July draw predictions

[ElvisRamaj]

Commentary on how/where they operationally process applications is extreme speculation IMO. I am basing my views on commentary from Minister Fraser himself and PM Trudeau's mandate letter to him. Not sure why or how Edmonton matters.

FSW applications may be moving faster only because they have dedicated more resources to it as they are so far behind service standards and are now able to catch up because other agencies they rely on around the world for admissibility checks are also open.

I am not speculating on Edmonton. There are a lot of threads that you can reference for case files being moved there.

It matters, because it has changed the priority of the IRCC. Ukranians are top priority right now, which the number of application has surpassed 180,000 and also FSW because they want to clear as much backlog as possible before the resumption of draws.

Another think, those approved ukranian visas will have an open work permit up to 3 years as soon as they arrive in Canada, so you could guess the importance of CEC falling very very rapidly in this new reality, I mean shockingly low. In short, IRCC has plenty of numbers to meet their immigration quotas. At the end of the day, thats what matters, its politics. Not to mention the TR2PR which I don't know if they have started to process them or not, I believe has surpassed the 40K applications. TR and CEC are quite/almost similar when you come to think of it.

So, there you go, my "educated" guess based on information widely available.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

(41336-36281)/(41336) = 12% of FSW processed
(10338-8363)/10338 = 19% of CEC processed

If you look at the rate of processing, CEC is still ahead. FSW has a lot more applications in the backlog so its natural the absolute number processed would be higher; it has been paused for 7 months plus an additional 9 months. You were calling members here linear thinkers but didn't look at the mathematical calculation behind processing numbers.

Either way I'm not saying CEC will get special treatment, I'm saying you are 100% speculating (as are we) and you shouldn't try to frame it any other way.

Once again, I am not speculating, I am stating the importance of CEC in 2022 has fallen absolutely.

Those 8,000 applications left should be outland, because an inland should be processed an awfully lot faster. They don't need to show an updated PCC, proof of funds or medical examination, am I right ?

 

[aommnd]

Once again, I am not speculating, I am stating the importance of CEC in 2022 has fallen absolutely.

Those 8,000 applications left should be outland, because an inland should be processed an awfully lot faster. They don't need to show an updated PCC, proof of funds or medical examination, am I right ?

At this point you are trolling.

1) Look at the calculation I posted, 20% of CEC apps were processed and only 12% of FSW applications were processed that month, how is CEC losing importance?
2) CEC also required PCC, medical examination. PCC is required for any express entry.

So yeah, you are still speculating.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

At this point you are trolling.

1) Look at the calculation I posted, 20% of CEC apps were processed and only 12% of FSW applications were processed that month, how is CEC losing importance?
2) CEC also required PCC, medical examination. PCC is required for any express entry.

So yeah, you are still speculating.

1. I looked. I don't think you seem to get my point in explaining the situation.
2. If you are cec you have passed a background check at least once, which is the most time consuming factor during the whole process of an application.

The latest figures :

Express Entry Program	Persons as of April 11	Persons as of April 29
Total	45,181	40,889
Canadian Experience Class	8,363	7,522
Federal Skilled Worker Program	36,281	32,883
Federal Skilled Trades Program	537	484

Source:
https://www.cicnews.com/2022/05/irccs-application-backlog-grows-beyond-21-million-people-0525204.html#gs.zje5m1

 

[moscatojuices]

I am not speculating on Edmonton. There are a lot of threads that you can reference for case files being moved there.

It matters, because it has changed the priority of the IRCC. Ukranians are top priority right now, which the number of application has surpassed 180,000 and also FSW because they want to clear as much backlog as possible before the resumption of draws.

Another think, those approved ukranian visas will have an open work permit up to 3 years as soon as they arrive in Canada, so you could guess the importance of CEC falling very very rapidly in this new reality, I mean shockingly low. In short, IRCC has plenty of numbers to meet their immigration quotas. At the end of the day, thats what matters, its politics. Not to mention the TR2PR which I don't know if they have started to process them or not, I believe has surpassed the 40K applications. TR and CEC are quite/almost similar when you come to think of it.

So, there you go, my "educated" guess based on information widely available.

Fair enough, good point. I mean CEC will still matter - many of those Ukrainians will likely be eligible for CEC/PNP and they'll be well positioned to obtain 2-3 years' worth of Canadian work experience points. Yes IRCC has plenty of numbers, there is only one Canada and a good part of a 7 billion global population who wished they lived here.

I see you're from Albania. I dated an Albanian model once - she was (outrageously) hot and made nice Italian food, but decided to go to Australia instead whereas I wanted Canada.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Fair enough, good point. I mean CEC will still matter - many of those Ukrainians will likely be eligible for CEC/PNP and they'll be well positioned to obtain 2-3 years' worth of Canadian work experience points. Yes IRCC has plenty of numbers, there is only one Canada and a good part of a 7 billion global population who wished they lived here.

I see you're from Albania. I dated an Albanian model once - she was (outrageously) hot and made nice Italian food, but decided to go to Australia instead whereas I wanted Canada.

Yes, Albania definitely has a lot of beautiful girls, but I think you made the right-er choice.

 

[moscatojuices]

Yes, Albania definitely has a lot of beautiful girls, but I think you made the right-er choice.

Good luck to you, friend. I presume you're waiting FSW to resume or do you have an application in process?

 

[aommnd]

1. I looked. I don't think you seem to get my point in explaining the situation.
2. If you are cec you have passed a background check at least once, which is the most time consuming factor during the whole process of an application.

The latest figures :

Total	45,181	40,889
Express Entry Program	Persons as of April 11	Persons as of April 29
Canadian Experience Class	8,363	7,522
Federal Skilled Worker Program	36,281	32,883
Federal Skilled Trades Program	537	484

Source:
https://www.cicnews.com/2022/05/irccs-application-backlog-grows-beyond-21-million-people-0525204.html#gs.zje5m1

Look man, nobody here is to push someone else down, I'm not interested in being a crab in a bucket.

Second, please do the math once again:

CEC - Rate of processing = (8363 - 7522)/8363 * 100 = 10.05%
FSW - Rate of processing = (36281 - 32883)/36281 * 100 = 9.37%

CEC was still processed a little faster than FSW. You can't exactly compare absolute vs absolute simply because the scale is different, the FST with 500 applicants cannot process 1000s of applications per month.

2. Once again, for CEC there is no background check nothing that you pass until you submit an application. I think you are forgetting CEC isn't something unique, candidates in CEC can also apply to FSW because they meet the requirements. The main distinction between FSW and CEC is that FSW can work based on foreign experience and for outland candidates with zero connection to Canada versus CEC which requires experience from within Canada.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Good luck to you, friend. I presume you're waiting FSW to resume or do you have an application in process?

Yes, I am waiting for all program draws to resume.

 

[ElvisRamaj]

Look man, nobody here is to push someone else down, I'm not interested in being a crab in a bucket.

Second, please do the math once again:

CEC - Rate of processing = (8363 - 7522)/8363 * 100 = 10.05%
FSW - Rate of processing = (36281 - 32883)/36281 * 100 = 9.37%

CEC was still processed a little faster than FSW. You can't exactly compare absolute vs absolute simply because the scale is different, the FST with 500 applicants cannot process 1000s of applications per month.

2. Once again, for CEC there is no background check nothing that you pass until you submit an application. I think you are forgetting CEC isn't something unique, candidates in CEC can also apply to FSW because they meet the requirements. The main distinction between FSW and CEC is that FSW can work based on foreign experience and for outland candidates with zero connection to Canada versus CEC which requires experience from within Canada.

I think you keep misunderstanding me.

I didn't show the picture to analyze the math behind it, I showed it for the progress being made on both fronts. There is a lot of distinction between CEC and FSW, and I am not here to point at them, just merely stating that the priority toward CEC applicants has diminished considerably in 2022 for the reasons written above, thus this leads to believe that cec-specific draws will not happen in the near future.

 

[ag2020]

I think you keep misunderstanding me.

I didn't show the picture to analyze the math behind it, I showed it for the progress being made on both fronts. There is a lot of distinction between CEC and FSW, and I am not here to point at them, just merely stating that the priority toward CEC applicants has diminished considerably in 2022 for the reasons written above, thus this leads to believe that cec-specific draws will not happen in the near future.

In my opinion both FSW and CEC will be required. If you remember recently they are extending work permit for people whose are expiring in this year, in this way most of CEC candidate will able to work. Also, there was a news in past that whenever they resume FSW draw majority of CEC will not receive ita as score will be high. I believe they will start with FSW for 2-3 draw and then start FSW and CEC alternative draw.

 

[moscatojuices]

In my opinion both FSW and CEC will be required. If you remember recently they are extending work permit for people whose are expiring in this year, in this way most of CEC candidate will able to work. Also, there was a news in past that whenever they resume FSW draw majority of CEC will not receive ita as score will be high. I believe they will start with FSW for 2-3 draw and then start FSW and CEC alternative draw.

I agree and hope so, it infuriates me that someone in Canada, with a skilled job paying taxes, and with established community connections has a lower chance of an ITA than someone who has never been to the country simply because they have a Master's degree. How is that logical?

If you lose in-Canada applicants it's going to hurt the workforce really badly and exacerbate the current shortage. There is a valid economic reason to have CEC only draws.

 

[ag2020]

I agree and hope so, it infuriates me that someone in Canada, with a skilled job paying taxes, and with established community connections has a lower chance of an ITA than someone who has never been to the country simply because they have a Master's degree. How is that logical?

If you lose in-Canada applicants it's going to hurt the workforce really badly and exacerbate the current shortage. There is a valid economic reason to have CEC only draws.

 

[moscatojuices]

Great video, short answer is that we don't know. Remember that Trudeau wants Fraser to find ways to keep more temporary workers already in Canada - that was a job given to him in the mandate letter.

 

[aommnd]

I think you keep misunderstanding me.

I didn't show the picture to analyze the math behind it, I showed it for the progress being made on both fronts. There is a lot of distinction between CEC and FSW, and I am not here to point at them, just merely stating that the priority toward CEC applicants has diminished considerably in 2022 for the reasons written above, thus this leads to believe that cec-specific draws will not happen in the near future.

That is wrong though.

As I told you, you have to look at the rate of processing, NOT the absolute number of applications processed.

Dude did you not take elementary level mathematics? How do you measure progress? It is the proportion of applications processed in a given amount of time.

If a program has just 500 applications in backlog it will not process 2000 applications, but that does NOT mean it is slowed down.

I don't know why I am even bothering anymore, I'm arguing with someone who doesn't know elementary school maths...