I understand why everyone with CRS 440 and 441 will want to panic and accept NOI but let me shed some light on the data received today and what I can interpret.
First of all the PNPs, there is high chance a small province issued a backlog of PNP all together and they all enter the pool the week of 7th to 15th otherwise PNP have only been more than 300 after one week only twice in the past.
The influx at 451 to 600 is an anomaly that corrected itself the following week. That is 900 from 7th to 15th was really unusual and 15th to 21st was significantly lower.
Let me explain. If you think the trend shown during 7th to 15th continued the following week then as at time of the draw, the pool will look like this.
600 to 1200. 700
451 to 600. 1800
Now notice that is already 2500.
Meaning only 500 left for 441 to 450.
There is no way 500 was able to clear 443 to 450 and the backlog at 442.
The only reasonable explanation is during 15th to 21st.
Both PNP 600 to 1200 and the high score of 451 to 600. Were significantly lower than the previous week which we know to be 350 and 900 candidates.
By my own estimation backlog cleared at 442 was about 380 and new profile at 443 to 450 was about 480 for a total of 850.
Meaning the 500 left if we double the 7th to 15th breakdown is not visible.
Hence I estimated that for 15th to 21st the addition for over 600 was about 200 candidates which is normal and for 451 to 600 it was about 700 candidates which is also normal.
Therefore the reason for this unusual draw was an influx of high crs during 7th to 15th and that trend was not sustained the following week of 15th to 21st.
The reason could be backlog of IELTS or it could be other reasons as well.
Anyways I wish you all good luck.
First of all the PNPs, there is high chance a small province issued a backlog of PNP all together and they all enter the pool the week of 7th to 15th otherwise PNP have only been more than 300 after one week only twice in the past.
The influx at 451 to 600 is an anomaly that corrected itself the following week. That is 900 from 7th to 15th was really unusual and 15th to 21st was significantly lower.
Let me explain. If you think the trend shown during 7th to 15th continued the following week then as at time of the draw, the pool will look like this.
600 to 1200. 700
451 to 600. 1800
Now notice that is already 2500.
Meaning only 500 left for 441 to 450.
There is no way 500 was able to clear 443 to 450 and the backlog at 442.
The only reasonable explanation is during 15th to 21st.
Both PNP 600 to 1200 and the high score of 451 to 600. Were significantly lower than the previous week which we know to be 350 and 900 candidates.
By my own estimation backlog cleared at 442 was about 380 and new profile at 443 to 450 was about 480 for a total of 850.
Meaning the 500 left if we double the 7th to 15th breakdown is not visible.
Hence I estimated that for 15th to 21st the addition for over 600 was about 200 candidates which is normal and for 451 to 600 it was about 700 candidates which is also normal.
Therefore the reason for this unusual draw was an influx of high crs during 7th to 15th and that trend was not sustained the following week of 15th to 21st.
The reason could be backlog of IELTS or it could be other reasons as well.
Anyways I wish you all good luck.
