All the very best to everyone! May god
All the very best to you and to everyone who are trying hard to fulfill their dreams.
Ray of hope - FSW - 1
- Thread starter Jatt2canada
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Are you here for the 1st time? That may be the timing of the actual draw but there is a considerable lag when it gets updated on the website and that is still a good hour away.
Im sorry, but can someone please like this so that I can jump to the end of the thread. As much as I like the idea of having one single thread, its almost impossible to follow and I cant go through 400 pages rn.
4% of the candidates in the entire pool speak French (considering 2019 data), which means less than that are actually bilingual. I would model the data with a 2%, being extremely conservative. I believe the number of bilinguals is actually lower than that.Speculation time!
Guys, how do you think, how much the French points policy solely will affect the draw?
I was doing some rough calculations, just out of curiosity:
Let's assume that 470 points could be today's cut-off (without the new policy).
Looking at the last distribution of points, there are around 20K people between 451-470. These people can potentially benefit from the French points and jump into the 471-490 category after acquiring +20 points, which almost guarantees their ITA in the draw.
Now how many of them are bilingual and will get those +20 points? Statistics show that around 5% of total immigrants speak French. However, it is unknown how many of them are bilingual. So, assuming they are all bilingual, we take the 5% out of those potential 20K, we have 1K people max who will get the points for French and get into a higher score range. Now from that 1K, 500 could get into 471-480 range and another 500 - into 481-490 range.
That said, the final number of candidates in the 471-480 range will jump from 2400 to around 3K. And with another rough distribution, we get an increase of 2 or 3 points to the score, and the final cutoff score could be 474.
Again, just rough calculations, but who knows!
Meanwhile, I am sitting right at 474, and praying
Thanks Arjun. Still keeping faith alive even if the draw doesn't favor me today. I have already done 1.5months of French. I'll attempt the French test in February, hopefully.
Well, in that case, the effect of the French points should be no more than a 1-2 points cutoff increase. The next few hours will tell...
The moment of truth... It's that dramatic silence... Before the draw...
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