Will Trump's point based immigration pass?

[deadbird]

I'm trying to collect arguments as to why this bill may or may not pass. I could come up with the following:

Arguments why the bill may pass:

• The Republicans haven't had a policy victory since the election. They need one.
• Immigration is a hot button topic and Trump loves publicity.
• The bill isn't targeting DREAMers; only legal green card applicants.
• It's hard to argue against a merit based system.
• This plays well with Trump voters since they think that this might limit Mexicans and non-white people as it has a requirement for strong English skills.

Arguments why the bill may not pass:

• The RAISE bill was introduced by Tom Cotton previously in Feb. It simply languished and nothing happened.
• Some Republicans like Lindsey Graham oppose the bill since a lot of the subjects in his state are Hispanics.
• The Democrats have the power to filibuster.
• The Democrats will definitely oppose any change to end family based immigration and the diversity lottery.
• The Democrats will not be willing to consider any immigration bill that doesn't address the status of the 11M+ illegal immigrants already in the country.

 

[DEEPCUR]

May not pass: trump isn't supported by his own party men in both congress and Senate.

May pass: congress is quite aware that the current green card system has been outdated, so they might be genuinely interested in fixing for the sake of the nation. Every govt would have something or other, somehow bills get passed.l

 

[kprs_ind]

It has been in the news recently on the point-based system.

We can keep this thread to post updates on this.

 

[DEEPCUR]

It has been in the news recently on the point-based system.

We can keep this thread to post updates on this.

Dude, I'm not sure what your expectations are, no matter what news articles say, there is nothing much to discuss on this topic as nothing related to US immigration will change for next 6 years.

This administration cannot even execute a single executive order related to immigration successfully, why even think about changing laws.

 

[harirajmohan]

Also there are too many threads for discussed for years and decades in trackitt and not sure why we need to discuss here as most problems are just for Indian born and we know that its useless to wait there and we are here and i dont see discussing on it on potential bills will help when they have not reformed for decades.

Of course we can discuss once the bills pass.

 

[deadbird]

I am not intimately knowledgeable about this topic at the current time. However it seems somewhat obvious that as long as the current congress is majority Democrat they won't allow any major immigration bill to pass before 2020 elections. However, if republicans have a majority in congress, senate and Trump wins again; then it's not unlikely for such a bill to be passed.

 

[DEEPCUR]

I am not intimately knowledgeable about this topic at the current time. However it seems somewhat obvious that as long as the current congress is majority Democrat they won't allow any major immigration bill to pass before 2020 elections. However, if republicans have a majority in congress, senate and Trump wins again; then it's not unlikely for such a bill to be passed.

When you opened this thread (and when this topic was hot last time), Republicans controlled both House and Senate.. some of immigration reform bills that were endorsed by Trump couldn't even pass the House, leave alone Senate. Why will it pass if Republicans get majority next time?

 

[deadbird]

When you opened this thread (and when this topic was hot last time), Republicans controlled both House and Senate.. some of immigration reform bills that were endorsed by Trump couldn't even pass the House, leave alone Senate. Why will it pass if Republicans get majority next time?

Cuz there's limited political capital and they spent it passing tax cuts. For Republicans, money is more important than immigration. If they get another 4 years there'll be a much longer runway, will little to lose, besides they've already laid the groundwork for the legislation. I wouldn't be too surprised if that's the first agenda on the table if Trump wins re-election.

 

[Samoinp]

Cuz there's limited political capital and they spent it passing tax cuts. For Republicans, money is more important than immigration. If they get another 4 years there'll be a much longer runway, will little to lose, besides they've already laid the groundwork for the legislation. I wouldn't be too surprised if that's the first agenda on the table if Trump wins re-election.

I'm trying to collect arguments as to why this bill may or may not pass. I could come up with the following:

Arguments why the bill may pass:

• The Republicans haven't had a policy victory since the election. They need one.
• Immigration is a hot button topic and Trump loves publicity.
• The bill isn't targeting DREAMers; only legal green card applicants.
• It's hard to argue against a merit based system.
• This plays well with Trump voters since they think that this might limit Mexicans and non-white people as it has a requirement for strong English skills.

Arguments why the bill may not pass:

• The RAISE bill was introduced by Tom Cotton previously in Feb. It simply languished and nothing happened.
• Some Republicans like Lindsey Graham oppose the bill since a lot of the subjects in his state are Hispanics.
• The Democrats have the power to filibuster.
• The Democrats will definitely oppose any change to end family based immigration and the diversity lottery.
• The Democrats will not be willing to consider any immigration bill that doesn't address the status of the 11M+ illegal immigrants already in the country.

Nothing but a mere reminder of dangling carrot aka pls continue to pay taxes, help corporations and be hopeful forever.

 

[astraldust]

Trump is full of air and can't get anything done. This will not pass because Dems want DACA addressed and Repubs hate DACA recipients.

 

[Samoinp]

Trump is full of air and can't get anything done. This will not pass because Dems want DACA addressed and Repubs hate DACA recipients.

Not "can't", it is really "won't". Democrats and Republicans contradictory position is just a facade. Kind of Good cop, bad cop approach.

 

[DEEPCUR]

Yes, but this will keep appearing in news every now and while even though every single politician know that neither merit bill nor something like country cap removal would ever pass in current political climate.

They do this to keep their constituents satisfied who just go by headlines and don't get the devil in the details.. when Trump tweets something like illegal immigration is ending and Merit based immigration is on its way, you'll see responses like Trump is God send, make America great again etc as a response to the tweet. Such news propagation in media is exactly intended for them. It'll keep appearing once in a while.. that's how politics are run and politicians work around the world.

As additional bonus effect, Indians waiting in backlog too keep turning hopeful for nothing and feel Trump will definitely do something for them.

 

[justinline]

These bills or reforms play very dangerous games with your mind.....they never materialize and same time string you along for years and years in false hope.....and by the time you realize.....you have spent a decade and nothing to show for it.
I can now almost see the beginnings of effect on the next generation. Kids aging out used to be very rare earlier, now it's becoming very common scenario.....especially for the the oldest kid in the family. I know at least two cases personally where kids are aging out.....to my amazement, they plan to still stay in US and move to F1 to pursue studies. The mistake they are making ...thinking they are some how aligned with DACA kids...that's the feeling I got talking to one. And I could almost feel it .....there is lingering hope for some kind of reform. To some extent there is kind of faith.....US will find a way for them, all they have to do is .....do the right thing and stick around. I don't blame these kids, it's the job of the parents to make right decisions early on and when they discuss things on immigration and expectation of reforms, they set the expectations at right level......so be wary of all this reform business.....I almost see it is now moving to engulf the next generation with disaster written all over it.

 

[Samoinp]

@deadbird How about this? You like that? While HR1044 is gaining more and more cosponsors.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/04/politics/house-passes-dream-and-promise-act/index.html

Take a medium to long term plan and go ahead.

 

[Xtreme Innovations]

Weth

I'm trying to collect arguments as to why this bill may or may not pass. I could come up with the following:

Arguments why the bill may pass:

• The Republicans haven't had a policy victory since the election. They need one.
• Immigration is a hot button topic and Trump loves publicity.
• The bill isn't targeting DREAMers; only legal green card applicants.
• It's hard to argue against a merit based system.
• This plays well with Trump voters since they think that this might limit Mexicans and non-white people as it has a requirement for strong English skills.

Arguments why the bill may not pass:

• The RAISE bill was introduced by Tom Cotton previously in Feb. It simply languished and nothing happened.
• Some Republicans like Lindsey Graham oppose the bill since a lot of the subjects in his state are Hispanics.
• The Democrats have the power to filibuster.
• The Democrats will definitely oppose any change to end family based immigration and the diversity lottery.
• The Democrats will not be willing to consider any immigration bill that doesn't address the status of the 11M+ illegal immigrants already in the country.

Wondering what has points based system and Trump loving public got to do with points based system? Canada has the same points based system and it gives immigrants all over the world the opportunity to migrate, not just those that are geographically close. what's so different with what Trump is proposing? Canada also demands English and people are writing IELTS over and over many times just to make it and no one interprets it as an action intended to limit a certain group of speakers. I am not sure why this is becoming a race issue when Canada has exact system and people from different races are following the Canadian stipulations to come here. Hispanics can learn English just as others who are having to learn English to permit them move to another country. No country even Canada lets you come in to integrate without some level of English because it is the language of use.
Whether the bill passes or not it is up to their system, the democrats might not be happy it doesn't cover DACA but what about immigrants form other countries who want to come to the USA but have no family are not geographically close or can't win the lottery? There are people I know who play lottery for 10 years and never win. That's is why many prefer the Canadian system which is based on skills and you can determine if you qualify and look at improving your self. Personally I think both parties can benefit from this policy and not just reject because Trump is the one who suggested it