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Ray of Hope - 90th Draw

AB-27991

Member
May 9, 2018
17
1
You have a crs score of 441? And when did you create your profile? 12th dec ? Moreover in tiebreaker rule they mention the exact time in seconds too..may be your submission time is earlier than that time mentioned
Not sure what was the case the tie breaker time if you check was 1:30 AM UTC on Dec 12 which means 7 AM Indian standard time.
I entered the pool around 4 PM IST that day, hence the confusion.

I am estimating the time based on the time I got the first mail
 

Reddiered07

Hero Member
May 3, 2018
613
499
Not sure what was the case the tie breaker time if you check was 1:30 AM UTC on Dec 12 which means 7 AM Indian standard time.
I entered the pool around 4 PM IST that day, hence the confusion.

I am estimating the time based on the time I got the first mail
Anyways why you worried about time when you have received ITA..enjoy :)
 
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mary99

Star Member
Feb 28, 2018
140
139
I
Analysis and long term prediction for the remaining 2018.


Seeing the yesterday’s draw, I started wondering what is waiting for us in the upcoming months. So I sat with the available data and tried to make some sense of it.

My analysis is based on last year’s express entry draw data and I am comparing it with this year. We know last year the total target for express entry was 71700. For that CIC ended up issuing 84685 no of ITAs. Now I am aware of the argument that many people are making here which is, the target is for total admission and each ITA issued may result in 2-4 or more immigrant considering the accompanying spouse and dependents. Now I can understand that statement but I would like to see it this way, “The year 2017 also had similar target but still they ended up issuing around 13000 more ITAS then the target.” Now maybe in 2017 there were many rejection. Maybe around 50% of ITAs resulted in rejection! But I find that hard to believe.

That is why I think it is safe to assume for this year’s target 74900 which is 4% more than last year will also result in around 4% more issuance of ITAs. So we can set the total ITA target (I am aware that there there no term such as ITA target) for 2018 in the region of 88000.

So we can set the possible ITA no for 2018 as 88000

Now let’s compare what happened in 2017 and this year up until now. Last year up until April there were 10 draws and total 35973 no of ITAs were issued. Compared to that this year only 8 draws happened and total no of ITAS issued were 24500. So we can see that CIC is not keeping pace with previous years trend.

Now let us consider there are no back to back draw or even if there is one, there maybe 3 or 4 weeks delay so for our calculation we will say there will be 2 draws each month. So 1 in may and 14 more in the last seven months, we have 15 draws left. And total ITAs to be issued in this 15 draws will be 88000-3500-24500 = 60000. So to get to that no, each remaining draw will have to issue 60000/15 = 4000 ITAs.

Now that is encouraging if you ask me. Up until now 9 draws happened in 2018 so far and ITAs issued were 28000. So Maybe it is unlikely for CIC to issued 60k iTAs in just 15 draws, that then opens the door for more than 15 no of draws which only means back to back draw or 3-4 draw per month.


Now the bottom line is, I firmly belive this year nof od ITAS issued will be similar to lasy year if not more. In that case CIC will have to do more draws in order to catch up. Last year maximum no of ITAs were issued in the first half of the year and this year they will space it out throughout the year. That means there will be no sudden spike in the cut off.

· So Sorry to those who are in 410-425 range, I feel they are very unlikely to get a ITA.

· For people in the range of 425-430 you have a decent chance.

· 430+ guys have a good chance.

· for people above 435 it is just a matter of time.


Now let us tackle the issue of high scoring entry in the profile. As per my calculation the no of 440+ entry per week varies from 1200-1750. Now if we consider an average of 1500 profile per week above 440 entering the pool, then in the remaining 30 or so weeks of the year we will have 45000 no of people entering or updating their profile and enter with 440+ score in the pool. So still then according to our calculation of 60000 more ITAS to be issued this year, we have 15000 space left for existing profile in the pool. That surely will bring down score in the 425-430 region.

Now I would like to say again the total ITAS to be issued this year is not certain. It maybe more than 88000 or less than that. But even if the no of ITAS is same like last year , there are so many more ITAs to be issued in the remaining months of this year which means score are not going to stay in the 440 region for much longer because CIC will not be able to continue in the pattern that they set up since the start of 2018. Because that will mean they miss their target which I think is not gonna happen because everyone seemed so excited with their 3 year plan that was announced at the end of last year.

So guys, don’t lose hope. Things gonna change soon, I am pretty certain about it, just mark my words,


Prediction for coming months.

· Two-three more draw to happen with 3500 ITAs, one possible back to back draws within next 4 weeks.

· 3750-4000 ITAs per draw will be issued after that .

· After that no of ITAs will start to decrease and will hover around 3000-3500 region.


** If you guys dont agree with the analysis, please share your reason and view and we can discuss the differences.
I can imagine how long it would've taken for you to come up with such a beautiful analysis. Thank you so much! It brings hope to many of us sitting below 440s. I just hope everything turns out better next draw onwards. This waiting journey is tough on all of us and we need to be released from this trauma ASAP.

IRCC grant us our ITAs soonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
 

abnzyr18

Hero Member
Apr 11, 2018
281
237
I


I can imagine how long it would've taken for you to come up with such a beautiful analysis. Thank you so much! It brings hope to many of us sitting below 440s. I just hope everything turns out better next draw onwards. This waiting journey is tough on all of us and we need to be released from this trauma ASAP.

IRCC grant us our ITAs soonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
Yeah the wait is too painful
I am at 438 and this draw has actually disheartened many in this range....still hopeful that the scores will come down
 

akakiyani

Star Member
May 9, 2018
50
21
Pakistan
NOC Code......
2132
Hi, a quick question. Does only Gift Deed have to be on a stamp paper (Affidavit and LOE on simple paper) or do all three of the documents have to be on stamp paper?

Also, can I submit gift deeds from 2 people or only one should be used?
 

Maverick28

VIP Member
Feb 5, 2017
3,123
823
Canada
Hi, a quick question. Does only Gift Deed have to be on a stamp paper (Affidavit and LOE on simple paper) or do all three of the documents have to be on stamp paper?

Also, can I submit gift deeds from 2 people or only one should be used?
Gift Deed - Stamp paper
Affidavit - Usually stamp paper but depends on type
LOE - Plain Paper
 

Teja2000

Star Member
Mar 15, 2017
52
14
So around 1300-1400 people got added in just 5 days between 04-09 May. This is unusual and is a result of PNP nomination for sure. I read few days ago where someone posted a data which showed that Ontario issued around 700-800 nomination after April 25. I think that is probably the reason for this huge increase.

Overall, I am very disappointed with the draw of today, but at least I could say that this is unusual and in the next draw we might see more or less similar like in the past. maybe 2500-2800 new profile enetering above 440 so 700-800 profile should get flushed in the 441 and below region.

I think that there is some influence with PNP's given after 25th Apr but not too much effect as i got PNP that time but till now not approved and might be same for majority of other folks.
 

bstvicky

Newbie
May 11, 2018
2
0
Analysis and long term prediction for the remaining 2018.


Seeing the yesterday’s draw, I started wondering what is waiting for us in the upcoming months. So I sat with the available data and tried to make some sense of it.

My analysis is based on last year’s express entry draw data and I am comparing it with this year. We know last year the total target for express entry was 71700. For that CIC ended up issuing 84685 no of ITAs. Now I am aware of the argument that many people are making here which is, the target is for total admission and each ITA issued may result in 2-4 or more immigrant considering the accompanying spouse and dependents. Now I can understand that statement but I would like to see it this way, “The year 2017 also had similar target but still they ended up issuing around 13000 more ITAS then the target.” Now maybe in 2017 there were many rejection. Maybe around 50% of ITAs resulted in rejection! But I find that hard to believe.

That is why I think it is safe to assume for this year’s target 74900 which is 4% more than last year will also result in around 4% more issuance of ITAs. So we can set the total ITA target (I am aware that there there no term such as ITA target) for 2018 in the region of 88000.

So we can set the possible ITA no for 2018 as 88000

Now let’s compare what happened in 2017 and this year up until now. Last year up until April there were 10 draws and total 35973 no of ITAs were issued. Compared to that this year only 8 draws happened and total no of ITAS issued were 24500. So we can see that CIC is not keeping pace with previous years trend.

Now let us consider there are no back to back draw or even if there is one, there maybe 3 or 4 weeks delay so for our calculation we will say there will be 2 draws each month. So 1 in may and 14 more in the last seven months, we have 15 draws left. And total ITAs to be issued in this 15 draws will be 88000-3500-24500 = 60000. So to get to that no, each remaining draw will have to issue 60000/15 = 4000 ITAs.

Now that is encouraging if you ask me. Up until now 9 draws happened in 2018 so far and ITAs issued were 28000. So Maybe it is unlikely for CIC to issued 60k iTAs in just 15 draws, that then opens the door for more than 15 no of draws which only means back to back draw or 3-4 draw per month.


Now the bottom line is, I firmly belive this year nof od ITAS issued will be similar to lasy year if not more. In that case CIC will have to do more draws in order to catch up. Last year maximum no of ITAs were issued in the first half of the year and this year they will space it out throughout the year. That means there will be no sudden spike in the cut off.

· So Sorry to those who are in 410-425 range, I feel they are very unlikely to get a ITA.

· For people in the range of 425-430 you have a decent chance.

· 430+ guys have a good chance.

· for people above 435 it is just a matter of time.


Now let us tackle the issue of high scoring entry in the profile. As per my calculation the no of 440+ entry per week varies from 1200-1750. Now if we consider an average of 1500 profile per week above 440 entering the pool, then in the remaining 30 or so weeks of the year we will have 45000 no of people entering or updating their profile and enter with 440+ score in the pool. So still then according to our calculation of 60000 more ITAS to be issued this year, we have 15000 space left for existing profile in the pool. That surely will bring down score in the 425-430 region.

Now I would like to say again the total ITAS to be issued this year is not certain. It maybe more than 88000 or less than that. But even if the no of ITAS is same like last year , there are so many more ITAs to be issued in the remaining months of this year which means score are not going to stay in the 440 region for much longer because CIC will not be able to continue in the pattern that they set up since the start of 2018. Because that will mean they miss their target which I think is not gonna happen because everyone seemed so excited with their 3 year plan that was announced at the end of last year.

So guys, don’t lose hope. Things gonna change soon, I am pretty certain about it, just mark my words,


Prediction for coming months.

· Two-three more draw to happen with 3500 ITAs, one possible back to back draws within next 4 weeks.

· 3750-4000 ITAs per draw will be issued after that .

· After that no of ITAs will start to decrease and will hover around 3000-3500 region.


** If you guys dont agree with the analysis, please share your reason and view and we can discuss the differences.
Not to discourage anyone but want to add one reality to above marvellous analysis, there is a draw after every 14 days, don’t miscalculate it with 2 draws in month for example with the current scenario there will be 3 draws in the month of August, on 1/15/29 similarly there would be 2 extra draws in the whole year reducing scope to 15000-3500*2=8000 for people 440 and below. My own score is 423 with Wes evaluation of scdl(not recognised), the score will move up to 455 if scdl diploma gets recognition from IQAS. Enrolled in 2009 and completed my pgdba in 2011, if anyone can guide it will be a great help.
 

hope2018

Champion Member
Mar 14, 2018
1,304
591
Not to discourage anyone but want to add one reality to above marvellous analysis, there is a draw after every 14 days, don’t miscalculate it with 2 draws in month for example with the current scenario there will be 3 draws in the month of August, on 1/15/29 similarly there would be 2 extra draws in the whole year reducing scope to 15000-3500*2=8000 for people 440 and below. My own score is 423 with Wes evaluation of scdl(not recognised), the score will move up to 455 if scdl diploma gets recognition from IQAS. Enrolled in 2009 and completed my pgdba in 2011, if anyone can guide it will be a great help.
Mixed news guys, its raining nominations today from Ontario, got to know 5 such cases, also know many cases who are one step away from monination. Looks like it will have a bearing on next draw.
 

metabug

Star Member
Apr 20, 2017
76
59
Mixed news guys, its raining nominations today from Ontario, got to know 5 such cases, also know many cases who are one step away from monination. Looks like it will have a bearing on next draw.
Damn. Definitely not a good news. I hope their numbers are limited.
 

special3220

Hero Member
Jul 15, 2017
344
448
NOC Code......
6235
Mixed news guys, its raining nominations today from Ontario, got to know 5 such cases, also know many cases who are one step away from monination. Looks like it will have a bearing on next draw.
That is definitely not a good news for many of us. Another similar draw like last maybe waiting for us.

Can anyone please explain this confusion of PNP target and EE target? PNP has a different target for the year and many PNP nomination comes through the EE ITA and then get final PR. So are they counted in the EE target or in the PNP target? I mean say for example Ontario has a target of 6600, All of them eventually come to the EE pool and then get PR through Express entry. So they take up which quota? PNP or skilled immigrant via EE?
 
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Avengers

Star Member
Apr 26, 2018
85
112
Not to discourage anyone but want to add one reality to above marvellous analysis, there is a draw after every 14 days, don’t miscalculate it with 2 draws in month for example with the current scenario there will be 3 draws in the month of August, on 1/15/29 similarly there would be 2 extra draws in the whole year reducing scope to 15000-3500*2=8000 for people 440 and below. My own score is 423 with Wes evaluation of scdl(not recognised), the score will move up to 455 if scdl diploma gets recognition from IQAS. Enrolled in 2009 and completed my pgdba in 2011, if anyone can guide it will be a great help.
that will be evaluated positive
2 or more degree..congrats in advance..mine was done
 

Avengers

Star Member
Apr 26, 2018
85
112
scary draw ...going for IELTS again..since I have room for 9 more points. .Will try for those points ...tough but gotta go ..Currently LRWS 8,8.5,7,7