"Safe" is subjective (see my argument with
@jrossi above ha). I'm on the optimistic side and am pretty confident that Canada will reopen FSW draws, just because meeting their immigration goals seems like a govt priority for economic reasons and there is no way to do so right now without FSW...
I think with a 475 you will get drawn at some point in 2021, I think 90% chance or higher. Maybe 50% chance for 472. These are my guesses, I think
@jrossi might be less optimistic.
Getting to B1 will get your friend 4-10 points depending on how he scores on the 4 parts of the test, but realistically 4-8 points (4 pts if B1 across the board, 8 if B1 for speaking and writing but B2 for reading and listening).
Getting to B2 gets 12 points and unlocks a 50 point bonus. He'd be truly safe there.
US state department estimates 600-750 class hours for an average language learner who knows English to get to the B2 level in French from nothing. But this requires several hundred hours on the side (watching shows, reading news, etc.). 800-1000 total hours is probably more realistic for most people when you add in the work on the side.
https://www.state.gov/foreign-language-training. Getting to B1 is easier, maybe half of that time. Call it 400-500 hours.
It took me 9 months to go from B1 to B2 in French doing 8-10 hours a week. I'm sure it is possible to do it faster.