It is not really fun waiting in the dark, but we all know that the number of ITA's and draw dates are not just random numbers in the mind CIC folks. They seem to follow this obvious linear inequality:
(total number of ITA's issued)/25000 - (number of days from January 1 to the draw date)/365 < .04
In which 25000 is the total quota of ITA's for 2015, and 356 is the number of days in an year of course.
I went over the data that we have, and in all of the 8 draws, the above inequality holds:
Round (total number of ITA's issued)/25000 - (number of days from January 1 to the draw date)/365
1 -0.05
2 -0.03
3 -0.04
4 -0.10
5 -0.005
6 0.04
7 0.03
8 0.04
So if this is true and they want to fiercely follow this linear constraint here are some predictions:
If there was a draw tonight, there would have been at most 1207 invitations, and
if there is a draw next week, there will be at most 1687 invitations.
Until N weeks from now there will be at most M invitations
1 1687
2 2166
3 2645
On the other hand, if we assume that
(total number of ITA's issued)/25000 - (number of days from January 1 to the draw date)/365 > 0.001
then we have:
Until N weeks from now there will be at least M invitations
1 712
2 1191
3 1670
(total number of ITA's issued)/25000 - (number of days from January 1 to the draw date)/365 < .04
In which 25000 is the total quota of ITA's for 2015, and 356 is the number of days in an year of course.
I went over the data that we have, and in all of the 8 draws, the above inequality holds:
Round (total number of ITA's issued)/25000 - (number of days from January 1 to the draw date)/365
1 -0.05
2 -0.03
3 -0.04
4 -0.10
5 -0.005
6 0.04
7 0.03
8 0.04
So if this is true and they want to fiercely follow this linear constraint here are some predictions:
If there was a draw tonight, there would have been at most 1207 invitations, and
if there is a draw next week, there will be at most 1687 invitations.
Until N weeks from now there will be at most M invitations
1 1687
2 2166
3 2645
On the other hand, if we assume that
(total number of ITA's issued)/25000 - (number of days from January 1 to the draw date)/365 > 0.001
then we have:
Until N weeks from now there will be at least M invitations
1 712
2 1191
3 1670
