Ray Of Hope-86th Draw

[Sandeep198511]

Hi all, I’ve been following ROH for months but this is my first time to post here and it’s been a long wait since last year for my score 426 so i checked the trend myself.

Mar 14 3000 456
Feb 21 3000 442
Feb 7 3000 442
Jan 24 2750 444
Jan 10 2750 446
Dec 20 2750 446
Dec 6 2750 452
Nov 15 2750 439

Based on the trend above, if draw is done every 2 weeks, the point decrease is only between 0-6. So on average 3. Even if they increase the draw size gradually by 250-500, the point decrease will still be around that only because the rate of people going into the pool above 440-450 is also much faster than previous months/years.

I only used 2 points decrease just to be conservative in case there’s 3 week gap, no increase in draw size or separate draw for other programs, etc. But then again the scores will be +/-2 because there are times that draw size is same with 2 weeks gap and score remains the same. So only back to back draws can significantly drop the scores then the same trend continues from that.

March 454
April 452
April 450
May 448
May 446
June 444
June 442
July 440
July 438
August 436
August 434
September 432
September 430
October 428
October 426
November 424
November 422
December 420
December 418

this will not happen....
10-Jan 2,750 446
24-Jan 2,750 444
7-Feb 3,000 442
21-Feb 3,000 442
14-Mar 3,000 456

so there is no constant decrease and the more CRS drops it will be difficult to lower the CRS unless frequent draws (1 week) or increased ITA's (4000 not even 3500 will cut it)

 

[Varunaimar]

Why do you think so?

1. You do not know the average family size (how many immigrants are per 1 application).
2. You do not know the rejection rate as well.
3. And you do not know the % of the PNP streams that are using EE.
The only known number is the immigration plan, but that without the other parts will not give you proper answers.

And if the family size is app. 2 people per application and if the rejection / failure rate is app. 30% and if only app. 30% of all PNP are using, then they might be even still calling too many ITA.

Also according to the bits of statistics that they have released it is more or less appropriate number.

This was my opinion as well. Completely agree.

 

[premchandar.au]

Hi all, I’ve been following ROH for months but this is my first time to post here and it’s been a long wait since last year for my score 426 so i checked the trend myself.

Mar 14 3000 456
Feb 21 3000 442
Feb 7 3000 442
Jan 24 2750 444
Jan 10 2750 446
Dec 20 2750 446
Dec 6 2750 452
Nov 15 2750 439

Based on the trend above, if draw is done every 2 weeks, the point decrease is only between 0-6. So on average 3. Even if they increase the draw size gradually by 250-500, the point decrease will still be around that only because the rate of people going into the pool above 440-450 is also much faster than previous months/years.

I only used 2 points decrease just to be conservative in case there’s 3 week gap, no increase in draw size or separate draw for other programs, etc. But then again the scores will be +/-2 because there are times that draw size is same with 2 weeks gap and score remains the same. So only back to back draws can significantly drop the scores then the same trend continues from that.

March 454
April 452
April 450
May 448
May 446
June 444
June 442
July 440
July 438
August 436
August 434
September 432
September 430
October 428
October 426
November 424
November 422
December 420
December 418

You have smoothed the curve too much. It will be far more erratic than this

 

[Varunaimar]

Why do you think so?

1. You do not know the average family size (how many immigrants are per 1 application).
2. You do not know the rejection rate as well.
3. And you do not know the % of the PNP streams that are using EE.
The only known number is the immigration plan, but that without the other parts will not give you proper answers.

And if the family size is app. 2 people per application and if the rejection / failure rate is app. 30% and if only app. 30% of all PNP are using, then they might be even still calling too many ITA.

Also according to the bits of statistics that they have released it is more or less appropriate number.

My view, but I think the number of PNP candidates using EE route is much more. Closer to about 60-70%. This explains the unusually high numbers above 600 in the last draw.

 

[everydaydealer]

My view, but I think the number of PNP candidates using EE route is much more. Closer to about 60-70%. This explains the unusually high numbers above 600 in the last draw.

i agree too. about 500 was used by pnp folks

 

[vensak]

My view, but I think the number of PNP candidates using EE route is much more. Closer to about 60-70%. This explains the unusually high numbers above 600 in the last draw.

Nope that is not the case at all. Numbers from last year are telling much less.
Anyway if you have like 500 PNP every draw which is app 1000 PNP every month, that is only 12k per year.
Then you need to deduct 30% of failed ITA (declined ita or first application rejected). And you will get 8500 accepted ITA. Now multiply by the family size - 2 and you will get 16K immigrants.
Whole PNP stream has 51k immigrants. So 16K is more like 30% of all streams.

Would it be 60-70 % that number would have to be doubled (app. 1K ITA per draw just for PNP).

 

[Abhishek.s1990]

Guys check this out
https://www.techgig.com/tech-news/H-1B-effect-Here-s-why-EB-5-visa-is-getting-more-popular-167272?mailer_id=3306&utm_source=TG_batch&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digest_news_2018-03-20&etoken=YWJoaXNoZWsuc2Fya2FyMDMxMTkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbQ==&activity_name=MzQ1NTQ3&dt=&auto_login=enhkUXdqWCtDZnRhS0ZPVmlXWEJtZEJLandIeGkrKzdHMzJncDlVeTc2Z1JmY3Fvdys1anlNR1NEQUhtOEdKaFNZaDZ1bmIrY05mVGtiOStqVlliTGc9PQ==&src_type=autoLogin

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Hey Guys,

Todays draw is more important for us, even more important than water for a man stranding in a desert for one month.......


lets pray and pray and pray....................may CIC do something today to repair our already broken heart !!!

 

[Krystine]

Sitting at 444 and hope I get the ITA by the end of July... that was so shocking to see such a huge increase in the last draw...

 

[desmat]

Dear CIC,

Yes. It's Wednesday. Do not turn on your beast mode like last week and diminish our ray of hope into rape of hope.

Your Sincerely,
A Poor Soul

its just turned wednesday..12am... i guess draw comes during working hours of cic.. isnt it

 

[Babadook]

Is there a draw today?

 

[Ste_hope]

Can't believe it took me so long to find out about this forum. My last wednesdays would have been way easier if I had you guys to share all my misery with. At least I have you from now on! Let's hope for a draw today!! Good luck for us!!

 

[desmat]

I am a little naive to this and hence I have some questions on the responses mentioned below mate.
1. Where does it state that the size of the family impacts the 74900 ITAs to be issued? ITA is for the primary applicant and one per applicant is my view please correct me if I’m wrong. 2. We know that 55K PNPs (which are not mentioned as part of 74900 ITAs planned) are to be issued but where is it mentioned that enhanced PNPs that take the EE route are part of 74900 EE ITAs and not from the quota of 55k? 3. Considering a mere 15% rejection rate we still need 85k+ ITAs and 14k+ have been issued so far.. without knowing the answer to the above 2 questions, how can we guess that no of ITAs won’t increase QUOTE="vensak, post: 6806474, member: 621392"]Why do you think so?

1. You do not know the average family size (how many immigrants are per 1 application).
2. You do not know the rejection rate as well.
3. And you do not know the % of the PNP streams that are using EE.
The only known number is the immigration plan, but that without the other parts will not give you proper answers.

And if the family size is app. 2 people per application and if the rejection / failure rate is app. 30% and if only app. 30% of all PNP are using, then they might be even still calling too many ITA.

Also according to the bits of statistics that they have released it is more or less appropriate number.

and it that 74900 number of ITAs or number of immigrants?

 

[Chillovski]

A good Wednesday morning folks . Ah, the winds of hope on a morning during spring time... how poetic.

Hoping against hope that there's a draw today... (in reality not too hopeful though, going by the recent trends).

Just can't understand why they've had so many 3-week gaps in between draws lately (since Nov '17).

If there is a draw of 3,000 ITA's today due to some miracle, then expect the CRS to come down to around 445 (+/-2).

All the best everyone.

 

[Sandeep198511]

Hey Guys,

Todays draw is more important for us, even more important than water for a man stranding in a desert for one month.......


lets pray and pray and pray....................may CIC do something today to repair our already broken heart !!!

well said...and don't worry there will be draw today.....