Yup, 430 is possible in next 6 months of this year. If we don't see another huge wave of 441+ guys.
Ray of Hope - 92nd Draw
- Thread starter AlliBatista
- Start date
How did we know that wave of high number of people decreasing? Still 200+ right? Just curious!
When did the huge wave decrease? Are you talking about april 25th to may 9th entrants wave?
Sir Issac Newton said " What Goes Up, Must Come Down"
Lets hope this law stands true here also.
Lets hope this law stands true here also.
valid question! its purely based on psychology and guess work, not facts
when 413 came - ppl said HALLALEJUAH!!! every guy with a low score (including me) wanted to apply and from May last year till today - this brought the score high (also with other factors) - so this huge surge of ppl will reduce for a short while till the system becomes stable.
its like a sinusoidal wave - a peak of influx came - but now the ppl applying will start to decrease after this bad signal going to the market that 413 is not happening again.
yes it has an effect maybe only to ppl who are less than 420 maybe...who will stop applying now and spend all this money on ECAs/IELTS etc...but the knock on effect will reduce. e.g. the ppl who enter at 420 and since they have done so much efforts, they start to improve scores and invest further - so that effect will reduce now. its anyway a complex system and difficult to predict but at a very high level, its for sure that the surge of applications after seeing a score of 413 is going to reduce some day soon
When did that 230+ happen? Except for april 24th to May 9th..the range was between 170 to 196 as far as i remember based on @alexross calculations which he used to provide..
I wrote this earlier... I am quoting it again..
Draw# 84 on Feb 21 cut off was 442 we thought next draw will be either +/- round about the same mark.
Fast forward...
Draw# 85 on Mar 14 cut off ended up at 456.
And that’s why I was quoting above that the theories about the next cut off points in the next round is on such a vague imagination that these are pretty much impossible to predict.
Draw# 84 on Feb 21 cut off was 442 we thought next draw will be either +/- round about the same mark.
Fast forward...
Draw# 85 on Mar 14 cut off ended up at 456.
And that’s why I was quoting above that the theories about the next cut off points in the next round is on such a vague imagination that these are pretty much impossible to predict.
That's because of 3 week gap right? Exception!
yes its all imagination and a little bit of logic and regression as well...
this above case is a 3 week draw! how many other 3 weeks draws we had? its a small percentage. so the probability is lower of a 3 week draw compared to a 2 week draw - hence with some guess work, logic, regression, common sense, past history, intuition and a little bit of imagination we can do some predictions/forecasts.
at the end, you're right that its really impossible to predict!
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