My prediction:
12th June: 463 (+/-2)
26th June: 459 (+/-2)
10th July: 457 (+/-2)
After that... It will start coming down, but unlikely to break below the 450-451 mark.
This is based on a few assumptions:
- There are 240 people above 450 CRS that enter the pool everyday.
- 75% these people are 460+ CRS
- The remaining 25% are 450-460.
For people who are below 455
- 75% is a pretty big number, I am sure the percentage of 460+ is lower (however this is more likely to be the worst case).
- The assumption of all 240 above 450 CRS is also a bit wild - so the cutoff is likely to slide faster even if we have 5-10% of the 240 below 450
My CRS: 460
(Still waiting for my ECA, so not in the pool yet)
All the best everyone!