Analysis and long term prediction for the remaining 2018.
Seeing the yesterday’s draw, I started wondering what is waiting for us in the upcoming months. So I sat with the available data and tried to make some sense of it.
My analysis is based on last year’s express entry draw data and I am comparing it with this year. We know last year the total target for express entry was 71700. For that CIC ended up issuing 84685 no of ITAs. Now I am aware of the argument that many people are making here which is, the target is for total admission and each ITA issued may result in 2-4 or more immigrant considering the accompanying spouse and dependents. Now I can understand that statement but I would like to see it this way, “The year 2017 also had similar target but still they ended up issuing around 13000 more ITAS then the target.” Now maybe in 2017 there were many rejection. Maybe around 50% of ITAs resulted in rejection! But I find that hard to believe.
That is why I think it is safe to assume for this year’s target 74900 which is 4% more than last year will also result in around 4% more issuance of ITAs. So we can set the total ITA target (I am aware that there there no term such as ITA target) for 2018 in the region of 88000.
So we can set the possible ITA no for 2018 as 88000
Now let’s compare what happened in 2017 and this year up until now. Last year up until April there were 10 draws and total 35973 no of ITAs were issued. Compared to that this year only 8 draws happened and total no of ITAS issued were 24500. So we can see that CIC is not keeping pace with previous years trend.
Now let us consider there are no back to back draw or even if there is one, there maybe 3 or 4 weeks delay so for our calculation we will say there will be 2 draws each month. So 1 in may and 14 more in the last seven months, we have 15 draws left. And total ITAs to be issued in this 15 draws will be 88000-3500-24500 = 60000. So to get to that no, each remaining draw will have to issue 60000/15 = 4000 ITAs.
Now that is encouraging if you ask me. Up until now 9 draws happened in 2018 so far and ITAs issued were 28000. So Maybe it is unlikely for CIC to issued 60k iTAs in just 15 draws, that then opens the door for more than 15 no of draws which only means back to back draw or 3-4 draw per month.
Now the bottom line is, I firmly belive this year nof od ITAS issued will be similar to lasy year if not more. In that case CIC will have to do more draws in order to catch up. Last year maximum no of ITAs were issued in the first half of the year and this year they will space it out throughout the year. That means there will be no sudden spike in the cut off.
· So Sorry to those who are in 410-425 range, I feel they are very unlikely to get a ITA.
· For people in the range of 425-430 you have a decent chance.
· 430+ guys have a good chance.
· for people above 435 it is just a matter of time.
Now let us tackle the issue of high scoring entry in the profile. As per my calculation the no of 440+ entry per week varies from 1200-1750. Now if we consider an average of 1500 profile per week above 440 entering the pool, then in the remaining 30 or so weeks of the year we will have 45000 no of people entering or updating their profile and enter with 440+ score in the pool. So still then according to our calculation of 60000 more ITAS to be issued this year, we have 15000 space left for existing profile in the pool. That surely will bring down score in the 425-430 region.
Now I would like to say again the total ITAS to be issued this year is not certain. It maybe more than 88000 or less than that. But even if the no of ITAS is same like last year , there are so many more ITAs to be issued in the remaining months of this year which means score are not going to stay in the 440 region for much longer because CIC will not be able to continue in the pattern that they set up since the start of 2018. Because that will mean they miss their target which I think is not gonna happen because everyone seemed so excited with their 3 year plan that was announced at the end of last year.
So guys, don’t lose hope. Things gonna change soon, I am pretty certain about it, just mark my words,
Prediction for coming months.
· Two-three more draw to happen with 3500 ITAs, one possible back to back draws within next 4 weeks.
· 3750-4000 ITAs per draw will be issued after that .
· After that no of ITAs will start to decrease and will hover around 3000-3500 region.
** If you guys dont agree with the analysis, please share your reason and view and we can discuss the differences.
Very good try but, you have ommited some important facts:
1. EE is not just for FSW or CEC candidates but also for part of PNP immigrants.
2. It could be estimated that app 25% of all PNP went through EE (that is app. 13k people).
3. So in total app. 88k immigrants.
4. This year it looks like 1/3 of all PNP will use EE.
5. That together with higher quota will mean app. 100k people going through this system.
6. Lower amount of ITA Between September and February, does point to the overheating effect.
7. Overheating happened in the first half of 2017, where 3/4 of all ITA were issued. As a result people with lower score got in (albeit at cost of others during the second half year).
8. It looks that they learned they lessons and they do not go crazy anymore. Which gives them higher points candidates (and same strategy can be seen in Ontario PNP).
9. System gained lot of notoriety (that one is obvious given amount of active profiles).
10. Another side effect of the notoriety is the decreasing amount of declined ITA (which is the biggest portion of all wasted ITA).
11. Notoriety is also causing increase amount of new applicants per day (and you can see that when you compare statistic data of how many people in each point range did enter every day - just checking them for the last 6 months will give away increasing trend).
12. App. 500 ITA each draw are just for PNP applicants. So there are only 3k ITA per draw left. Which give according to your calculation 42k ITA for people without PNP.
13. Since moth PNP applicants are people with a bit lower score that are catching up with PNP, that would point to following conclustion:
- anybody below 430 - increase your score or forget about Canada
- 431-435 - only a big irregularity in the system would help you. but that one is not probable, so work on your score.
435-440 - you have chance, but time is against you, as the balance will go slowly up. You might profit from occasional swings because of low IELTS release or unexpected draw.
441-450 - grab you ITA while you still can, next year it might be too late
451+ a current safe zone for ITA
