AVO - My Analysis
This may or may not be accurate, but as long as it gives people some succor and hope, I would have achieved my goal!
Rationale:
- From the past, AVO and LVO (2 of the slowest Visa offices) have always had very similar timelines -- almost as if they check each other's progress to process applications. Currently, LVO is issuing PPRs to July applicants, which means AVO is 3 months behind with issuing PPRs since they are still on April applications.
- AVO has been issuing interview invitations and ADRs to applicants from April -- end of June (at least two confirmed June applicants got invited for an interview today -- one was a June 28 applicant).
- To the best of my knowledge, GCKey or ECAS hasn't changed for anyone from April, excluding those with an interview invitation and/or ADRs.
- AVO typically issues PPR on an average of 5 months after medical request. They have obviously missed this target.
- AVO is trying to get back to their typical 9-10 months average processing time. 12 months and above is unfortunate and unforgivable if there are no complications on the case.
- This post is for spousal sponsorship applications only.
Analysis and Prediction:
- AVO is at the moment not updating applications online.
- AVO is currently reviewing eligibility for all applicants between April and June
- Those with confirmed interview dates will be getting straight approval (usually they don't need PPR since they'll likely be asked to drop their passport) within days (usually a day or two after the interview). We pray against refusal.
- Applicants between April and June without ADR or an interview will most likely not be getting any further information till PPR. In other words, I mean don't expect interview or ADR again, unless you still haven't got medical request (which is a totally different case -- it is not unheard of for PPR to come with a medical request at the same time. What it means is that you will have to submit your passport with proof that you have concluded your medical exam. Your application will be approved as soon as you pass the exam).
- The background check is likely on for all applicants between April - June, even without any notification from AVO. The agency in charge of this is possibly slower than usual.
- April - June applicants will likely be issued PPRs around the same time (day or week) and most likely before the end of April.
- Next week, expect either more ADRs or interview requests for July applicants (they are still within the goal of 9 - 10 months time frame) or PPRs for April - June applicants who haven't got either ADRs or interview requests.
- If more ADRs or interview requests come in next week for July applicants, then it means AVO is trying to process April - July applications all at once to close up the gap between them and LVO or other VOs. PPRs will likely be coming once this is done for all April - July applicants before the end of April (worst case scenario, first week May). The week(s) after ADR/Interview is issued to July applicants will be one of very heavy rain of PPRs for April - July applicants (not fair to April and May applicants who have to wait this long to get their PPRs). This is good news for August and other applicants who can then count on AVO's commitment to reduce processing time back to the 9-10 months average.
- If neither PPRs nor ADR/Interview happens next week, then I have no idea what AVO is up to and you have just wasted your time reading this very long post--I'm so so sorry for this!
- Keep praying, it's almost over!
I hope this lifted your spirit up a bit and start your weekend on a nice note of renewed hope. All the best!