Hi! I just looked at your excel sheet of prediction. Seems legit, with June 26th data, is this form still useful? Or it is going slightly better?
Ray of Hope - 121st Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
I disagree.I have different opinion.
Basically,
1 week draw followed by 3 week draw= 2 biweekly draws,
hence in long term it is same thing and nobody’s loss
Advantage:
One week draw can bring early relief to candidates in range 457-460 as it would bring down the cut off to 457-458 if it happens on 3rd July
You don't think about the effect of 3-week gap afterward. Yes, it will bring score down sooner but if you think that the score will only reduce as much as it is predicted as forthnightly draw than what's the point of one week draw. You clearly don't think about others who have score below 457 then as after 3-week gap, the score will be most likely go up again and might take few regular biweekly draw to reach cut off below 457. You should know how big the damage was because of the previous 3-4 week gap draw. It will be a loss to some people after.
Last edited:
In my opinion, if you get an ITA next month, submit your application on 1st Sep as they give you 60days time to apply anyway.
That whay, you will avoid problem with misinterpretation and be banned from applying for 5 years as you will already cross your 3 years work experience by 1st Sep.
Please read the information about acceoting invitation and applying for application on the CIC website from the below link.
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/submit-profile/respond-invitation.html
It’s sad that in late 2018 and most of 2019 it was under 450 and now that we need it goes higher and who knows when we will get the invitation. Patience and never give up.
This is a mental marathon.Sorry about this rant: I see my Canadian coworkers going everywhere they want to, no need to worry about losing jobs, having to start a new life, and worrying about parents, but I have to keep counting on time and please my supervisor. I feel sad and fed up with my current job, but I need it in case I need 3 years of exp to get ITA, which means another 12 months of suffering. I don't know about you but if immigration law changes later this year and makes things worst, I will go back to my home country and try to forget everything I have achieved in Canada. Friends, girlfriend, car, memories...anyway I am praying hard. Good luck.
Ok then. Let me explain this way:
Scenario 1:
Candidates removed by one week draw on 3rd July: 3350
Then a 3 week draw happens on 24th July.
Candidates removed by 3 week draw on 24th July: 3350
Hence total candidates removed by 24th July according to scenario1: 3350+3350=6700
Scenario2:
Candidates removed by biweekly draw on 10th July: 3350
Candidates removed by another biweekly draw on 24th July:3350
Total candidates removed by 24th July: 3350+3350= 6700
So on 24th July ,
Pool candidates removed by scenario 1= candidates removed by scenario 2
Where do you see the difference?
Ideally, this calculation won’t work. @Dheana90 is correct here mentioning the damage caused by 3 weeks gap.
We all (including me) are witnessing the damage done by CIC after Jan 30th draw. I being at 450 was quite certain that I’ll get my ITA but the draw behaviour and CRS cut-off has changed significantly after 3 weeks gap. Same problem occurred in May too.
Increased ITAs will bring some ease to upcoming cut-offs with fortnightly draws.
In order to get an ITA a month before your actual job completion date you would have to adjust your employment time elsewhere and in this case you would have to adjust your job start date. So, let’s say that in your EE application you have mentioned your job start date as August 1st but in your employment letter it’s mentioned as 1st September.
Now an officer reviewing your case (who is having a bad day) can construe this as misrepresentation of facts while some other officer (having a very good day) can let it slide after reading your LOE. So, I’d say it depends totally on the officer reviewing your case.
Personally I don’t think it’s a risk worth taking, consider the fact that you will need to wait for about 6 months after your submit your application, even if the officer ultimately approves your application you would keep worrying every single day of that waiting period, which I feel is far worse that waiting for another month or so.
There are two views to look at 1 week draw:
Logical/mathematical view:
There is no difference between (1week draw followed by 3 week draw ) and 2 biweekly draws as both way we are going to clear 6700 candidates by 24th July
Emotional view: everybody can have different opinions ,I respect that and hence, I have no comments
Moreover considering the ITA target to be achieved by cic, a one week draw might be followed by 2 week draws, nobody knows, cic has is very unpredictable
However one week draw solves the problem of 457-460 candidates temporarily if it happens today. Hence best solution is increase ITA size
So I am vouching for:
1. One week draw today
2. Increased ITA
EnthuChap
Hero Member
- Jun 9, 2014
- 605
- Category........
- PNP
- Visa Office......
- Sydney, NS
- NOC Code......
- 0601
- App. Filed.......
- 01-12-2019
- Doc's Request.
- 22-01-2020
- Nomination.....
- 26-11-2019
- AOR Received.
- 01-12-2019
- Med's Request
- 02-11-2019
- Med's Done....
- 17-01-2020
- Passport Req..
- 06-04-2021
- LANDED..........
- 10-09-2021
The precedent that we have is that CIC gives a 3 week gap after a back to back draw. A 3 week gap means CRS will shoot up and then we all wait for it to further drop back and this extends the wait of many applicants. It does a favour to those who get picked up but it sure leaves an after taste.There are two views to look at 1 week draw:
Logical/mathematical view:
There is no difference between (1week draw followed by 3 week draw ) and 2 biweekly draws as both way we are going to clear 6700 candidates by 24th July
Emotional view: everybody can have different opinions ,I respect that and hence, I have no comments
Moreover considering the ITA target to be achieved by cic, a one week draw might be followed by 2 week draws, nobody knows, cic has is very unpredictable
However one week draw solves the problem of 457-460 candidates temporarily if it happens today. Hence best solution is increase ITA size
So I am vouching for:
1. One week draw today
2. Increased ITA
I would be happy if they can do a B2B draw without a three week gap later. It's July now and if CIC are to achieve their intake goals then we can only hope for positives and it shall be demonstrated soon by them.
This calculation of yours does not justify your previous comment which you said 1 week draw followed by 3 week draw= 2 biweekly draws because you only take one factor for this calculation which is ITA numbers. For which, is still unknown. We may see an increase in ITA as well. Who knows? When doing a calculation, I think you have to consider factors such as the CRS cut off and the effect of the draw interval not only the ITA numbers. Yes, the ITA number might be the same as you said 3350. But you have to know that the cut off score will increase again if the interval of the draw date takes longer.
If you check the previous draw already, you can see that after the 3-week gap, the cut off always increases. Whereas with regular 2-weeks draw, it is evident that the score keeps on lowering. For example. if the draw happens today and the cut off score is 460 with the 3-week gap, the cut off score will most likely go up because more and more of new high scorer applicants enter the pool whithin those 3 weeks. Therefore, after 3 weeks gap, the cut off rank will be 463 or even 465 again. Where with forthnight draw, we already seen the decreasing cut off score. Let's say on the 10th July draw,the cut off score is 460, the next biweekly cutt off point will definitely lower as well, say 457.
So, it's unfair for people who have score of 460 who just missed the tie break or evwn people who has 459 who wish to get an ITA after the one week draw but have to wait longer because of an increase in cut off point.
So, that's the difference, my friend.
Last edited:
Hi Everyone,
Finally, my Ontario PNP file has been reached to final stage and will be approved anytime now. Hopefully, I'll get the nomination and 600 additional points before the next draw happens i.e., July 10.
Good luck to everyone, hope you all get your ITA's soon. Be positive, always
Finally, my Ontario PNP file has been reached to final stage and will be approved anytime now. Hopefully, I'll get the nomination and 600 additional points before the next draw happens i.e., July 10.
Good luck to everyone, hope you all get your ITA's soon. Be positive, always