No one can make predictions about CRS cutoff...
but we can present our analysis of past data..
Last four draws have fetched 1500+ ITAs in each draw.. so we can expect the similar numbers in this 14th draw also.. (1500+ ITAs)
As per Mid-year EE report, there were 2180+ applicants having 450+ CRS as on July 6th, 2015.
>1000 51
950 - 999 38
900 - 949 40
850 - 899 65
800 - 849 62
750 - 799 64
700 - 749 27
650 - 699 7
600 - 649 1
550 - 599 2
500 - 549 38
450 - 499 1,786 at this point 2181 on 6 Jul 12th n 13th draw (3097) which means 961 entered in pool within 14 days with CRS 450+
400 - 449 8,770
350 - 399 14,597
300 - 349 12,517
250 - 299 2,247
200 - 249 585
150 - 199 225
100 -149 75
<100 21
Total 41,218
Source: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp
Out of 41218, 5% profiles have CRS 450 & above (approx 2000 candidates) and 20 % of profiles have CRS between 400 -449 (approx 8800)
so 25 % profiles of entire EE Pool are above 400 CRS (1786+8800 = 9500)... and those are the most expected profiles to get ITAs apart from those PNP profiles nominated under OOPNP and other PNPs such SINP, MPNP etc.
Every Draw have almost 50% of ITAs given to CEC profiles, this may be mainly due to LMIA (with additional 600 points).
As per report, every week 1500 new profiles are added in the EE pool and if 40% of these are considered not eligible (as per the statistics of last mid-year report published by CIC), then also 900 new EE profiles will be added every week..
at an average of 130 per day.
So we can assume that 130 x 4 = 500-520 new eligible profiles added in the EE pool during 6th to 10th July.
25% of these 500 new profiles, it will be 125 new profiles added with CRS 400 & above.
Just after 4 days of publishing this report, 12th draw happened on July 10th with 1581 ITAs and 463 cutoff...
so, 2190 - 1581 = 600 applicants were remained in the pool having CRS between 450 to 463.. plus newly added 500 profiles to entire EE pool.
That means there were average 45-50 applicants sitting at every point increase if we count from 450 CRS to 463 CRS (difference of 13 points CRS within 600 applicants)
13th draw: July 17th with 1516 ITAs and 451 cutoff..
this was 12 CRS points lower than previous cutoff and we can consider here that those 600 applicants above CRS 450 from last draw got ITAs in this draw (just to exclude those applicants with CRS 450)
Out of these 1500+ ITAs, if we consider 200 were given towards PNP with additional 600 points, and at least 40% (600 ITAs) given to CEC profiles,
then also there were 100 ITAs given to new profiles who were previously not into the pool but now they became eligible to get the ITA.
This accounts for those new 130+ eligible profiles added into EE pool per day (1500 per week) and so during 11 days from 6th july to 17th july total 11 x 130 = 1500 eligible profiles may have added.. and of this 5 % (approx 75-100) will be having CRS of 450+ and so they got ITA in this 13th draw.
If you see.. OOPNP have started from 2-July-2015 and they have sent invitations to as many applicants who are 400+ CRS.. OOPNP have 2700 nominations to give away.. even if they give 20% of these in Aug draw.. then it will be 500+ ITAs alone from OOPNP with additional 600 points..
so, If those invitations are going to convert into ITAs in this draw with additional 600 points, this month we can expect a surge in CRS cutoff...
These are just ITAs for OOPNP, if we add up ITAs for SINP, Nova Scotia, MPNP and other PNPs, then we can add up more 100 ITAs into this..
so total 700+ ITAs we can expect only from PNPs in next draw happening in August-2013 (with all having their CRS well above 700 or 800)
One more thing to consider is that every week there is addition of 1500 new profiles in the EE pool and if 40% of these are considered not eligible (as per the statistics of last mid-year report published by CIC), then also 900 new EE profiles will be added every week..
so, if draw happens in first week of Aug, then already 2700-3000 new eligible profiles are added to EE pool since July 17th and even if we consider only 5% of them to be above 450 score then it will be 150 + profiles with CRS of 450+
Also, in every draw, almost 40%-50% of ITAs were given to CEC people, most probably because of they were supported with LMIA... if we consider at least 30% of ITAs given to CEC people in this draw then it will be 450 ITAs for CEC people ..
Combining all these hypothetical figures together:
700 from PNAs + 450 from CEC + 150 new eligible ITAs = 1300 ITAs for August-2015 draw.
Finally, if we want to make any assumptions (though it will be purely fictitious), we can say that next draw of August month will be purely PNP + CES/LMIA oriented with CRS cutoff well above 500.
