still, if you insist normal maths 20k on average is above 480 and we have 8 more draws to go this year. as per 250 increments on all draw adding to 8 draws come to be 29000 keeping draw size won't increase after 3500. Adding 8k more to the pool as before every draw we see an average of 1000 adding in the pool. hence target goes up to 28k (people above 480) and by December end 29k ita will be issued. hence 480 is plausible and I'm doing on the lower side if 250 will be an increment on the other hand if we go by 500 increments we can see maybe 1 draw earlier.
We started the month of July with 8,200 candidates with CRS 501+ and using the logic you just presented, after 10,240 ITAs issued
we should have dropped below a few thousand numbers at least below that 8,200, but still, here we are, as per the latest draw, at 7,200 people with 501+ points.
I always knew that draws will easily reach 3,000, because the immigration numbers for 2023 allow that. Beyond 3,500 is not possible. I don't know what numbers they are planning to announce in November, but unless is something close to 100k, then 3,600 is your max number for ITAs bi-weekly. Current draws include PNPs, so take that into consideration.
The things that you left completely out are :
- CEC candidates being awarded 30-50 points per work experience beginning of September, which we will find out tomorrow.
- People who haven't gotten their ECA yet.
- People learning French and giving the exams.
- Those who got job offers recently.
- Those whose brother/sister/mother/father, step-this and step-that, dog and cat who recently became PR got awarded that sweet 15 points without doing jacksh!t.
Not to mention, I have never seen so many profiles added to the pool in such a short time frame. Almost 30k in two months.
I am not saying its impossible to reach 480, but with the current data we have, its highly unlikely.
