Ray Of Hope - 87th Draw

[Manish Parashar]

Hi Guys,
Any chance CRS points going down till the low 400s.....I know it'll be a miracle if it does.
Just trying to find some hope......OINP went down till 351 and searched....with 2 agonizing filters though.

 

[Annlinet]

Another possibility is that they overshot the targets for 2017, and now compensating by reducing intake.

 

[sriguru12]

Anyone has any news about new AINP express entry stream ? Are they waiting for Ontario to fill the OINP quota and then open ? Its been more than three months since their planned start date of Jan 2, 2018.

 

[vensak]

A bit to correct everybody ideas.
1. If OINP will close for a bit, it will only affect people that did not submit their application and not those who have already done so. The very reason for such break is to deal with the application and count how many spots are left before reopening again for this year.

2. People constantly mix up target of immigrants with ITA. Please do not forget that there can be more people per application. We do not have complete data in order to determine optimal amount of ITA. (% of EE PNP is not known, average size of accompanying family is not know, ITA failure rate is not known). Hence statement like they need to have 74k ITA might or might not be correct.

3. Provinces are asked to spread releases of their applicants all over the year (this is an assumption, but it seems to be valid, given the fact that there is certain amount of PNP each draw). higher releases might happen close to the end of the year or beginning of the new year (when they try to close the current / last year quota).

 

[hope2018]

A bit to correct everybody ideas.
1. If OINP will close for a bit, it will only affect people that did not submit their application and not those who have already done so. The very reason for such break is to deal with the application and count how many spots are left before reopening again for this year.

2. People constantly mix up target of immigrants with ITA. Please do not forget that there can be more people per application. We do not have complete data in order to determine optimal amount of ITA. (% of EE PNP is not known, average size of accompanying family is not know, ITA failure rate is not known). Hence statement like they need to have 74k ITA might or might not be correct.

3. Provinces are asked to spread releases of their applicants all over the year (this is an assumption, but it seems to be valid, given the fact that there is certain amount of PNP each draw). higher releases might happen close to the end of the year or beginning of the new year (when they try to close the current / last year quota).

Couldn't agree more, especially Point 2.

 

[shersingh]

A bit to correct everybody ideas.
1. If OINP will close for a bit, it will only affect people that did not submit their application and not those who have already done so. The very reason for such break is to deal with the application and count how many spots are left before reopening again for this year.

2. People constantly mix up target of immigrants with ITA. Please do not forget that there can be more people per application. We do not have complete data in order to determine optimal amount of ITA. (% of EE PNP is not known, average size of accompanying family is not know, ITA failure rate is not known). Hence statement like they need to have 74k ITA might or might not be correct.

3. Provinces are asked to spread releases of their applicants all over the year (this is an assumption, but it seems to be valid, given the fact that there is certain amount of PNP each draw). higher releases might happen close to the end of the year or beginning of the new year (when they try to close the current / last year quota).

Hey Vensak-- great feedback.

What do u think about the 1400 nomination that oinp has issued already? Would these be the folks that submitted oinp application in november-december timeframe? If so, sadly it would imply 1400 less for 2018

 

[hope2018]

Hey Vensak-- great feedback.

What do u think about the 1400 nomination that oinp has issued already? Would these be the folks that submitted oinp application in november-december timeframe? If so, sadly it would imply 1400 less for 2018

1409 Nominations are from 2018 quota.
Nomination Report
Total Number of Nominations as of (Date): Number of Nominations Issued Number of Nominations Remaining (out of 6,600)
March 7, 2018 1,409 5,191

In Nov they had met 2017 target, all pending applications from then onwards are being given nomination from 2018 quota.

 

[vensak]

Hey Vensak-- great feedback.

What do u think about the 1400 nomination that oinp has issued already? Would these be the folks that submitted oinp application in november-december timeframe? If so, sadly it would imply 1400 less for 2018

I guess what you want to know is if and how many more NOI will Ontario issue this year.

The number 1400 will not give much information, other than that whole year quota nominations were not issued yet.
Exact amount for each stream is not known but estimated only.
HCP is one of the biggest streams, followed by Master stream. Job offer stream is much smaller (judging from the amount of NOI) and French stream is small as well (estimated to be 5% of their nominations). Business stream is practically negligible.

So I would estimate that HCP make take app. 50% of all nominations (app. 3000 per year), so when using 50% on the issued nominations, you will get somewhere around 700 OIHP nominations.

However it is more important to see how many NOI for HCP were issued. The scenario from the last year seems to be repeating:
People are reluctant to use their NOI (saving above all) and when the CRS score starts climbing, suddenly many will send out their application causing whole stream to be closed. And it was only reopened close to the end of last year in order to fill in few remaining nominations (and to get next batch of Masters).
But this year there will not be the luxury to use your NOI few months later (because of the validity).
So they might have received good amount of applications once it was seen, that there is no slide of CRS for ITA any time soon.
But then again there will be a next window of opportunity there.

 

[indpnv]

I guess what you want to know is if and how many more NOI will Ontario issue this year.

The number 1400 will not give much information, other than that whole year quota nominations were not issued yet.
Exact amount for each stream is not known but estimated only.
HCP is one of the biggest streams, followed by Master stream. Job offer stream is much smaller (judging from the amount of NOI) and French stream is small as well (estimated to be 5% of their nominations). Business stream is practically negligible.

So I would estimate that HCP make take app. 50% of all nominations (app. 3000 per year), so when using 50% on the issued nominations, you will get somewhere around 700 OIHP nominations.

However it is more important to see how many NOI for HCP were issued. The scenario from the last year seems to be repeating:
People are reluctant to use their NOI (saving above all) and when the CRS score starts climbing, suddenly many will send out their application causing whole stream to be closed. And it was only reopened close to the end of last year in order to fill in few remaining nominations (and to get next batch of Masters).
But this year there will not be the luxury to use your NOI few months later (because of the validity).
So they might have received good amount of applications once it was seen, that there is no slide of CRS for ITA any time soon.
But then again there will be a next window of opportunity there.

Isn't the break down already given here?

http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPNOI.html

 

[abhishek_89]

Great analysis. Unfortunately, 2018 entrants in the 430's is suffering this long wait trauma. However, according to the current trends, how many 2 week gap draws can be guessed that one has to wait who is sitting on 435?

I don't see a point in doing long term analysis. As CIC is not strictly following 2 week gap draws, its of no use to predict what would happen later this year considering 2 week gap draws. If they had continued with the 2 week gap draws from Feb atleast, Apr 4th draw would have surely been 440. Now reaching 440 itself might wait atleast till May.

 

[abhishek_89]

Just get a feeling that Canada is turning into just another country for immigration.. Trudeau can no longer boasts of doing extra ordinary wrt immigration...

I don't think I understood what you meant. Was something being done extraordinarily wrt immigration earlier?

 

[vensak]

Isn't the break down already given here?

http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPNOI.html

I see. Well technically speaking, would everybody take their NOI they would not need to send out anymore NOI this year. But I doubt that will be the case. The question is just how many of those NOI will not be used up (that might be the reason for them to wait another 1-2 months to see how many more do they have to issue.

 

[abhishek_89]

Isn't the break down already given here?

http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPNOI.html

NOI (Notification of Interest) is not Nomination. NOI is just the invite sent by Ontario to apply for its PNP program. Invites don't necessarily get converted to nominations.

 

[abhishek_89]

Then why did we suddenly see a spike to people sitting above 450 in the March 14 draw?

PNP applicants affect only the above 600 pool as they get 600 points for nomination. The 450-600 pool is non-PNP folks.

 

[abhishek_89]

Total no. of ITAs issued so far = 17500.
Remaining ITAs to be issued this year = 57400 (74900-17500)
Considering they continue to have two draws every month for the remaining 9 months in this year they will have to increase the no. Of ITAs to 3188 on an average to meet their annual traget of 74900.
So we can definitely expect a rise in no. Of ITAs in future which in turn can bring the CRS down.

74900 is the PR target for the federal high skilled economic stream, not the ITA target. PR target and ITA target are not same as 1 PR is not equal to 1 ITA.