apstone said:
So they updated the CIC processing times again. I am usually one for being able to just sit back and wait it out, however long it takes. Seems like a lot of people are coming through from January now, so that's good.
However, maybe some of you have more info on the information the CIC page shows us. Today, it says that the initial processing time is 82 days, and that they are working on applications received February 29th. This 2/29 date has not changed in several updating sessions, and I am wondering what date we are supposed to go off of to expect some movement to a VO.
I see that some users like Parker24 and some others from the spreadsheet have had movement, and that they applied in March. So...are we supposed to expect something at 82 days from application received, or when our date is around the same time as the date provided. 2/29 is like 4 months (~120 days) before today, so it is a big difference from 82. My application is 67 days old, so I am either about 2 weeks from movement or just half way through.....
I tend to lean towards the 82 day bit of it, seeing as some in March have had news. Also, doesn't really seem possible that they are still working on applications from 2/29 for 2-3 straight weeks
Any thoughts? Or are we all just speculating?
My two cents...
Let's review step 2 as context (since we have facts about what those figures represent). The timing the publish for visa offices to
complete step 2, is the timing it takes the VO to complete processing for 80% of the applications. If you dig a bit deeper,
you can find the 20%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 80% statistics are published for step 2. There is quite a bit of variation: for Buffalo Regional Processing Center, for example, 20% of cases were completed within 5 months, 30% in 5 mo., 50% in 7 mo., 70% in 9 mo., and 80% took 11 months to complete in 2011. This makes sense as some applications may be more complicated and therefore require additional intervention or more research to process for one reason or another or additional information requested either from the applicant/sponsor or other agencies.
There isn't as much info about the
dates published for step 1. However, I think it's reasonable to assume that there's also a variation in the timing it takes to process various applications.
While we all wish to be in the 20%, unfortunately that can't be the case for everyone. Given that CIC asks that you contact them if it has been longer than the timing posted, it's reasonable for CIC publishes as step 1 timing is when they are done - or close to done - with a certain date. CIC doesn't want to be deluged by calls since it would just slow things down (or make application fees more expensive since they'd need to increase staffing and the fees are supposed to reimburse the costs) if everyone called as soon as they started the first application from a certain date. Therefore, they likely publish figures for step 1 that also represent when they are done - or close to done - with a given date.
In contrast, the spreadsheets and what people report can help you get a sense of the best case scenario. And, we all like to hang on to that hope which helps keep us upbeat. For example, I know some April applicants have received their sponsorship AORs and sponsorship approval. Knowing this can give other April aplicants hope that they too will get a decision soon and the wait may be wrapping up ... and, it can also help make sure that other April applicants make sure to check their mail and e-mail spam a bit more closely. However, much as everyone may hope that their application is next in line, I think we can all agree that's simply not possible. Therefore, the reality is that some applicants won't hear for a while even if they too applied in April.
Bottom line: the devil's in the details and taking the time to understand what the figures mean. There is going to be a difference between what CIC publishes and what the spreadsheets report by the very nature of the information and volume of applications. Both sets of info make sense and need to be considered in context to be helpful and provide insights. Unfortunately, none of us have that elusive crystal ball to determine when a particular application will be completed and neither the spreadsheets nor the CIC published timing will pinpoint that date. However, they will help you bracket the likely timing for your case.
Hope this helps