No one is saying any app arrived after Jan 16 will make to 5000 CAP. But who knows when the 5000 CAP is reached before Jan 16? Jan 5? Why? Just because no one is reporting CIC is charging today? Maybe you are right, but without seeing all the apps arrived after Jan 6 are returned and reported back to this forum, it is just the same speculating one way or the other.
Probably it is safe to ask why the apps arrived on Jan13 still has not been returned if the CAP is at Jan 5? CIC is slow on returning apps? Maybe, because this is simple to think this way. But on the other side, it is also perfectly OK to think they are within 5000 CAP.
Again, no update is a good thing now. Don't lose the hope until the apps are returned. Even your app is returned, come back to this forum and see if everyone else in the same batch are returned too, if there is something saying you missed the 5000 cut-off time! There is a chance to raise a case, because someone else make to the 5000 CAP on the same day!