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Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

P

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
Guys pls let me know what is wrong wid below prediction?
12th June CRS: 463

*Apart from below 3 assumptions rest of calculation is based on facts and figures

Assumptions made:
1. Same no of 450+ inflow will continue in June ie 223 per day
2. Draw comes on 12th June with 3350 ITA
3. Out of all candidates in range of 450-470:
a. 60% are from 450-460 slab
b. 40% are from 461-470 slab

Prediction starts:
After 1st May:
470+ = 0
450+ = almost 0

On 24th May, 450+ = 5353
450+ increase per day= 5353/24 = 223
So on 29th May, 450+ = 223*28= 6244
On 29th May draw 470+ candidates removed= 3350
Remaining (450-470) after 29th May = 6244-3350= 2894

From 1st May to 29th May:
470+ added= 3350/28= 120 per day
450-470 added= 223-120= 103 per day

450+ candidates added by June 12th:
470+ = 120*14 = 1680
(450-470)= 103*14= 1442

Total 450+ on 12th June = 1442+1680+2894= 6016
*2894 are leftover from previous draw
*1680 are 470+

ITA to be issued on 12th June= 3350
If we remove 470+ from 3350, then,
ITA issues to (450-470) scorers = 3350-1680= 1670
*This 1670 number will help reducing the cut-off

Now we need to calculate, how many candidates are sitting on a particular score, which is quite tough, let me give a try:

(450-470) candidates in 12th June draw= 6016-1680= 4336
Now I divide 4336 in two slabs, assuming density is higher in 450-460 range
Slab 1: (450-460) = 60% of 4336= 2601
Slab2 : (461-470) = 40% of 4336= 1735
No. Of candidates on each single score from 461-470= 1735/10= 173.5
Decrease in CRS score = 1670/173.5= 9.62
Hence my prediction = 470-9.62= 461 appox.
Now I put in some negativity factors which I cud not foresee and score can be 461+ 2= 463

In the same way you can calculate 26th June draw
 
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S

sarak1812

Hero Member
May 21, 2019
300
67
Also regarding the elections

If conservatives come in power nothing is going to affect express entry system as they are the ones who introduced the system in 2015.

Another thing Canada has target of 1 million immigrants till 2021.

The only thing that might change is cut offwill increase because conservatives gave 600 points to job offers . But yet again everyone knows that getting lmia is not a piece of cake .

So all and all cut off will increase but nothing will happen to express entry .

This is my assumption .please feel free to comment
 
E

Eddiesol

Star Member
Mar 22, 2019
162
41
That
Punitsingh said:
Guys pls let me know what is wrong wid below prediction?
12th June CRS: 463

*Apart from below 3 assumptions rest of calculation is based on facts and figures

Assumptions made:
1. Same no of 450+ inflow will continue in June ie 223 per day
2. Draw comes on 12th June with 3350 ITA
3. Out of all candidates in range of 450-470:
a. 60% are from 450-460 slab
b. 40% are from 461-470 slab

Prediction starts:
After 1st May:
470+ = 0
450+ = almost 0

On 24th May, 450+ = 5353
450+ increase per day= 5353/24 = 223
So on 29th May, 450+ = 223*28= 6244
On 29th May draw 470+ candidates removed= 3350
Remaining (450-470) after 29th May = 6244-3350= 2894

From 1st May to 29th May:
470+ added= 3350/28= 120 per day
450-470 added= 223-120= 103 per day

450+ candidates added by June 12th:
470+ = 120*14 = 1680
(450-470)= 103*14= 1442

Total 450+ on 12th June = 1442+1680+2894= 6016
*2894 are leftover from previous draw
*1680 are 470+

ITA to be issued on 12th June= 3350
If we remove 470+ from 3350, then,
ITA issues to (450-470) scorers = 3350-1680= 1670
*This 1670 number will help reducing the cut-off

Now we need to calculate, how many candidates are sitting on a particular score, which is quite tough, let me give a try:

(450-470) candidates in 12th June draw= 6016-1680= 4336
Now I divide 4336 in two slabs, assuming density is higher in 450-460 range
Slab 1: (450-460) = 60% of 4336= 2601
Slab2 : (461-470) = 40% of 4336= 1735
No. Of candidates on each single score from 461-470= 1735/10= 173.5
Decrease in CRS score = 1670/173.5= 9.62
Hence my prediction = 470-9.62= 461 appox.
Now I put in some negativity factors which I cud not foresee and score can be 461+ 2= 463

In the same way you can calculate 26th June draw
Click to expand...
Is the most logical prediction so far if the assumption that there 60/40% ratio of candidates between the 50s and 60s
 
E

Eddiesol

Star Member
Mar 22, 2019
162
41
Not_Your_Donkey_Kong said:
How can there be any 'sign' of a b2b draw or increase in ITA's? Not that CIC announces beforehand the when and what of the draw haha.

But I believe that a b2b draw or the increase in ITA's has to occur somewhere around or before the second week of July. If they do it later, that ll be detrimental to the system. CRS ll fall unexpectedly and rapidly. They have to sustain it at a reasonable level.

Also, the liberals are in till September (correct me if i am wrong). These next three months are crucial. After that, the entire thing might turn on its head (fingers crossed).
Click to expand...
Liberals are not your friend now because they want to look tough in regards to selecting immigrants before the incoming elections
 
L

Lazybug

Star Member
May 1, 2019
148
124
sarak1812 said:
Also regarding the elections

If conservatives come in power nothing is going to affect express entry system as they are the ones who introduced the system in 2015.

Another thing Canada has target of 1 million immigrants till 2021.

The only thing that might change is cut offwill increase because conservatives gave 600 points to job offers . But yet again everyone knows that getting lmia is not a piece of cake .

So all and all cut off will increase but nothing will happen to express entry .

This is my assumption .please feel free to comment
Click to expand...
Agreed. I don't think there is going to be much changes to the system at least untill 2021, which they promised. The cut off score might vary if they decide to bring changes in the points based on certain criteria.

Canadians, conservatives or not, don't seem to be against legal immigration as a whole. Illegal immigration is a different worry, and a fair one.

I have also heard from many friends in Canada who said that there is a possibility that things might get difficult so I plan to prepare for the worst and make this happen ASAP.
 
P

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
Eddiesol said:
Yeah it could be 50-50 or even 40-60
Nothing is certain atm
Click to expand...
But I think lower range (50s) will be having higher density
Same ways 40s have higher density than 50s,
Hence I chose 60/40, and this is assumption is highly variable, rest of calculation is based on data and facts
 
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G

gursimran walia

Full Member
May 29, 2019
47
8
Punitsingh said:
Guys pls let me know what is wrong wid below prediction?
12th June CRS: 463

*Apart from below 3 assumptions rest of calculation is based on facts and figures

Assumptions made:
1. Same no of 450+ inflow will continue in June ie 223 per day
2. Draw comes on 12th June with 3350 ITA
3. Out of all candidates in range of 450-470:
a. 60% are from 450-460 slab
b. 40% are from 461-470 slab

Prediction starts:
After 1st May:
470+ = 0
450+ = almost 0

On 24th May, 450+ = 5353
450+ increase per day= 5353/24 = 223
So on 29th May, 450+ = 223*28= 6244
On 29th May draw 470+ candidates removed= 3350
Remaining (450-470) after 29th May = 6244-3350= 2894

From 1st May to 29th May:
470+ added= 3350/28= 120 per day
450-470 added= 223-120= 103 per day

450+ candidates added by June 12th:
470+ = 120*14 = 1680
(450-470)= 103*14= 1442

Total 450+ on 12th June = 1442+1680+2894= 6016
*2894 are leftover from previous draw
*1680 are 470+

ITA to be issued on 12th June= 3350
If we remove 470+ from 3350, then,
ITA issues to (450-470) scorers = 3350-1680= 1670
*This 1670 number will help reducing the cut-off

Now we need to calculate, how many candidates are sitting on a particular score, which is quite tough, let me give a try:

(450-470) candidates in 12th June draw= 6016-1680= 4336
Now I divide 4336 in two slabs, assuming density is higher in 450-460 range
Slab 1: (450-460) = 60% of 4336= 2601
Slab2 : (461-470) = 40% of 4336= 1735
No. Of candidates on each single score from 461-470= 1735/10= 173.5
Decrease in CRS score = 1670/173.5= 9.62
Hence my prediction = 470-9.62= 461 appox.
Now I put in some negativity factors which I cud not foresee and score can be 461+ 2= 463

In the same way you can calculate 26th June draw
Click to expand...
i totally agree
 
P

PS_001

Member
Mar 6, 2019
12
1
dacoffee said:
Actually, for someone like me (416), I was kind of demotivated by seeing people having such high scores. I felt good for them but my hopes started to go down. That's when my wife said to not lose hope and work even harder. We have a 10-month old daughter; my wife happily takes up most of the work so that I get some time (after coming back from the office) to study French and diploma together.

I hope one day I can cross 450+ mark and post here about my progress. It is a very long road ahead but hope is the only thing I have.
Click to expand...
I am also considering applying for masters or a diploma. What diploma have you applied for, from where and what's the duration? Thanks!
 
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