Ray of Hope - 89th Draw

[Superman89]

got the ita

 

[Janab1234]

Can someone tell me whats gonna be the next cut off score for next draw

 

[alexross]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th (2017):
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th (2017) to Jan 4th (2018)
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

From April 4th to April 19th
above 440:196 per day
above 430:220 per day
above 410:246 per day

From April 19th to May 4th
above 440:219 per day
above 430:238 per day
above 410:256 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:

For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day

Also, I'm so sorry guys, in my previous post I had made a mistake in calculations for entrants per day between April 4th to April 19th. I had used the number of ITAs as 3000 instead of 3500 to calculate so the per day number was smaller than it should be. I have made the corrections now. My apologies for the mistake.

 

[dip1971]

Based on the above i expect the cut-off to be 440 on May 9

My CRS 434 and will be there till 6th September 2018. Do I have any chance to get ITA?

 

[brmuralikrishnan]

ho

A little bit shocked and sad at the same time on the draw today.. I was expecting it to atleast 439.. 2 more draws before i lose 5pts..

how will you lose 5 points?

 

[soberdeepak]

ho

how will you lose 5 points?

Age

 

[sysadmin141]

Thanks a lot for the clarification.
The letter is a simple one or I need to sign an affidavit with a notary?

I'm not too sure about notarization but in my opinion just a simple letter should do. Anyone with experience should help please.[/QUOTE]

 

[Hardit singh]

Hi all, My PR application was rejected on April 22nd due to incomplete application. I created a new profile on May 6th with CRS of 461 - Do you think I will get an ITA in this round? Very anxious....

Did u get ur ITA?

 

[SLLE]

Hi Thay, it seems your analysis is usually on point, or close enough. Given the recent cut-off at 440, what do you predict for draw 91?

 

[SLLE]

I'm not too sure about notarization but in my opinion just a simple letter should do. Anyone with experience should help please.

[/QUOTE]
When did your status change to "Decision in progress?"

 

[SLLE]

Based on the above i expect the cut-off to be 440 on May 9

Hi Thay, what are your predictions for June 6?

 

[Thay]

Hi Thay, what are your predictions for June 6?

Hello,

I didn't have enough time to do calculations, but we should get 439 finally...

 

[SLLE]

Hello,

I didn't have enough time to do calculations, but we should get 439 finally...

I am at 433 and was wondering what my prospects could look like for the rest of the year.

 

[Thay]

I am at 433 and was wondering what my prospects could look like for the rest of the year.

No one, even the best gambler cannot tell you that. If you look at the pool distribution we do not know where most of the applicants are between 431 - 440. Although we seen how long it took to clear 441/440. If we see increase in ITA's per draw to 3750/4000 then there is a light in the tunnel. If not, i would look into increasing CRS (I know it's tough, I am here too)...

Cheers and all the best.

 

[SLLE]

No one, even the best gambler cannot tell you that. If you look at the pool distribution we do not know where most of the applicants are between 431 - 440. Although we seen how long it took to clear 441/440. If we see increase in ITA's per draw to 3750/4000 then there is a light in the tunnel. If not, i would look into increasing CRS (I know it's tough, I am here too)...

Cheers and all the best.

The challenge I am faced with is that if my common-law partner changes to a non-accompanying spouse, I would be way above the mark. In fact, I would have been selected for in any of the last three draws. But, my issue is that we would have to wait a year before I could sponsor him if I decide to move forward without him initially.