Thanks for the input. I am still new to this and opinions from the experts are always helpful in trying to understand the system as a whole.Very good try but, you have ommited some important facts:
1. EE is not just for FSW or CEC candidates but also for part of PNP immigrants.
2. It could be estimated that app 25% of all PNP went through EE (that is app. 13k people).
3. So in total app. 88k immigrants.
4. This year it looks like 1/3 of all PNP will use EE.
5. That together with higher quota will mean app. 100k people going through this system.
6. Lower amount of ITA Between September and February, does point to the overheating effect.
7. Overheating happened in the first half of 2017, where 3/4 of all ITA were issued. As a result people with lower score got in (albeit at cost of others during the second half year).
8. It looks that they learned they lessons and they do not go crazy anymore. Which gives them higher points candidates (and same strategy can be seen in Ontario PNP).
9. System gained lot of notoriety (that one is obvious given amount of active profiles).
10. Another side effect of the notoriety is the decreasing amount of declined ITA (which is the biggest portion of all wasted ITA).
11. Notoriety is also causing increase amount of new applicants per day (and you can see that when you compare statistic data of how many people in each point range did enter every day - just checking them for the last 6 months will give away increasing trend).
12. App. 500 ITA each draw are just for PNP applicants. So there are only 3k ITA per draw left. Which give according to your calculation 42k ITA for people without PNP.
13. Since moth PNP applicants are people with a bit lower score that are catching up with PNP, that would point to following conclustion:
- anybody below 430 - increase your score or forget about Canada
- 431-435 - only a big irregularity in the system would help you. but that one is not probable, so work on your score.
435-440 - you have chance, but time is against you, as the balance will go slowly up. You might profit from occasional swings because of low IELTS release or unexpected draw.
441-450 - grab you ITA while you still can, next year it might be too late
451+ a current safe zone for ITA
1. I understand that some part of PNP are always part of the EE, I did not count them out but considered them in the total ITA count. According to my calculation currently in average 1500 profile are entering above 440+ every week. Around 220 of them are from PNP. This figure varies according to the release of nomination from various provinces. So the flood of PNP are considered. So if the ITA remain in the 3500-4000 region the score will drop slowly but it will drop. For the score to remain above 440 something weird like the last week need to happen (1500 profile above 440 in just 5 days.)
2. I also agree with you with the fact that CIC now are more smart and has figured out way to properly utilized the express entry to get the maximum befit out of it for themselves. Sharper decrease is very unlikely and they will maintain this systematic way of issuing ITAS for the rest of the year. Therefore overheating issues like last year will not happen.