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Ray Of Hope - 87th Draw

vish82

Star Member
Mar 15, 2018
66
43
Congratulations to everyone who made it this time and Good Luck to each and everyone who is awaiting their ITA. All I would like to say is, this is a wonderful platform to pull each other up when down and some exceptionally inspirational and dedicated people around. Best wishes to all.
 

Sazlouise

Newbie
Apr 11, 2018
4
2
Quick question I will have 2yrs work experience at the beginning of may but my CRS score automatically increased at the start of April

I got an invitation today but will I have to decline it??
 

alexross

Hero Member
Jan 11, 2018
413
321
Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:

For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day
 

Manu7429

Full Member
Apr 11, 2018
24
11
Hi ,I submitted my express entry profile in October 2017 and recently I could improve my score to 438. I happened to see some NOIs awarded were for EE submitted between 1 Jan to 28 March. So, am I out of contention for next call since I submitted profile last year?
Should I make a new profile and submit again?
 

soniya852008

Star Member
Jun 19, 2015
138
6
I updated it right now... I still Ill get the ITA?
Yes, i had updated after the draw. But, also i am a pnp nominee so might be i was issued considering that cic site says :
You are invited under 2 conditions:
Pnp nominated and secondly the cut off score.

But dont worry, because someone explained that if the profile status was submitted, the screen status is irrelevant. Hope you get it soon :)
 

pessacanada

Champion Member
May 5, 2017
1,190
3,099
Category........
FSW
My sincere congratulations to those ITA receivers! Best of luck in your post-ITA application.
3500 ITAs - that's a huge news. Hope everyone will get an ITA very soon :):):)
 

Kuchbhi

Hero Member
Jul 16, 2017
241
103
You know that not everybody here is a native English speaker with maxed IELTS, Master degree and below 30 years.
Not everybody here has those 460+ points.
And not everybody has a PNP to compensate for lower points.
Some are older (35+), some struggle with IELTS and some have problem with their diploma since their master is recognised just as a bachelor here.
Of course once you have that it does not really matter for you if the draw is in 2 or in 3 weeks, since you will be invited anyway.

So while all your stress after getting your IELTS was just to wait for your ECA. Their stress is to see what are the chances why trying IELTS over and over again and by studying French lessons in the evening and hoping that not too many people with the high score will be attracted.
I think you got me mixed up with someone else.
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,621
3,038
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
@abhishek_89

Thanks to you for helping countless people with your predictions.

Sorry for asking a question fairly early. But how much do you think will be the CRS on 25th Apr, with 3500 ITAs?
In the above scenario, cut off would be 440/441.
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,621
3,038
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
abhishek_89

You are immediately summoned to ROH88 for a very early prediction for next draw...:D
Assuming 3500 ITAs are issued in the next draw,
1 week gap draw should see the cut off reach 438/439
2 week gap draw should see the cut off reach 440/441