Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[Punitsingh]

Guys pls let me know what is wrong wid below prediction?
12th June CRS: 463

*Apart from below 3 assumptions rest of calculation is based on facts and figures

Assumptions made:
1. Same no of 450+ inflow will continue in June ie 223 per day
2. Draw comes on 12th June with 3350 ITA
3. Out of all candidates in range of 450-470:
a. 60% are from 450-460 slab
b. 40% are from 461-470 slab

Prediction starts:
After 1st May:
470+ = 0
450+ = almost 0

On 24th May, 450+ = 5353
450+ increase per day= 5353/24 = 223
So on 29th May, 450+ = 223*28= 6244
On 29th May draw 470+ candidates removed= 3350
Remaining (450-470) after 29th May = 6244-3350= 2894

From 1st May to 29th May:
470+ added= 3350/28= 120 per day
450-470 added= 223-120= 103 per day

450+ candidates added by June 12th:
470+ = 120*14 = 1680
(450-470)= 103*14= 1442

Total 450+ on 12th June = 1442+1680+2894= 6016
*2894 are leftover from previous draw
*1680 are 470+

ITA to be issued on 12th June= 3350
If we remove 470+ from 3350, then,
ITA issues to (450-470) scorers = 3350-1680= 1670
*This 1670 number will help reducing the cut-off

Now we need to calculate, how many candidates are sitting on a particular score, which is quite tough, let me give a try:

(450-470) candidates in 12th June draw= 6016-1680= 4336
Now I divide 4336 in two slabs, assuming density is higher in 450-460 range
Slab 1: (450-460) = 60% of 4336= 2601
Slab2 : (461-470) = 40% of 4336= 1735
No. Of candidates on each single score from 461-470= 1735/10= 173.5
Decrease in CRS score = 1670/173.5= 9.62
Hence my prediction = 470-9.62= 461 appox.
Now I put in some negativity factors which I cud not foresee and score can be 461+ 2= 463

In the same way you can calculate 26th June draw

Just noticed one more risk
450+ after 1st May= almost 0
450+ on 10th May= 2000 approx.
From 1st to 10th May increase per day= 2000/10= 200
450+ on 24th May= 5353
Added from 10th to 24th May= 5353-2000= 3353
From 10th to 24th May , increase per day= 3353/14= 239.5
I used 223 in previous calculation as an average, but fact is that this per day inflow of 450+ is increasing and it might be higher in June

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

Also regarding the elections

If conservatives come in power nothing is going to affect express entry system as they are the ones who introduced the system in 2015.

Another thing Canada has target of 1 million immigrants till 2021.

The only thing that might change is cut offwill increase because conservatives gave 600 points to job offers . But yet again everyone knows that getting lmia is not a piece of cake .

So all and all cut off will increase but nothing will happen to express entry .

This is my assumption .please feel free to comment

Politics is a tricky business. We have a better chance of predicting a correct b2b draw than predicting the political scenario post elections. I mean, sure they have a plan in force regarding immigration but what will prevent them from temporarily suspending it or altering it significantly to our disadvantage, if they find the political will to do so, and the numbers to get it through?

Also one friend of ours mentioned that the liberals are not our friends anymore. Sure they aren't. They are politicians after all. And this is election time. Things don't ever go smooth during elections now, do they?
But as far as immigration as a whole is concerned, i hope the conservatives don't secure power, at least not this while. A new roadblock, is the last thing we all need right now.

 

[pursuit]

Dear member, I am sitting on 443 and can increase my score max to 447( only if I get CLB10) but I don't think it will touch 447 in next 7-8 month, Is there is any PNP option I can check for 2174. Please suggest.

 

[SlyDigits]

I appreciate ur effort for the post but disagree with ur analysis that every day only 140-150 candidates wid 450+ are entering the pool
Actual data:
After May 1 draw 450+ candidates = 0
On 24th May 450+ = 5353
Per day addition = 5353/24= 223

How u calculated 140-150?

Your numbers are all wrong
On the 24th of may we have 5353 above 450 these were all added after may 1st
Meaning we have a daily increase of 223
I may 29th we have 6468 550+ in the pool after the draw we still have 3118 between 450 and 470
With an increase of 3122 every 14 days
Meaning only half the ppl over 450 gets ita every round the score will stay over 460 or even 465

Firstly, both your assumptions that profiles above 451 on May 1st was 0 is not accurate. The data available before May 10th is for April 26th, which means that as far as data was concerned, you both failed to account for the 14-day period before May 10th. Since your assumption of May 1st data was inaccurate, you calculation was also inaccurate.

If you are looking at statistics, then you need to look a bit further beyond the immediate figures.

Number of Profiles between 451-600 on:

1. Feb 28th: 2327
2. March 14th: 1981
3. March 29th: 1961
4. April 12th: 1903
5. April 26th: 1511
6. May 10th: 1668

I don't believe I need to mention that all profiles on a particular date (of data publishing) would be given ITA under their 3350 quota, hence each 14-day period would start with 0-profiles.

• Number of profiles added between Feb 28 and March 14: 141.5
• Number of profiles added between Mar 14 and March 29: 140.07
• Number of profiles added between Mar 29 and April 12: 135.5
• Number of profiles added between Apr 12 and April 26: 107.9
• Number of profiles added between Apr 26 and Mar 10: 119.1

Average profiles added in each 14-day period: 128.4 per day

Again, for the 600+ category, I don't believe I need to mention that all profiles on a particular date (of data publishing) would be given ITA under their 3350 quota, hence each 14-day period would start with 0-profiles.

Number of Profiles above 600 on:

1. Feb 28th: 253
2. March 14th: 209
3. March 29th: 246
4. April 12th: 273
5. April 26th: 279
6. May 10th: 317

• Number of profiles added between Feb 28 and March 14: 14.9
• Number of profiles added between Mar 14 and March 29: 17
• Number of profiles added between Mar 29 and April 12: 19.5
• Number of profiles added between Apr 12 and April 26: 19.9
• Number of profiles added between Apr 26 and Mar 10: 22.6

Average profiles added in each 14-day period: 18.6 per day

So average number of profiles added over 14-day period in 451-600 and 600+ categories: 146 (approximately)

You cannot look at one draw in isolation and even if you do, you have to look at data from the last date that data was available from.

 

[sarak1812]

Politics is a tricky business. We have a better chance of predicting a correct b2b draw than predicting the political scenario post elections. I mean, sure they have a plan in force regarding immigration but what will prevent them from temporarily suspending it or altering it significantly to our disadvantage, if they find the political will to do so, and the numbers to get it through?

Also one friend of ours mentioned that the liberals are not our friends anymore. Sure they aren't. They are politicians after all. And this is election time. Things don't ever go smooth during elections now, do they?
But as far as immigration as a whole is concerned, i hope the conservatives don't secure power, at least not this while. A new roadblock, is the last thing we all need right now.

I am not understanding what you are trying to say ... I didn't get a word.
All I know that it will get difficult but not impossible ...

 

[Zain1211]

Hi . Crs score 450 profile creation date 5th March 2019. Just got a interest from ontario for provincial nomination . My Noc is 1111. What should i do ? Wait for score to come down to 450 or think about going through this route.

 

[Punitsingh]

Firstly, both your assumptions that profiles above 451 on May 1st was 0 is not accurate. The data available before May 10th is for April 26th, which means that as far as data was concerned, you both failed to account for the 14-day period before May 10th. Since your assumption of May 1st data was inaccurate, you calculation was also inaccurate.

If you are looking at statistics, then you need to look a bit further beyond the immediate figures.

Number of Profiles between 451-600 on:

1. Feb 28th: 2327
2. March 14th: 1981
3. March 29th: 1961
4. April 12th: 1903
5. April 26th: 1511
6. May 10th: 1668

I don't believe I need to mention that all profiles on a particular date (of data publishing) would be given ITA under their 3350 quota, hence each 14-day period would start with 0-profiles.

• Number of profiles added between Feb 28 and March 14: 141.5
• Number of profiles added between Mar 14 and March 29: 140.07
• Number of profiles added between Mar 29 and April 12: 135.5
• Number of profiles added between Apr 12 and April 26: 107.9
• Number of profiles added between Apr 26 and Mar 10: 119.1

Average profiles added in each 14-day period: 128.4 per day

Again, for the 600+ category, I don't believe I need to mention that all profiles on a particular date (of data publishing) would be given ITA under their 3350 quota, hence each 14-day period would start with 0-profiles.

Number of Profiles above 600 on:

1. Feb 28th: 253
2. March 14th: 209
3. March 29th: 246
4. April 12th: 273
5. April 26th: 279
6. May 10th: 317

• Number of profiles added between Feb 28 and March 14: 14.9
• Number of profiles added between Mar 14 and March 29: 17
• Number of profiles added between Mar 29 and April 12: 19.5
• Number of profiles added between Apr 12 and April 26: 19.9
• Number of profiles added between Apr 26 and Mar 10: 22.6

Average profiles added in each 14-day period: 18.6 per day

So average number of profiles added over 14-day period in 451-600 and 600+ categories: 146 (approximately)

You cannot look at one draw in isolation and even if you do, you have to look at data from the last date that data was available from.

I just read first line of your reply which is again inaccurate.
How can u say that after 1st May draw there was somebody in pool with 451 or more points when cutoff was 450?

 

[Punitsingh]

Hi . Crs score 450 profile creation date 5th March 2019. Just got a interest from ontario for provincial nomination . My Noc is 1111. What should i do ? Wait for score to come down to 450 or think about going through this route.

Accept it quickly

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

I am not understanding what you are trying to say ... I didn't get a word.
All I know that it will get difficult but not impossible ...

In simple words what i meant was that we need an immigration friendly government at the federal level.

And about impossibility?
No country ever shuts down immigration completely. They just make it more difficult to get in. And difficulties are not welcome. And that's why I said that conservatives be not sworn into power. Now I am no expert in canadian politics, so take it with a pinch of salt, but from what I have been told, they are the less immigration friendly out of both.

As far as CRS is concerned, like demand and supply in a free market economy, it 'll stabilise eventually.

 

[Zain1211]

How much time do u have to accept expression of interest from Ontario ?

 

[SlyDigits]

I just read first line of your reply which is again inaccurate.
How can u say that after 1st May draw there was somebody in pool with 451 or more points when cutoff was 450?

See... you should always read the complete thing before replying. Otherwise you would have gotten your answer.

On one hand, you are choosing your starting point as the date of the draw, but on the other hand, you are choosing your end point as the date of the data-release? You have to either pick draw to draw or data-release to data-release.

Data is released every 14-days and is for data from that 14-day period!

• May 10th data of 1668 (451-600) was not from May1st to May10th, it is from April 26th to May 10th, which is 14-days, which is 119 per day.
• May 10th data of 317 (600+) was not from May1st to May10th, it is from April 26th to May 10th, which is 14-days, which is 22.6 per day.

Not that hard you know.

 

[sarak1812]

In simple words what i meant was that we need an immigration friendly government at the federal level.

And about impossibility?
No country ever shuts down immigration completely. They just make it more difficult to get in. And difficulties are not welcome. And that's why I said that conservatives be not sworn into power. Now I am no expert in canadian politics, so take it with a pinch of salt, but from what I have been told, they are the less immigration friendly out of both.

As far as CRS is concerned, like demand and supply in a free market economy, it 'll stabilise eventually.

So just say it will get difficult ... Not impossible

 

[SeniorStakes]

Firstly, both your assumptions that profiles above 451 on May 1st was 0 is not accurate. The data available before May 10th is for April 26th, which means that as far as data was concerned, you both failed to account for the 14-day period before May 10th. Since your assumption of May 1st data was inaccurate, you calculation was also inaccurate.

If you are looking at statistics, then you need to look a bit further beyond the immediate figures.

Number of Profiles between 451-600 on:

1. Feb 28th: 2327
2. March 14th: 1981
3. March 29th: 1961
4. April 12th: 1903
5. April 26th: 1511
6. May 10th: 1668

I don't believe I need to mention that all profiles on a particular date (of data publishing) would be given ITA under their 3350 quota, hence each 14-day period would start with 0-profiles.

• Number of profiles added between Feb 28 and March 14: 141.5
• Number of profiles added between Mar 14 and March 29: 140.07
• Number of profiles added between Mar 29 and April 12: 135.5
• Number of profiles added between Apr 12 and April 26: 107.9
• Number of profiles added between Apr 26 and Mar 10: 119.1

Average profiles added in each 14-day period: 128.4 per day

Again, for the 600+ category, I don't believe I need to mention that all profiles on a particular date (of data publishing) would be given ITA under their 3350 quota, hence each 14-day period would start with 0-profiles.

Number of Profiles above 600 on:

1. Feb 28th: 253
2. March 14th: 209
3. March 29th: 246
4. April 12th: 273
5. April 26th: 279
6. May 10th: 317

• Number of profiles added between Feb 28 and March 14: 14.9
• Number of profiles added between Mar 14 and March 29: 17
• Number of profiles added between Mar 29 and April 12: 19.5
• Number of profiles added between Apr 12 and April 26: 19.9
• Number of profiles added between Apr 26 and Mar 10: 22.6

Average profiles added in each 14-day period: 18.6 per day

So average number of profiles added over 14-day period in 451-600 and 600+ categories: 146 (approximately)

You cannot look at one draw in isolation and even if you do, you have to look at data from the last date that data was available from.

Absolutely incorrect!!!

Height of poor mathematics

The number you used is not for 14 days but only 8 days. Moreover, the exact time is not known so a better calculation is taking the difference between successive data points, adjust by draw and divide by 14.

451+ speed at this point is 240 per day.

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

How much time do u have to accept expression of interest from Ontario ?

Stop worrying about that and accept it quickly. We all lingering in 440's will kill for an OINP EoI haha
(not really though since then it would reflect on the pcc and make us inadmissible lol).

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

So just say it will get difficult ... Not impossible

Where did I say that it will become impossible? Lol