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Ray of Hope - 106th draw

derkdsou

Champion Member
Oct 3, 2018
1,069
2,267
I thought EE was to attract the best and brightest, but looking at the responses in this thread they need to reevaluate their eligibility criteria.
They are also trying to bring in young people because Canada's population is aging rapidly and they need a new tax base to pay for rising pensions and healthcare costs. Age is valued disproportionately by Canada, Australia, and New Zealand - the three big countries inviting skilled immigrants right now.
 
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derkdsou

Champion Member
Oct 3, 2018
1,069
2,267
For anyone who has a birthday between their ITA and eAPR, this is not going to affect your application. My birthday is in a few days, so I will be dropping down 5 points but this will not affect my application. I know there has been much debate and confusion on this, so I will quote what my ITA says:

"NOTE: If you had a birthday since we sent you this invitation, and the change to your age decreases your points total, this will not cause us to refuse your application for permanent residence."
 
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_RB

Newbie
Nov 5, 2018
3
2
I am sitting in the pool at 444 points right now so I have my fingers (and toes) crossed for the next draw.

December will be a very interesting month for the EE draws if they will be running two. My prediction is that we will have 2 draws and will end up with a short gap somewhere which will mean a significant decrease in the CRS cutoff for one of the draws.

Government offices are closed Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th of December so there will be no draw that Wednesday. They could run a draw on Monday the 24th but with no staff in for the following two days that would be unlikely.

I think we could potentially have a draw next Wednesday (December 5th) and then another draw on Monday the 17th of December or Wednesday the 19th. If this doesn't happen we will have another 3 week gap which would be bad in that the points will rise to approx 450 again.

So... for everybody who is sitting at 440-444, I think that we will have a very nice Christmas present :)
 

safarizone

Star Member
Jun 7, 2018
68
31
I thought EE was to attract the best and brightest, but looking at the responses in this thread they need to reevaluate their eligibility criteria.
I usually assume the stupidity is caused by language barriers, but I really can't be sure. Every single ROH thread "I didn't get ITA yet" and other questions that really shouldn't be asked.
 
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jinssbox

Star Member
Jun 20, 2018
109
72
Calgary
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6221
App. Filed.......
01-01-2019
AOR Received.
01-01-2019
Med's Done....
12-02-2019
Passport Req..
09-08-2019
If the draw happens on 12th Dec, it will be a draw with no new IELTS results(not considering computer delivered IELTS)...I think the last IELTS general exam was on NOV 10 of which the results are already out..And the next exam is on Dec 15..Hope I am right on this data..??
 
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HopingForPR

Hero Member
Oct 16, 2018
264
133
I am sitting in the pool at 444 points right now so I have my fingers (and toes) crossed for the next draw.

December will be a very interesting month for the EE draws if they will be running two. My prediction is that we will have 2 draws and will end up with a short gap somewhere which will mean a significant decrease in the CRS cutoff for one of the draws.

Government offices are closed Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th of December so there will be no draw that Wednesday. They could run a draw on Monday the 24th but with no staff in for the following two days that would be unlikely.

I think we could potentially have a draw next Wednesday (December 5th) and then another draw on Monday the 17th of December or Wednesday the 19th. If this doesn't happen we will have another 3 week gap which would be bad in that the points will rise to approx 450 again.

So... for everybody who is sitting at 440-444, I think that we will have a very nice Christmas present :)

I wish your prediction comes true..
 

Captmario

Full Member
Nov 2, 2018
44
11
You are quoting the distribution of the pool, which has no impact on ITAs - it is just for information and transparency.
Instead, you need to look at the tie-breaking rule applied for candidates that have the same score as the cutoff (445):
Tie-breaking rule: October 22, 2018 at 14:40:13 UTC

(The other guy said his score is above the cutoff, meaning his score is higher than 445 - he did not say how much it is.)
My score is 468. So i am kind of curious whether i will receive ITA or not because i literally registered few hours before the draw time of 12:14:58 UTC
 

Zigzag85

Hero Member
Oct 20, 2017
725
137
Same here, at 441.do we have any chance in the next draw, as many here are predicting it to be +/- 444 ?

If it is a 12 day draw, can’t we expect the score to drop by 4 points at least ?
Considering 260 candidates enter the pool everyday with score more than 440..

For example,

260 * 12 = 3120

3120 + 800 (approx, pending in the pool) = 3920
Maybe, but that would mean praying for a 12 day gap.
Let’s hope for the best.
 

aspirant89

Star Member
Oct 20, 2015
67
43
Actually there is a science to it. If there are 10 people in the pool with scores of: 410, 430, 435, 444, 438, 464, 450, 455, 445, 440. CIC takes the average of those scores and would invite anyone at or above the average score which in this case would be 441. The number of people invited for each draw is a percentage of the pool size. The recent trends point to 4.11% or less of the total pool size. In this example the top 5 people at or above 441 would have been given an invite barring other factors like the tie breaker rule etc.
I understand the logic they use for sending the invites. What I meant was us picking random numbers from the sky and saying that the next draw will be on that. We only get the number of applicants in the pool after the draw, we do not have live data to call the correct number.
 
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zabrodov

Hero Member
Sep 19, 2018
655
362
Gatineau
Category........
FSW
Visa Office......
Montreal
NOC Code......
4163
App. Filed.......
11-11-2018
AOR Received.
11-11-2018
File Transfer...
24-01-2019
Passport Req..
02-08-2019
LANDED..........
02-09-2019
My score is 468. So i am kind of curious whether i will receive ITA or not because i literally registered few hours before the draw time of 12:14:58 UTC
The tie-breaking rule is only for those who have the exact score of 445. Yours is above, therefore you will get an ITA
 

navinball

VIP Member
Feb 26, 2018
3,664
1,644
Actually there is a science to it. If there are 10 people in the pool with scores of: 410, 430, 435, 444, 438, 464, 450, 455, 445, 440. CIC takes the average of those scores and would invite anyone at or above the average score which in this case would be 441. The number of people invited for each draw is a percentage of the pool size. The recent trends point to 4.11% or less of the total pool size. In this example the top 5 people at or above 441 would have been given an invite barring other factors like the tie breaker rule etc.
what happened to your timeline signature. AOR to PR card in 15 days or something like that?
 

samikdg

Hero Member
Apr 27, 2018
550
397
It is not so happy news for those waiting in the pool as the next draw (if after 2 weeks gap) looks gloomy. Hope and pray for a lesser gap draw, otherwise the below would happen:

Draw 106 - Dec 12 - 3900 ITAs - CRS 444
The numbers have escalated too fast in last 3 months. You were correct mate, this was a heartbreaking Wednesday for me sitting at 444 and losing 5 points on 1st December. Such is the difference between having a draw on Monday vs Wednesday :rolleyes:
Want your opinion, what is the probability of a back-to-back draw in December (either on 5th and 19th, or 12th and 19th) given Christmas break, and if that happens, is there a chance of cut-off coming down to 439 with 3900 ITA?
 

Tech_girl123

Hero Member
Jan 20, 2018
589
161
App. Filed.......
30-DEC-2017
if 26th dec is a holiday in canada then most definitely the CRS will rise after 12th dec's draw ! so very little chances for 441 ?