441 cut off for 25th July draw, tie break: 31st Dec, 2017.
Possible implications
* All profiles on 441 opened between 15/11/17 to 31/12/17 have been cleared.
* All these candidates either had there profiles recreated, or were able to increase their CRS/scores subsequently. Otherwise they should all have been cleared on the 23rd May 2018 draw.
Possible Implications:
* 25/07/18 draw could left over about 240+ profiles on 441, i.e. only 50+ profiles - opened 15/11/17 to 31/12/17 - on 441 got ITA.
Challenges
* If as much as 50+ candidates were able to improve their scores to 441 from 15/11/17 to 31/12/17, how many would've done the same from 31st Dec, 2017 to 23rd May, 2018/till the next draw?
* Except IRCC's tie break benchmark is not backed by a definitive formulae, implying it's flexible, then maybe some profiles on 441 opened/improved (31/12/17 to 23/05/18) could have received ITA from the last draw (25/07/18).
Please additional debate/input is required here.
* Assuming the CIC tiebreak benchmark is fixed, then we will have to factor in 250+ profiles on 441 created/improved from 31/12/17 to 23/05/18, and an additional 100+ profiles on 441 created/improved from 23/05/18 to 25/07/18, even till next draw.
Implications for 08/08/18 draw (if no 3 week delay)
* If the draw size increases to 4000,
Conservatively: the cut off will be 441 (5 Profiles left) /440 (90 profiles on 440 receiving ITA).
Optimistically: cut off 440, with 255 profiles receiving ITAs on 440.
* If the draw size remains 3750
Conservatively: the cut off could remain 441, with 255 left over profiles on 441.
Optimistically: the cut off will be 440, with 5 profiles on 440 receiving ITA.
Please note: This is the worst case scenario. In 4 days time, we should be able to generate far more accurate projections.
@gauravmlal,
@at4446,
@bimale4bipeople,
@AlfredoInans,
@navinball have already provided interesting insight into the 31st Dec, 2017 tie break issue, however more input and debate required pending the next 4 day trend. Without definitively resolving the 31st December 17 tie break issue, the margin of our projections is subjected to either the negative/positive influence of +/- 370 profiles (440 to 451).