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Ray of Hope - 91st Draw

Rockjerry

Member
May 3, 2018
15
8
Well said !!!! They talk about stuff without reading about history!
read
The Canadian government is not a charity whose purpose it is to be fair and make everyone. They're looking for people with certain specific attributes that will contribute to the country in the long-run. If they've been living in a different country for the past 10 years and have never stepped foot in Canada, so be it.

As for blaming the British for creating Canada, I could be certain that you wouldn't be looking to immigrate to Canada in the first place if the British hadn't built this nation for you...
read up your comments bro. They are contrary.. you say one thing first and switch to opposite next.. and before talking on any story read the basics and truths. Half knowledge is the most dangerous tool ..
 

PianoTiger

Star Member
Oct 5, 2017
142
15
read

read up your comments bro. They are contrary.. you say one thing first and switch to opposite next.. and before talking on any story read the basics and truths. Half knowledge is the most dangerous tool ..
What exactly is contrary? You're talking about a time in history which is not relevant to anything in today's world - the entire world acted by invading other people's lands/countries during those times. We now have proper systems put in place to control the flow of immigration.
 
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syntaxrage

Hero Member
May 21, 2018
296
131
read

read up your comments bro. They are contrary.. you say one thing first and switch to opposite next.. and before talking on any story read the basics and truths. Half knowledge is the most dangerous tool ..
I am saying that you are stating facts of History!!! Not saying blaming but reminding and educating about it
 

YPS

Hero Member
Mar 7, 2018
557
222
You should all remember that these CRS distribution results are as of May 24th. One thing you should note is that IELTS results were released on May 25th and we are going to see the real impact of the IELTS results in the upcoming draw... it would have given us a better picture if they publish the dustribution after May 25th... but, again, CIC is becoming smart not to disclose to us too much info and give a better picture for those doing the next draw predictions... i am loving this Game Theory strategies.
25th May IELTS results were not so great like last to last time so not expecting much surge cause of ielts .... :p
 
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YPS

Hero Member
Mar 7, 2018
557
222
CRS Trend and Data analysis

Last Draw 23rd May - CRS 440.
Target for 2018 - 300,000 immigrants
Economic Class (EE+PNP) - 135,000 (https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html)

Considering 1 ITA = 2.23 landed immigrants and an average rejection/decline rate of 30-33% (source open data for 2015/2016)
135000/2.23 = 60500 successful ITAs.
Add allowance for rejections of around 30% for sake of calculations, it is expected IRCC will need to issue around 87500-88000 ITAs (They issued similar numbers for 2017)

As of now, there have been 10 draws in 2018 with a total of 31000 ITAs.
Considering they will issue in the range of 87000-88000 ITAs for this year, that leaves us with roughly 56000 ITA for the remainder of the year. Since we are in the 22nd week of the year and a draw due next week, it is expected that there will be 16 draws for the remaining period of the year (Bi-weekly draw). This brings average draw size to 3500, which is what CIC is maintaining as of now.

Outlook
So unless they bring some variance in the draw size, by issuing an increased number of ITAs to over 4000+ and/or conduct back to back draws as they did in 2017, the scores CAN NOT drop below 438-439.
The reason for that is 100% increase in the EE pool from 44000 candidates in 2017 to 85000+ now.
Going by the averages for 2018, Nearly 240+ candidates enter the pool every day with scores of over 440.

The EE pool is dynamic and profiles expire, become ineligible or new ones are created each day. There are also candidates whose CRS scores increase due to better language scores, work experience, education or sibling points and then there are others whose CRS drops due to age or becomes ineligible due to expired IELTS/ECA.

So if they maintain 3500 ITAs per draw and bi-weekly draws, then it looks like an extremely bleak picture and a significant drop in CRS cannot be anticipated.

I am #foreverhopeful that CIC will take steps to reduce CRS by conducting back to back draws and increased ITAs per draw. The reason they may want to drop the CRS (even for a brief period) would be just to bring some balance in the pool and to allow a different mix of skill sets and profiles/backgrounds etc.
But can not speculate when that would happen

Forwarded message, From Kubier.....
 

Polarbear1

Star Member
Feb 12, 2018
65
54
India
For the few months that I have been a member of this forum, I never witnessed this kind of acrimony. People have been encouraging....suggestive and civil to say the least. Even those who got an ITA are staying in the group to pull up others who are left behind. We are not competition at least we never felt it before and we dont want to feel so either. Please let the bonhomie continue....there are ample thigs to take stress from elsewhere.
 

syntaxrage

Hero Member
May 21, 2018
296
131
CRS Trend and Data analysis

Last Draw 23rd May - CRS 440.
Target for 2018 - 300,000 immigrants
Economic Class (EE+PNP) - 135,000 (https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2018.html)

Considering 1 ITA = 2.23 landed immigrants and an average rejection/decline rate of 30-33% (source open data for 2015/2016)
135000/2.23 = 60500 successful ITAs.
Add allowance for rejections of around 30% for sake of calculations, it is expected IRCC will need to issue around 87500-88000 ITAs (They issued similar numbers for 2017)

As of now, there have been 10 draws in 2018 with a total of 31000 ITAs.
Considering they will issue in the range of 87000-88000 ITAs for this year, that leaves us with roughly 56000 ITA for the remainder of the year. Since we are in the 22nd week of the year and a draw due next week, it is expected that there will be 16 draws for the remaining period of the year (Bi-weekly draw). This brings average draw size to 3500, which is what CIC is maintaining as of now.

Outlook
So unless they bring some variance in the draw size, by issuing an increased number of ITAs to over 4000+ and/or conduct back to back draws as they did in 2017, the scores CAN NOT drop below 438-439.
The reason for that is 100% increase in the EE pool from 44000 candidates in 2017 to 85000+ now.
Going by the averages for 2018, Nearly 240+ candidates enter the pool every day with scores of over 440.

The EE pool is dynamic and profiles expire, become ineligible or new ones are created each day. There are also candidates whose CRS scores increase due to better language scores, work experience, education or sibling points and then there are others whose CRS drops due to age or becomes ineligible due to expired IELTS/ECA.

So if they maintain 3500 ITAs per draw and bi-weekly draws, then it looks like an extremely bleak picture and a significant drop in CRS cannot be anticipated.

I am #foreverhopeful that CIC will take steps to reduce CRS by conducting back to back draws and increased ITAs per draw. The reason they may want to drop the CRS (even for a brief period) would be just to bring some balance in the pool and to allow a different mix of skill sets and profiles/backgrounds etc.
But can not speculate when that would happen

Forwarded message, From Kubier.....
That's cool and all . Great stats. I would never say CAN NOT drop below 438-439 . There's going to be a 3 normal draw in (some month coming)