Let estimate the 16th Oct draw using this our own internal tracker and current published CRS data distribution on 27th Sept
After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200 =579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704
It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)
451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)
441-450 = 7prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)
So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))
After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739
Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.
So, by 16th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=658(47x14days)
451-600=9,400(6,810+2,590(185x14d)
441-450= 8,837 (8,739+98(7x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,590 profile from 2nd Oct to 16th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 471to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 2,590/21=123profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 460-462
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)
-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-486 (of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-68 (of 461 newly added score)
If there will be around 1,000 of people sitting at score range of 601-1200 before the next draw,then
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-462
3,900 minus:
-1,000(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)
-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-212 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)