Ray of Hope - 118th Draw

[veritas1994]

Please can someone give me some hope. I am a CEC applicant with a score of 465 and my work permit is expiring on june 14th, do you think there is going to be a draw before that?

I am freaking out

Man, I know anyone can panic. And this is a huge deal. But come on man, you are sitting at 465 There has not been a draw for the last 3 weeks. There is another 3 weeks until Jun 14th. Do you think there can be a gap of 6 weeks in between draws???

 

[Danny92]

Totally uneducated guess based on no facts whatsoever (just to give you guys some hope): but maybe they are waiting until closer to June because they hired additional case officers, potentially increasing the number of ITAs issued as to meet the increased quota for this year.
Please don't lose hope! It took me 8 months to get my ITA through a provincial nomination. Which reminds me as I've seen this allegation in here as well: IRCC definitely does not want to take away or limit the amount of provincial nominations. Just take Alberta as an example, IRCC actually increased the amount of nominations they can issue for 2019.

 

[Ontario@Canada]

Here is my guess...let me know if you guys agree...

As of May 10th, per the score distribution in CRS website , ~2000 people have their score 451+ .
By May29th the count of 451 + can be somewhere around 3000 at the most.. (addition of 1000 candidates with 451+ score in a span of 20 days)
so for the remaining 350 or 500 or 900 should be for those with score of 450,449

So, the cut off for next week should most likely be 449 or 450
448 is also a possibility...

Lets hope for the best!

 

[hakweye]

Here is my guess...let me know if you guys agree...

As of May 10th, per the score distribution in CRS website , ~2000 people have their score 451+ .
By May29th the count of 451 + can be somewhere around 3000 at the most.. (addition of 1000 candidates with 451+ score in a span of 20 days)
so for the remaining 350 or 500 or 900 should be for those with score of 450,449

So, the cut off for next week should most likely be 449 or 450
448 is also a possibility...

Lets hope for the best!

Since May 1st draw was for 450 ,in 10 days (from May 1st to 10th) number of applications above 451 went from 0 to 2000, and in another 20 days it will be around 6000,which means CRS will be above 460

 

[veritas1994]

Since May 1st draw was for 450 ,in 10 days (from May 1st to 10th) number of applications above 451 went from 0 to 2000, and in another 20 days it will be around 6000,which means CRS will be above 460

You are right. There will be 6000-ish people above 450. Where the cutoff is depends on the distribution of those 6000 people.

Around 460-ish or even greater than 460 is not impossible. But its also possible for it to be closer to 455-454 depending on the distribution.

If we assume that its not uniformly distributed and the number of candidates decrease as the scores increase, then a 3500 draw could have a cut-off of 454. Because its entirely possible ( looks this way to me) for there to be 2500-ish people in between 450-454.

It just depends on how the number of candidates per score trail off as the scores increase.

 

[Nsidhu]

You are right. There will be 6000-ish people above 450. Where the cutoff is depends on the distribution of those 6000 people.

Around 460-ish or even greater than 460 is not impossible. But its also possible for it to be closer to 455-454 depending on the distribution.

If we assume that its not uniformly distributed and the number of candidates decrease as the scores increase, then a 3500 draw could have a cut-off of 454. Because its entirely possible ( looks this way to me) for there to be 2500-ish people in between 450-454.

It just depends on how the number of candidates per score trail off as the scores increase.

exactly. you are right. i don't know why poeple neglect the thing even if 6000 are adding up not all of them have score more than 450

 

[keyur sharma]

it happened before ~ but different situation

That situation was different. At that time they changed rules. From June 1 2017 they changed points for LMIA and also they started hovering 15 points for siblings

 

[keyur sharma]

Hey guys, Im a new member with Score of 451. I got a really nice job offer recently but my work permit will expire on June 23rd.

I know there will be a big spike on next draw and I wont be selected for sure with 451 (May 29th). Which means I only have one chance left on June 12th before my work permit expiry.

Im really freak out, lets pray together some good thing will happen.

Hey you will get it for sure but not sure about when you will get. You will get 90 extra days after your work permit expires so don’t worry during that time for sure you will get ITA

 

[hakweye]

You are right. There will be 6000-ish people above 450. Where the cutoff is depends on the distribution of those 6000 people.

Around 460-ish or even greater than 460 is not impossible. But its also possible for it to be closer to 455-454 depending on the distribution.

If we assume that its not uniformly distributed and the number of candidates decrease as the scores increase, then a 3500 draw could have a cut-off of 454. Because its entirely possible ( looks this way to me) for there to be 2500-ish people in between 450-454.

It just depends on how the number of candidates per score trail off as the scores increase.

I agree with you, the cut off can be anything above 455+. Next could have around 600+ above 600 applications (PNP). So the number of ITAs issued will determine where the cut off falls.

 

[indpnv]

Here is my guess...let me know if you guys agree...

As of May 10th, per the score distribution in CRS website , ~2000 people have their score 451+ .
By May29th the count of 451 + can be somewhere around 3000 at the most.. (addition of 1000 candidates with 451+ score in a span of 20 days)
so for the remaining 350 or 500 or 900 should be for those with score of 450,449

So, the cut off for next week should most likely be 449 or 450
448 is also a possibility...

Lets hope for the best!

How did you get to that 1000 with 451+ in 20 days. Shouldn't it be more than that.

If you look at the May 1st draw, the score was at 450, basically no profiles with 451+ right after the draw. Based on the pool distribution as of May 10, we have 1985 profiles with 451+ score from May 1 to May 10 (9 days).

That's like 220 profiles/day with 451+ score added to the pool.

Now if we have another draw on 29th, that's a gap of 19 days. That 1000 profiles between May 10 to May 29 (19 days) is extremely optimistic.

Edit: The scores of 450+ could be skewed towards low the 450s, which would bring it towards 450 - 455. Else, you would see a cut off between 455 - 460.

 

[sarak1812]

How did you get to that 1000 with 451+ in 20 days. Shouldn't it be more than that.

If you look at the May 1st draw, the score was at 450, basically no profiles with 451+ right after the draw. Based on the pool distribution as of May 10, we have 1985 profiles with 451+ score from May 1 to May 10 (9 days).

That's like 220 profiles/day with 451+ score added to the pool.

Now if we have another draw on 29th, that's a gap of 19 days. That 1000 profiles between May 10 to May 29 (19 days) is extremely optimistic.

Edit: The scores of 450+ could be skewed towards low the 450s, which would bring it towards 450 - 455. Else, you would see a cut off between 455 - 460.

So in 19+9= 28 days therebe around 5000+ profiles with 451+ and if draw is 3500 then cut off score could be around 456+ ? If 3350 ITA then 460+ ?

 

[indpnv]

So in 19 days there will be around 4000+ profiles with 451+ and if draw is 3500 then cut off score could be around 455+ ? If 3350 ITA then 460+ ?

The thing is the distribution between 450 - 600 is unknown, can't say for sure how many profiles are present towards low 450 or high 450 or 460+.
Hard to put a number without knowing this.

If we have the bulk of the profiles are near 450, we can get something between 450-455 else it would be 455+ based on how the scores are distributed in the 450-600 range.

 

[sarak1812]

The thing is the distribution between 450 - 600 is unknown, can't say for sure how many profiles are present towards low 450 or high 450 or 460+.
Hard to put a number without knowing this.

If we have the bulk of the profiles near 450, we can get something between 450-455 else it would be 455+ based on how the scores are distributed in the 450-600 range.

Ok got it

 

[indpnv]

So in 19+9= 28 days therebe around 5000+ profiles with 451+ and if draw is 3500 then cut off score could be around 456+ ? If 3350 ITA then 460+ ?

Also, 5000+ would be an assumption based on what we saw from May 1 to May 10 which may not necessarily be true. As the rate of profiles with 451+ entering could slow down from May 10 to May 29.

 

[sarak1812]

Y

Also, 5000+ would be an assumption based on what we saw from May 1 to May 10 which may not necessarily be true. As the rate of profiles with 451+ entering could slow down from May 10 to May 29.

Yes that is an assumption of 220 profiles per day ... There could be less than 220 or more than 220 also per day