Thread for people using the Guatemala Office

[ferd2000hn]

Backlogs per Category at Canadian Embassy in Guatemala as of 31/Dec/2011:

ECONOMIC CLASS

FEDERAL SKILLED WORKER
Pre C-50 (Before Feb/2008): 1
FSW1 (Feb/2008 – Jun/2010): 246
FSW2 (Jul/2010 – Jun/2011): 32
FSW3 (Jul/2011 – Jun/2012): 11
TOTAL FSW: 290

OTHER ECONOMIC CLASS
Quebec Skilled Worker (QSW): 5
Investors, Entrepreneurs, Self Employed, Live-In Caregivers (Business): 24
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): 42
TOTAL OTHER ECONOMIC CLASS: 71

TOTAL ECONOMIC CLASS: 361

NON-ECONOMIC CLASS
Spouses, Children, Partners (FamClass1): 407
Parents & Grandparents (FamClass2): 65
Humanitarian Class: 111
TOTAL NON-ECONOMIC: 583

TOTAL PERMANENT RESIDENT: 944

 

[ferd2000hn]

Reception Rates per Category at Canadian Embassy in Guatemala up to 31/Dec/2011

Yearly: Yearly average from 2006 to 2011
Quarterly: Quarterly average from Q1 2008 to Q4 2011
Monthly: Monthly average from Jan 2010 to Dec 2011
Last 6 Months: Monthly average from Jul 2011 to Dec 201
Reception rates calculated as: Total Received/Number of Periods, rounded

Yearly Quarterly Monthly Last 6 Months
FSW: 132 30 7 2
QSW: 15 3 1 1
Business: 8 1 0 0
PNP: 62 14 4 3

Total EC: 217 48 13 6

FamClass1: 501 120 38 31
FamClass2: 50 12 2 2
HumClass: 94 19 6 6

Total NonEC: 645 150 46 39

Total PR: 862 198 59 45

NOTES
FSW: Since sub-classes are either closed or quota based, it makes little sense to calculate averages for each and a general FSW is calculated. Totals per sub-category are indicated below:

Total Received Notes
Pre C-50: 332 +85 in backlog at beginning of 2006
FSW1: 416
FSW2: 35
FSW3: 11 From Jul/2011 – Dec/2011

 

[ferd2000hn]

Processing Rates per Category at Canadian Embassy in Guatemala up to 31/Dec/2011

Yearly: Yearly average from 2006 to 2011
Quarterly: Quarterly average from Q1 2008 to Q4 2011
Monthly: Monthly average from Jan 2010 to Dec 2011
Last 6 Months: Monthly average from Jul 2011 to Dec 201
Processing rates calculated as: (Total Approved + Total Rejected + Total Withdrawn)/Number of Periods, rounded

Yearly Quarterly Monthly Last 6 Months
Pre C-50: 98 33 No Cases No Cases
FSW1: 56 14 5 5
FSW2: 3 <1 <1 1
FSW3: No Cases No Cases No Cases No Cases
FSW Total: 98 29 6 5

QSW: 16 5 1 2
Business: 4 1 0 0
PNP: 57 17 6 6

Total EC: 176 52 14 13

FamClass1: 503 143 44 51
FamClass2: 46 15 4 4
HumClass: 88 23 6 8

Total NonEC: 638 180 53 63

Total PR: 813 233 67 76

NOTES
Pre C-50: Rates calculated using 2006-2009 data. In 2010 and 2011 too few cases were processed.
FSW1: Rates calculated using 2009-2011 as no cases were processed before 2009.
FSW2: Only 3 cases had been finalized up to 31/Dec/2011, this skews averages, but decided to include anyway, to see how it changes in the future.
FSW3: No cases had been finalized by 31/Dec/2011
Business: Only 1 Case was approved in 2011, driving monthly rates down.

 

[ferd2000hn]

Average Approval Rates per Category at Canadian Embassy in Guatemala up to 31/Dec/2011

Yearly: Yearly average from 2006 to 2011
Quarterly: Quarterly average from Q1 2008 to Q4 2011
Monthly: Monthly average from Jan 2010 to Dec 2011
Last 6 Months: Monthly average from Jul 2011 to Dec 201
Approval rates calculated as: Total Approved / (Total Approved + Total Rejected)

Yearly Quarterly Monthly Last 6 Months
Pre C-50: 59% 57% 63% No Cases
FSW1: 56% 56% 70% 72%
FSW2: 100% 100% 100% 100%
FSW3: No Cases No Cases No Cases No Cases

QSW: 94% 93% 94% 91%
Business: 50% 51% 57% No Cases
PNP: 97% 97% 97% 94%

FamClass1: 88% 88% 91% 91%
FamClass2: 87% 87% 92% 96%
HumClass: 83% 84% 87% 90%

NOTES
FSW1: No cases were processed in 2008, and there was an 86% Rejection rate in 2009, due mostly to applications filed between Feb/2008 and Nov/2008 that drives down the yearly and quarterly averages.
FSW2: Only 3 cases had been finalized up to 31/Dec/2011, all approved. Expect some Rejections to show on next quarter’s data.

 

[Mez007]

My File is in that Office , long way to Go seems like. I hope not

 

[ferd2000hn]

Canadian Embassy in Guatemala Statistics Comments and Outlook

With the reduction in application rates due to FSW Quotas in 2010 and then halved in 2011, severe restrictions on Investors and no new applications for parents & grandparents we can expect a backlog reduction, and a quicker answer. In fact the last six months indicate a 1.7 cases processed per application received. However, since the backlog was of 12.5 months, it would take until mid 2013 for the Embassy to be up-to-date, meaning little or no wait for a case to be processed, if all other variables remain equal. Let’s see what happens with 2012Q1 data.

There was a very interesting reduction in the Family Class for Spouses, Children and Partners number of admitted applications, from a quarterly average from 2008Q1-2011Q3 of 125 applications to just 28 in Q42011, and just 3 applications coming in Nov & Dec 2011. At first I thought this was a Guatemala-only anomaly, but in fact it happened all over the world. I couldn’t find a reason for the decrease, but if reception of applications keeps at these low levels we can expect an even faster reduction in backlog.

Since Spouses, Children and Partners amount to 62% of all processed cases, with an average of 51 cases over the last six months and a backlog of 407 at 31/Dec/2011; if processing rates stay at 51 and 3 new cases per month, the Embassy should be up-to-date by Sep 2012, and then that capacity could be used to process other categories. The most likely scenario is a small reduction in monthly processing rates for this Family Class and allocation of this capacity to other categories. We’ll see with next quarter data.

Now I'm open for questions, requests and comments...

Cheers!

 

[Mez007]

Canadian Embassy in Guatemala Statistics Comments and Outlook

With the reduction in application rates due to FSW Quotas in 2010 and then halved in 2011, severe restrictions on Investors and no new applications for parents & grandparents we can expect a backlog reduction, and a quicker answer. In fact the last six months indicate a 1.7 cases processed per application received. However, since the backlog was of 12.5 months, it would take until mid 2013 for the Embassy to be up-to-date, meaning little or no wait for a case to be processed, if all other variables remain equal. Let's see what happens with 2012Q1 data.

There was a very interesting reduction in the Family Class for Spouses, Children and Partners number of admitted applications, from a quarterly average from 2008Q1-2011Q3 of 125 applications to just 28 in Q42011, and just 3 applications coming in Nov & Dec 2011. At first I thought this was a Guatemala-only anomaly, but in fact it happened all over the world. I couldn't find a reason for the decrease, but if reception of applications keeps at these low levels we can expect an even faster reduction in backlog.

Since Spouses, Children and Partners amount to 62% of all processed cases, with an average of 51 cases over the last six months and a backlog of 407 at 31/Dec/2011; if processing rates stay at 51 and 3 new cases per month, the Embassy should be up-to-date by Sep 2012, and then that capacity could be used to process other categories. The most likely scenario is a small reduction in monthly processing rates for this Family Class and allocation of this capacity to other categories. We'll see with next quarter data.

Now I'm open for questions, requests and comments...

Cheers!

Thanks for the info...
What's is your timeline with the Guatemala office now ?

 

[tica1008]

Hi!! AmiMarin! I hope everything has workout with you and your husband. I know how terrible the feeling is. My dad and I applied for my pr in sept 2011. Guess what after months of calling and calling the call centre and telling us to wait more my dad sent a letter when they finally answered to him that "we are sorry for the inconvinience but we are unable to locate your application at this time"then went on about requesting all info againa nd canada post sent and fees and the rest. Hopefully everything works out faster. It was exactly 8 months waiting for nothing. They got our copies May 25th and actually approved my dad in less than a week. We are just a tiny concerned about the VO in Guatemala but gotta wait and see now. I understand what your saying about children, although I ma not underage I am a student actually admitted to U of C and havent been able to be back in Canada because of how much money they charged international students.... but oh well, gotta trust God, all happens in his time. Good luck!

 

[Master7]

Great job Ferd2000!! Where did you get all these stats & info though?

 

[ferd2000hn]

In page 38 of the thread I describe how I found the data... it's from a website with all sort of statistics of the Canadian Gov. Feel free to browse, but you will need to download several excel files to gather all the data from which my information is derived. You can do it yourself... or trust me... In about 2 weeks the data from Jan-Mar/2012 will be included and I will update stats and comments.

This is the link to the stats website (replace commas): www,data,gc,ca/default,asp?lang=En&n=F9B7A1E3-1

 

[Farfelu]

In page 38 of the thread I describe how I found the data... it's from a website with all sort of statistics of the Canadian Gov. Feel free to browse, but you will need to download several excel files to gather all the data from which my information is derived. You can do it yourself... or trust me... In about 2 weeks the data from Jan-Mar/2012 will be included and I will update stats and comments.

This is the link to the stats website (replace commas): www,data,gc,ca/default,asp?lang=En&n=F9B7A1E3-1

great job ferd, would you please share the names of the data set you used to compile your analysis? i understand there may be a few different sets used. thanks.

 

[ferd2000hn]

I feel like I would be taking some fun out of it, but these are the datasets:
- Permanent Resident Visa Applications Received Abroad - English
- Overseas Permanent Resident Inventory - English
- Permanent Resident Applications Processed Abroad and Processing Times - English
- Permanent Resident Summary by Mission - English

They contain global info... I would've liked to have the time and produce an Access DB to browse all Global>Regional>Embassy info as desired, alas I don't so I use a simple excel file to compile data into so some sort of meaningful info for Guatemala only. If you (or anyone else) wants to tackle that project you're welcome!

 

[Master7]

In page 38 of the thread I describe how I found the data... it's from a website with all sort of statistics of the Canadian Gov. Feel free to browse, but you will need to download several excel files to gather all the data from which my information is derived. You can do it yourself... or trust me... In about 2 weeks the data from Jan-Mar/2012 will be included and I will update stats and comments.

This is the link to the stats website (replace commas): www,data,gc,ca/default,asp?lang=En&n=F9B7A1E3-1

No problem Ferd We trust you by the way you mention that if the tendency keeps the same the backlog should be cleared by March 2013 ? If it is so how long would it take the Guatemala office to process FSW applications after March 2013?
Thanks again for the hard work !

 

[ferd2000hn]

It's hard to know what will happen in the future, right now we now that there won't be any new Parent & Grandparent PR applications and that FSW caps are still in place. From Q4 2011 data we know that number of Family Class applications dropped sharply in Nov & Dec (just 3 applications!). We also know from historical data that the Guatemala Embassy has been reducing the backlog by about 70-75 cases per month, withdrawals not included. From these 70-75, 45-50 are from Family Class.

So, IF the number of new Family Class applications stay at Nov-Dec/2011 levels AND the Embassy keeps processing at the same rate, the backlogs should be completely processed by March/2013. This means that any new applications would be promptly processed, in a matter of days / couple of weeks.

However, many things can happen; from a good source I learned that in late 2010 / early 2011 there was a staff reduction in Guatemala which impacted processing times. There could be further staff reductions / reassignments as backlogs shrink. Family Class applications could rise to previous levels (some 50 new cases per month). The new Temporary Visas processing center in Guatemala could not deliver as expected. There could be unforeseeable rises in other PR classes, etc.

We'll have a better picture in a couple of weeks... stay tuned!

 

[Master7]

Absolutely useful information!! Thanks again ! Please keep this thread going as you find out more information.