Another thing to consider is that CIC sent out ~20% more invites than the annual target in both 2017 and 2018, so it’s possible that a lot more than 86k invites will be sent out this year.Okay, I did some maths in order to predict whether the number of ITAs would rise in the future or not.
I did the calculations on the basis of following information -
1. ITAs issued till now - 31750 (as of may 15)
2. Intake target for 2019 - 81400 (expected), 76000 (low), 86000 (high)
Based on that, we get three different scenarios-
Case 1 - Annual target - 81400.
Around 39% of the planned Invitations already issued.
That leaves with 61% to be covered in 7 months (i.e from June).
If that becomes the case, the ITAs must be increased from the next draw itself to at least 3500, if CIC wants to cover the annual target in time. (If it however still choses not to increase the number of ITAs, it ll have to increase it even further, probably to 3900, depending on how much it waits before opening the gates)
Case 2 - Annual target 76000.
About 41% target achieved.
About 45000 invitations still to be issued.
Spacing those out over two week draws, the number of invitations remain between 3200-3300 (which is the current scenario also.)
I don't think CIC will stick with this, but if it does, this ll spell disaster for the in line applicants.
Case 3 - Annual target 86000.
The best of all.
About 36% achieved. That makes 55000+ available.
Given 2 draws each month,
Invitations should be increased to at least 3900 to cover the annual target.
Assumptions -
1. Draws take place regularly at an interval of two weeks.
2. ITAs are increased from the next draw.
3. There is no wastage, i.e all ITAs issued are converted into PR's.
Now, I must say that these assumptions are not practical. They are just for calculation purpose.
There will surely be back to back draws. CIC may not increase ITA's from the next draw itself. And for sure, there is a lot of wastage, many ITA's fail to convert into PR's.
And all these, I must add, will only reduce the CRS cut off or push CIC to increase ITA's further (even if we adopt the pessimistic approach).
PS - Not an expert at this. Was just curious about this so did it. Might be wrong in my judgment or calculations.
Ray of Hope - 118th Draw
- Thread starter NikSharma01
- Start date
What if the Trudeau government falls in the coming elections and we get some non immigrant friendly people at the helm?
I don't want to believe this, but could it be that CIC's slow pace has something to do with the Canadian politics and the upcoming elections?
alibutt2013
Hero Member
- Sep 3, 2013
- 58
- Visa Office......
- Islamabad
- Job Offer........
- Pre-Assessed..
- App. Filed.......
- 17th may 2013
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Can you shed some more light on the extra 90 days after work permit? Wouldn't he be out of status and you have to have a status in order to apply for Express Entry?
Please look at all previous score/distribution ~ then you realized even 451+ was 2000 only the week before, but the end score is at least 452-454 with 3350 draw....
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I think the next draw from CIC will determine their approach/strategy for the remaining draw (2nd half of 2019)...We will see
If they keep the same ITA 3350, which mean they really want to keep the point high and try to "manipulate" the score or backlog ~ TBH, even they don't meet their set target, what else we can do with the current Liberal government? the citizen can vote them out but yea ~ we have little or zero power to "complain"
If they increase ITA to 3500+, we can see some positive sign, possibly b2b draw or increase ITA in the second half.
If they keep the same ITA 3350, which mean they really want to keep the point high and try to "manipulate" the score or backlog ~ TBH, even they don't meet their set target, what else we can do with the current Liberal government? the citizen can vote them out but yea ~ we have little or zero power to "complain"
If they increase ITA to 3500+, we can see some positive sign, possibly b2b draw or increase ITA in the second half.
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Good analysis, if they maintain 3350 ITA's they will met low target for 2019Okay, I did some maths in order to predict whether the number of ITAs would rise in the future or not.
I did the calculations on the basis of following information -
1. ITAs issued till now - 31750 (as of may 15)
2. Intake target for 2019 - 81400 (expected), 76000 (low), 86000 (high)
Based on that, we get three different scenarios-
Case 1 - Annual target - 81400.
Around 39% of the planned Invitations already issued.
That leaves with 61% to be covered in 7 months (i.e from June).
If that becomes the case, the ITAs must be increased from the next draw itself to at least 3500, if CIC wants to cover the annual target in time. (If it however still choses not to increase the number of ITAs, it ll have to increase it even further, probably to 3900, depending on how much it waits before opening the gates)
Case 2 - Annual target 76000.
About 41% target achieved.
About 45000 invitations still to be issued.
Spacing those out over two week draws, the number of invitations remain between 3200-3300 (which is the current scenario also.)
I don't think CIC will stick with this, but if it does, this ll spell disaster for the in line applicants.
Case 3 - Annual target 86000.
The best of all.
About 36% achieved. That makes 55000+ available.
Given 2 draws each month,
Invitations should be increased to at least 3900 to cover the annual target.
Assumptions -
1. Draws take place regularly at an interval of two weeks.
2. ITAs are increased from the next draw.
3. There is no wastage, i.e all ITAs issued are converted into PR's.
Now, I must say that these assumptions are not practical. They are just for calculation purpose.
There will surely be back to back draws. CIC may not increase ITA's from the next draw itself. And for sure, there is a lot of wastage, many ITA's fail to convert into PR's.
And all these, I must add, will only reduce the CRS cut off or push CIC to increase ITA's further (even if we adopt the pessimistic approach).
PS - Not an expert at this. Was just curious about this so did it. Might be wrong in my judgment or calculations.
I hope they don't follow case 2 . I really don't want them to mess up .. Please CIC be lenient to the aspirers. Please .....Okay, I did some maths in order to predict whether the number of ITAs would rise in the future or not.
I did the calculations on the basis of following information -
1. ITAs issued till now - 31750 (as of may 15)
2. Intake target for 2019 - 81400 (expected), 76000 (low), 86000 (high)
Based on that, we get three different scenarios-
Case 1 - Annual target - 81400.
Around 39% of the planned Invitations already issued.
That leaves with 61% to be covered in 7 months (i.e from June).
If that becomes the case, the ITAs must be increased from the next draw itself to at least 3500, if CIC wants to cover the annual target in time. (If it however still choses not to increase the number of ITAs, it ll have to increase it even further, probably to 3900, depending on how much it waits before opening the gates)
Case 2 - Annual target 76000.
About 41% target achieved.
About 45000 invitations still to be issued.
Spacing those out over two week draws, the number of invitations remain between 3200-3300 (which is the current scenario also.)
I don't think CIC will stick with this, but if it does, this ll spell disaster for the in line applicants.
Case 3 - Annual target 86000.
The best of all.
About 36% achieved. That makes 55000+ available.
Given 2 draws each month,
Invitations should be increased to at least 3900 to cover the annual target.
Assumptions -
1. Draws take place regularly at an interval of two weeks.
2. ITAs are increased from the next draw.
3. There is no wastage, i.e all ITAs issued are converted into PR's.
Now, I must say that these assumptions are not practical. They are just for calculation purpose.
There will surely be back to back draws. CIC may not increase ITA's from the next draw itself. And for sure, there is a lot of wastage, many ITA's fail to convert into PR's.
And all these, I must add, will only reduce the CRS cut off or push CIC to increase ITA's further (even if we adopt the pessimistic approach).
PS - Not an expert at this. Was just curious about this so did it. Might be wrong in my judgment or calculations.
But here's the silver lining. With 3350 ITA's they cannot meet even the low target for 2019. I mean, in a perfect watertight system, without any leakages, they may, however, since not all ITA's get converted into PR's, they must increase the quota, which i believe will happen somewhere around quarter 4 (if they just aim at the low target).
Also, it's not very likely that they ll aim at the low target. Canada has a progressive immigrant intake goal till 2021. They ll at least try to achieve the set target, otherwise it might be detrimental to their entire plan.
A friendly reminder to all - Don't lose hope. Especially those above 440. Give or take a couple of months, and their is a good chance that the cut off will reduce to its normal (440-445) range.
I didn't received any! Was it for job-offer specific streams?
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From what I've gathered the AINP is heavily NOC-focused. This is a list of in-demand NOCs in Alberta, but there's no way to tell if it's representative of the AINP criteria: https://alis.alberta.ca/occinfo/occupations-in-alberta/occupations-in-demand/
Thanks, this is the kind of post I expect this thread to be about!But here's the silver lining. With 3350 ITA's they cannot meet even the low target for 2019. I mean, in a perfect watertight system, without any leakages, they may, however, since not all ITA's get converted into PR's, they must increase the quota, which i believe will happen somewhere around quarter 4 (if they just aim at the low target).
Also, it's not very likely that they ll aim at the low target. Canada has a progressive immigrant intake goal till 2021. They ll at least try to achieve the set target, otherwise it might be detrimental to their entire plan.
A friendly reminder to all - Don't lose hope. Especially those above 440. Give or take a couple of months, and their is a good chance that the cut off will reduce to its normal (440-445) range.