Hi Everyone, my first post here after we created our EE profile in May.
Lots of posts were about trying to anticipate what the draw will be and a lot of people wondering why it was so high and whether it will come down or not.
So I looked into the whole draw format and the total number of profiles (as released on their
Rounds of Invitation page) and here is what I feel is happening:
- Since 2018, there has been a move towards standardizing the number of profiles they are picking in each draw. It was 3750 and 3900 for most part of last year, and this year it is 3350. Across 24-draws (every 14-days), approximately 80,500 profiles will be picked based on 3350 draws each fortnight.
- There were two FST draws last year - in May and in September - and they obviously skew the total number of profiles picked. Will they compensate by picking more profiles in the subsequent draws - depends entirely on how many successful PRs their existing cases convert to
- Here's the Ray of Hope: As per the total number of profiles in the 451+ category, approximately 140 - 150 profiles are being added each day to the pool. That means, approximately 1900 to 2100 new profiles are entering the pool before each draw. However, 3350 are being removed from the top in each draw - so from the top, approximately 1250 more profiles are being removed from the existing pool
- In the data released on the 24th, 5350+ profiles were in the 451+ category, of which 3350 received an ITA - now, 2000 profiles of 451+ are remaining
- By June 6th (assuming profile creation rate remains at 140 to 150), another 2100 profiles will be added, taking the total 451+ profiles to 4100
- Out of those, 3350 will probably be picked again, leaving only 750 profiles above 451+ in the pool.
- By June 20th, another 2100 will be added to the pool (451+ total will be approximately 2900) and 3350 will be removed, which means that draw may drop to or below 450.
So I believe, here's the thing that everyone needs to focus on:
more profiles are being sent ITAs than are being added to the pool every 14-days.
How many more ITAs are being issued? So far, the trend is 3350. Will they reduce it in the future? Depends on whether they are looking for only 451+ profiles but I don't believe they are. Why I don't believe so is because these 401-450, 451-600 and 601+ categories are only being created for statistical purposes and they don't have a real impact on the draw - which is only picking the top 3350 people irrespective of their CRS scores.
Here are some of the assumptions I have made:
- The number of 451+ profiles being added each day are 140 to 150. This can be more or less depending on many factors, including US political climate, college graduations, etc.
- The number of ITAs issued in each draw is 3350. This can change very easily (more or less)
The one thing everyone has to look forward to is that at every draw, approximately 1200 more profiles are being removed from the pool than those being added to it. Which means that as long as the trend of "more profiles being removed than added" remains true, the draw will keep dropping its CRS score.
I would recommend keeping an eye on the total
profiles in the pool more than anything else. The moment the 451+ profiles comes below 2000 (following a draw), the cut-off will become more favourable for those below 451. That said, how low it will go is completely ambiguous as there are over 36,000 profiles in the 400 to 450 scores, so your guess is as good as mine.
so no chance for 456;
