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Ray of Hope - 97th Draw

Gibacho

Hero Member
Aug 13, 2017
247
124
24-Mar-2017 - Draw was at 441 for 3749 candidates.
05-Apr-2017 - Draw was at 431 for 3753 candidates.
then two weekly draws brought the CRS down to 423 to 415 with approx 3750 invites..
Though to be noted that the CRS fell 9 points in 15 days gap (24Mar to 05Apr) - is anyone sure why that happened?

Besides weekly draws have been done earlier. It could very well happen again - if the necessary condition arrives.

All together in 2017, 85k ish invites were released - 75% of these invites were released by 23Aug2017.
For 2018, till last draw they seem to have invited 50k ish.. 13k lesser than earlier this time.


Isn't that an indication of softening of CRS in the coming months - by atleast couple of points?
 

Alex SA2C

Star Member
Mar 26, 2018
79
51
waiting for nomination from NS come in in time for the draw but doesnt look hopeful. i keep thinking IRCC going to do a 3 week gap again scince we on 440 again :(
 

Inabt

Hero Member
Jul 19, 2018
322
197
Category........
FSW
Visa Office......
Ottawa/Rome
NOC Code......
1112
AOR Received.
09-11-2018
Med's Request
10-12-2018
Med's Done....
01/11/2018
Passport Req..
01-05-2019
VISA ISSUED...
14-05-2019
LANDED..........
14-10-2019
24-Mar-2017 - Draw was at 441 for 3749 candidates.
05-Apr-2017 - Draw was at 431 for 3753 candidates.
then two weekly draws brought the CRS down to 423 to 415 with approx 3750 invites..
Though to be noted that the CRS fell 9 points in 15 days gap (24Mar to 05Apr) - is anyone sure why that happened?

Besides weekly draws have been done earlier. It could very well happen again - if the necessary condition arrives.

All together in 2017, 85k ish invites were released - 75% of these invites were released by 23Aug2017.
For 2018, till last draw they seem to have invited 50k ish.. 13k lesser than earlier this time.


Isn't that an indication of softening of CRS in the coming months - by atleast couple of points?
I really wish your prediction was right :(...I'm stuck at 437 points
 
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NM2018

Star Member
Jul 19, 2018
71
34
I really hope the draw takes place today. I've already wasted so much time the whole of last year as I didn't know how much of a difference a 0.5 in IELTS could make to the overall CRS. Fingers crossed!
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,621
3,038
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
AUGUST 22, 2018 - DRAW PREDICTION:

I have come up with the prediction for the 97th draw.

If it happens today (Aug 22) with:
3750 ITAs - CRS 441
4000 ITAs - CRS 440
4250 ITAs - CRS 439


The variance in the above calculation is +/- 2 CRS.

Please find below the CRS cut off in case the number of ITAs issued is more/less than the predicted ITA count:

 

maria0314

Star Member
Nov 7, 2017
66
90
Category........
FSW
App. Filed.......
27-10-2017
Killing time because the anxiety is over the roof!:D
Time Check : 11:17: 50 UTC

Previous Draw Time
08/08 - 11:56:30 UTC
25/07 - 12:43:04 UTC
11/07 - 12:09:46 UTC
25/06 - 12:11:51 UTC
13/06 - 11:31:36 UTC
23/05 - 11:20:42 UTC
09/05 - 12:28:41 UTC
25/04 - 12:40:15 UTC
11/04 - 12:50:17 UTC
26/03 - 12:00:18 UTC
14/03 - 12:08:58 UTC
21/02 - 13:29:23 UTC
07/02 - 16:55:01 UTC
24/01 - 13:38:00 UTC
10/01 - 12:15:38 UTC
 

keyur sharma

Hero Member
Dec 3, 2016
676
190
34
Barrie
Category........
CEC
Job Offer........
Yes
Pre-Assessed..
Yes
App. Filed.......
1/07/2017
Doc's Request.
12/08/2017
Nomination.....
12/07/2017
AOR Received.
12/08/2017
IELTS Request
31/05/2017
Med's Request
12/08/2017
Med's Done....
12/09/2017
Passport Req..
26/10/2017
VISA ISSUED...
29/11/2017
LANDED..........
30/11/2017
B
24-Mar-2017 - Draw was at 441 for 3749 candidates.
05-Apr-2017 - Draw was at 431 for 3753 candidates.
then two weekly draws brought the CRS down to 423 to 415 with approx 3750 invites..
Though to be noted that the CRS fell 9 points in 15 days gap (24Mar to 05Apr) - is anyone sure why that happened?

Besides weekly draws have been done earlier. It could very well happen again - if the necessary condition arrives.

All together in 2017, 85k ish invites were released - 75% of these invites were released by 23Aug2017.
For 2018, till last draw they seem to have invited 50k ish.. 13k lesser than earlier this time.


Isn't that an indication of softening of CRS in the coming months - by atleast couple of points?
ut the same year June 28 draw was 449 so draw depends on number of applicants in pool. At that time there was a lot people who were in between 410-415 with one year Canadian experience and they are now in between 430-435 as there another year experience plus some gave IELTS again and the same people next year with 3 year of Canadian experience will be in between 445-450. Express entry was started in mid 2015 I think and that’s why there was not a lot applicant with this scenario till last June but now they had enough people.

One more thing CIC don’t compare anything with previous years. Like before 20 years it was so easy to migrate in Canada but now it’s not so we should not compare anything with last year.