one has passed everything, they get the nomination from the province and 600 points are added to the profile. This can take 40 to 120 days, depending on the province, after accepting the NOI.
Now this profile, with 600 added score, waits in the EE pool for the next draw. After getting ITA, the process is same as a regular candidate who got ITA based on their high CRS score.

 

[robin6869]

Scheer? It's gonna be same with him, just another globalist.
Are you talking about Bernier's PPC?

man he is just talking shit and trying to get people's attention. He is already PR in canada and one of those who used to get free chicken and alcohol from congress government in India during election, now talking about why conservatives should win and how trudeau failed. Just avoid him. Does not matter which party is elected, there will be slight difference in policies not big changes as Canada needs immigrants not some party.

 

[robin6869]

Waiting for Conservatives to win the election

yeah keep waiting, because that is all you can do when you do not have good job in canada and use your frustration here.

 

[Dheana90]

My score is 474, just got into the pool yesterday.

Okay. Let's do the estimation for CRS cut off for 16th Oct again as there is new high score of 474 in thr range 451-600.


After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200 =579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704

It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)

451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)

441-450 = 7prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)

So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

So, by 16th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=658(47x14days)
451-600=9,400(6,810+2,590(185x14d)
441-450= 8,837 (8,739+98(7x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,590 profile from 2nd Oct to 16th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 474 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 2,590/24=108profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-462
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-108 (of 474-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-108 (of 467 newly added score)
-108 (of 466 newly added score)
-108 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)



If there will be around 1,000 of people sitting at score range of 601-1200 before the next draw,then

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-463
3,900 minus:
-1,000(601-1200)
-108 (of 474-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-108 (of 467 newly added score)
-108 (of 466 newly added score)
-108 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 462 newly added score)
-38 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)

 

[ripul]

Waiting for Conservatives to win the election

Lol. Another insider

 

[robin6869]

Lol. Another insider

bro these kind of people are already PR in canada and due to lack of so many things can not secure good job so work in subways and timhortons as a baker and just throw their frustration here to show their existence. Nothing to worry bro just avoid such people.

 

[EnthuChap]

yeah keep waiting, because that is all you can do when you do not have good job in canada and use your frustration here.

Thumbs up to that!

 

[Mama mia]

Okay. Let's do the estimation for CRS cut off for 16th Oct again as there is new high score of 474 in thr range 451-600.


After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200 =579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704

It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)

451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)

441-450 = 7prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)

So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

So, by 16th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=658(47x14days)
451-600=9,400(6,810+2,590(185x14d)
441-450= 8,837 (8,739+98(7x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,590 profile from 2nd Oct to 16th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 474 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 2,590/24=108profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-462
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-108 (of 474-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-108 (of 467 newly added score)
-108 (of 466 newly added score)
-108 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 462 newly added score)
-380 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)



If there will be around 1,000 of people sitting at score range of 601-1200 before the next draw,then

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-463
3,900 minus:
-1,000(601-1200)
-108 (of 474-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-108 (of 467 newly added score)
-108 (of 466 newly added score)
-108 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-108 (of 462 newly added score)
-38 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)

Thumbs up for your analysis

 

[VKA]

Provinces send a notification of interest, NOI, to the deserving candidates. The candidates have to accept this offer to be in the process of getting nomination. NOI does not mean 600 points added at the instant, accepting the NOI starts a verification and validation process, where the applicant has to prove that everything they are saying in the forms is true to the liking of the province, call it a mini PR process. After this process is clear and one has passed everything, they get the nomination from the province and 600 points are added to the profile. This can take 40 to 120 days, depending on the province, after accepting the NOI.
Now this profile, with 600 added score, waits in the EE pool for the next draw. After getting ITA, the process is same as a regular candidate who got ITA based on their high CRS score.

In the same context I want to ask, supposedly, if a candidate receives NOI from a particular province today. Is it possible to hold the NOI and not accept it for few months just to see possible chances to get picked in normal EE draw. If for some reason the general EE draw doesn’t favour, he/she can accept the NOI and go through PNP.
Thanks