kaka555 said:
Now I think the 2nd phase of 5K applications is over. Now this is the right time to presume when will our application processed as some of us are assuming 2019/2020 but some are of the view that the applications are to be processed in late 2018 and rest will be in late 2019. Keeping all the views I am of the view that first 2500 application of Jan 2016 are to be processed up to Dec 2017 and rest 7500 applications will be processed up to June/July 2018. Base of my calculation is as under:-
As per the graph (link given at page 256 of the Forum by –MK-) shows 42387 persons pending with 2.7 years wait time (clearly mentioned person not applications ).Again Rosie writing at page 257 as for 2014 – 5000 applications consist of 9061 person and for 2015 – 5000 applications consist of 8069 persons. This means average goes to approx... 1.7 persons per application but I am of the view that average 1.5 person per application as IRCC allows 20000 persons per year as per the policy and when these applications are processed 1.7 person will reduced to 1.5 person per application due to not maintaining of LICO, Medical Issues ,Family circumstances, LVO delayed frustrations, personnel record, police verification, mis-representation in Forms not matched with the record they are having earlier of sponsor as well as of applicants and finally the survival of the persons applied, all these affects/reduces total number of persons.
So keeping in mind 42387 (persons are in the back log in Jan 2015)+ 8069 (5000 applications in 2015) = 50456 – 20000(processed in 2015)=30456 (at the year ending 2015 or Jan 2016) + 15000 person (of 10000 application in Jan 2016) =45456 – 20000 (person processed in 2016) =25456 (at the year ending 2016 or Jan 2017) then -20000 (processed in 2017 )= 5456 that takes another 4 or 5 months in 2018 and in the likewise situation the back log will be eliminated at the end of 2021 (only 456 persons in the backlog and then every application will processed in only 6 -8 months).
End 2016 = 25456 + 15000 (10,000 applications in 2017) =40456 – 20000 (processed in 2017) =20456 + 15000 (new 10000 applications in 2018) = 35456 – 20000 (processed in 2018) =15456 +15000 (10000 applications in 2019) =30456 -20000 (processed in 2019) = 10456 + 15000 (10000 applications in 2020) =25456 – 20000 (processed in 2020) = 5456 + 15000 (10000 applications in 2021) = 20456 – 20000 (processed in 2021) = 456 persons at the end of 2021 or Jan 2022.
As per Vitlen,, Tamilnadu, dcdoudh ,Pamma 97 and Rossie all the statements are very impressive. As you all know that 22 files out of 52 from 2014 (2014 spread sheet/Forum) application having movement like (3-approval for sponsorship,4- transferred to LVO., 1- medical received, 11-sponsorship in progress, 2-PR in process). According to sponsorship parents in 2015 forum DTNNN at page 207 writes/says request for additional documents received and 741953 at same page writes--- someone from Chinese forum applied in 2015 got documents request ,parents’ marriage certificate etc. against the application Jan 2,2015 at around 10 AM.
According to all these progress it seems the Liberals like to clear the back-log very soon .
As per the CIC website (link provided by IndoCanadian 777) graph shows 40511 persons, at the start of Jan 2016 are in backlog. Out of these 20000 are already processed in 2016 Apox. the same figure estimated/projected/predicted as per my old post #4036 dated 8th April 2016.
I think the authorities are not finding as much application prior to 2011 which are about to decision made, so processed some of the application of years 2014,2015,2016 in rush so that Quota of 20000 persons be fulfilled for the year 2016 . As the first application of year 2016 as per spread sheet, issued visa on 6th sep 2016 Miss Frowz and AHRPK got visa on 26 oct 2016 and also landed on 30 oct 2016.
On spread sheet there are about 400 members those got their credit card charged so my observation is one member represent 25 applications (400x25=10000).
In this regard about
40x25=1000 got their application completed and case closed,
22x25=550 got the decision made,
10x25=250 got the PPR request,
57x25=1405 got their medical request and med received/passed,
70x25=1750 received medical requests,
135x25=3375 received PR-in-Process,
47x25 =425 got their sponsorship approval
This shows about 8700 application out of 10000 are already touched as per 30 april 2017.
So be patient, every one is in the que, wait and not to creat panic among the forum members. I think we all are lucky as the new system is through Lottery, may one fall in it or not.