July draw predictions

[powerssdd]

I just don't understand why did we have scores dropped since the first resuming draw, given that the numbers were almost the same as you said?

I think that is because those who newly entered the pool are concentrated in the lower end of 500 - 600, like 500 - 510.
For the same reason, it will drop more slowly in the future.

 

[tomtom104]

I think that is because those who newly entered the pool are concentrated in the lower end of 500 - 600, like 500 - 510.
For the same reason, it will drop more slowly in the future.

makes sense!

 

[canuck655]

17/08: 525 - 527
31/08: 521 - 523

Generally you have more conservative views on the scores, do you really think it can drop to 521 (-12 points) in just 2 draws from 533? If you think that, then that could be a positive sign..

 

[powerssdd]

Generally you have more conservative views on the scores, do you really think it can drop to 521 (-12 points) in just 2 draws from 533? If you think that, then that could be a positive sign..

In the 520 - 530 level I believe this velocity will be reached.
But after it drops to the 500 - 510 level in the future, it will be much slower I think, unless the draws invite much more ppl then.

Let's see this Wednesday.

I just don't know how many ppl above 500 are entering the pool. There cannot be infinite of them.

 

[Hopesly]

Generally you have more conservative views on the scores, do you really think it can drop to 521 (-12 points) in just 2 draws from 533? If you think that, then that could be a positive sign..

If you noticed from the last draw less people added above 500 compared to 3 to 2 draws ago, I strongly beleive after 4 draws the score will drop considerably as the peak period for influx passed after all program draws began

 

[lumberjack23]

I hope your prediction is correct because I am at 522 myself.

Wait i am not sure people on this thread know that you are 522, could you confirm one more time?

 

[canuck655]

Wait i am not sure people on this thread know that you are 522, could you confirm one more time?

I didn't mean it in that sense. Believe me I am quite worried seeing other threads with people above 530 still and hence speculating when 522 could be called.

 

[tomtom104]

I didn't mean it in that sense. Believe me I am quite worried seeing other threads with people above 530 still and hence speculating when 522 could be called.

Please be mindful that there are still plenty of ppl below your score with the same concern or even worse. Thanks!

 

[canuck655]

Please be mindful that there are still plenty of ppl below your score with the same concern or even worse. Thanks!

Yeah I understand. I'm just hoping it comes down fast for everyone's case

 

[tring]

Rank required to be invited to apply: 2,250 or above

CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 525

Tie-breaking rule: December 28, 2021 at 11:03:15 UTC

Hope it keeps going this way

 

[shahram.nasaji]

#	Date	Immigration program	Invitations issued	CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited
229	August 17, 2022	No Program Specified	2,250	525

 

[Takita]

dang!

524, just missed.

 

[Takita]

I mean do you think 524 will make the cut 31/08 but not 17/08?

yes, I would think <25% chance on 8/17 but >90% on 8/31

After 08/03 there were 7600 ppl with 500-600 CRS points.
Assume 1000 new join on 08/17, 08/31 and 650 PNP. 2250 ITAs, meaning 1500 for 500-600 CRS ppl this time.

Similarly 1750 for 500-600 CRS on 08/31, meaning total of 1500+1750=3250 people between 500-600 will be invited in this month.
Most new joinees will be I assume between 500-520, so given 3250 invites for 500-600, I'd hope the score becomes 521 or less on 8/31 just going off sheer numbers.

@canuck655, 521 would definitely make it on 8/31.

 

[Biby236]

532 ! Whoop finally

 

[klubsoda]

Starting to feel a bit more optimistic for 501!