. . . Now, your assertion that few people are stuck in security screening is not backed up by any evidence. First, whilst the screening manual recommends that files are processed simultaneously in order to determine any prohibitions, for citizenship, those specificity referred for security screening will find their file effectively on hold, awaiting results (even if the file says in progress, local offices will confirm that it is on hold). This can easily be determined by ATIP request for security status from csis. If they confirm that security screening is still underway, and if the local office confirm that they won’t proceed until they have the result, (advanced) security/criminality screening is holding up the file.
second, there are very few recent statistics on csis screening referrals. . . .
I admit using terms like "
few" is overly vague and here, in a context where a small percentage nonetheless represents many thousands of PRs applying for citizenship, my use of "
few" probably muddles things some. Sorry. My clumsy choice of words should not, however, get in the way of recognizing the big difference there is between the vast majority of qualified applicants versus the relatively rather small percentage of those for whom there is a security or criminality "
snag" (here too, using "
snag" for lack of a better term) that results in stalling the progress of processing a citizenship application due to an outstanding (incomplete) RCMP or CSIS clearance.
I am not sure of your intentions, but it seems like you challenge what I described by countering, for example, "
screening referrals can effectively put a file on hold," which is something you restate multiple times, such as also asserting (correctly I should add) "
Csis security screening due to IRCC referrals can most certainly hold up applications."
But that is something I also said:
"If there are security concerns about an applicant, for example, sure, that applicant can encounter significant delays and, in cases involving more serious security concerns, the applicant might encounter very lengthy delays."
And this is something I have referred to in many posts in many discussions here. I often reference security screening delays as being a common culprit when there is an extraordinary delay utterly disproportionate to those suffered by other applicants.
Going back to my clumsy use of the term "
few," considering there are hundreds of thousands of citizenship applications in process, the number affected this way is undoubtedly bigger than a "
few." But still, most likely, just a small percentage.
It is true, very much so, we have very limited statistical information in this area. It is difficult to even broadly estimate the numbers. And yes, processing procedures are continually changing, but most of the core elements remain consistent. For example, no rocket science necessary to map the trajectory of how applicants with a history in conflict zones have a higher risk of increased security screening, including a CSIS check that can stall the progress of a citizenship application. The precise numbers affected may have changed some over time, but this and most other contexts in which there are security concerns is not a new thing, not something that has changed by much.
You refer to a "
minuscule percentage" affected twenty years ago, and in the past CSIS screening holding up applicants as "
very rare." I cannot say what the percentage affected was back then, but I can say that for more than a decade, plus years, that scores of complaints about how slow processing was (and yes, on previous occasions it has been slower than it is now) rather regularly, almost continually, were excused by CIC, now IRCC, as waiting on security checks over which CIC/IRCC claimed it had no control. While I am not sure, my guess is that the percentage back then was small, even if, perhaps, significantly more than a "
minuscule percentage," and while the number affected may have indeed grown, including in particular recently, it is probable the percentage is still at least relatively small.
The overriding objective of my previous post, in contrast, was to
reassure the vast majority of qualified applicants there is no reason to worry about the formal RCMP and CSIS clearances, even if their GCMS records do not show them as "completed" yet, and even if an IRCC representative has brushed off their queries with the excuse the application is waiting on a background clearance. And yeah, again, with EXCEPTIONS. Yeah, again, "
screening referrals can effectively put a file on hold."
I further admit that my observations largely gloss over and do not address much how it works for those, the small percentage affected, whose application is stalled due to a security clearance concern. I do not mean to be cavalier or dismissive, to in any way diminish the impact this has on them. Even if it only adds six months to a year to the processing timeline (noting it can go much, much longer), that is a substantial imposition and for many grossly unfair. But that is a big subject, hugely complex, and as I noted, tends to be tied very much to individual specific situations. I will say, and say it with emphasis, the insinuation there is "
some conspiracy to offload or delay backlog files for 'security reasons'” is far-fetched conspiracy theory . . . (too many appellations to enumerate).
I will acknowledge, in contrast, in repetition actually, that slow processing complaints are all too often brushed off by IRCC personnel with the
waiting-for-security-clearance excuse. Much like seen in conversations similar to this one a decade and more ago. Same refrain, different year. Which leads back to reassuring many here that unless they know (or should know) of some reason why there might be a security or criminality issue for them, it is unlikely their application is being held up for a security or criminality concern, and even if so, if for some reason a security or criminality question has stalled their application, it is very unlikely it will be for long.
That said, I will not pretend to know the cases of other participants in this thread well enough to sort who are among the small percentage affected by a security or criminality concern stalling their application, compared to those among the vast majority for whom the RCMP and CSIS clearances are not causing much if any delay in their case, even though their files show one or the other clearance still outstanding. It is possible, for example, in regards to the OP here, for this thread, there is a criminality concern and that is stalling progress; but absent knowing the OP's case and relevant history in detail, it appears just as likely, if not more likely, that the OP's application is bogged down in the slow processing that scores and scores of applicants are enduring and is not due to a delay in the criminality check itself, again even though the OP's file does not show the RCMP clearance completed.
Regarding the likelihood that most (not all) those affected know who they are and to a large extent why, I anticipated the protest otherwise. Been here, heard those protests, and been elsewhere (including the forum I moderated for years) where I also heard the same protests, going back years more than a decade. Things change, some, yeah, but a lot does not change all that much.