Ray of Hope - 85th Draw

[Titanium]

Dissappointing.
What’s the point having this score distribution if lower scores have bleak chances.

 

[Contactnisha]

Plz confirm if anyone received oinp. It's likely to happen today or Friday.
The competition is so tough am afraid...

 

[fatani]

Is it a negative sign or positive?

Sitting at 439

There is nothing like negative sign and positive sign. Competition is more tougher now the ITA number is low from the past year. And there are no back to back draws as of now. In april 2017 there were 3 back to back draws of 3800+ ITAs that pushed the score down.

As the score in the region of 440s is not daunting as score of 470 or 480 more and more people are applying and increasing their scores to get in. In the past yrs if you see the pool was around 55-60K people. Now it is 76K and increasing after every 2 weeks making it more tougher.

I still believe as ITAs will increase to 3500-3750 like last yr and as some back to back draw happens the score will again fall close to 425.

If you notice the main increase of applicants are in the region of 450-600 and there is only about 200-300 people increasing in 420-430 range. It means that once the build up of these will clear up the score will go down a bit more and stay there as well.

 

[perpetualROH]

There is nothing like negative sign and positive sign. Competition is more tougher now the ITA number is low from the past year. And there are no back to back draws as of now. In april 2017 there were 3 back to back draws of 3800+ ITAs that pushed the score down.

As the score in the region of 440s is not daunting as score of 470 or 480 more and more people are applying and increasing their scores to get in. In the past yrs if you see the pool was around 55-60K people. Now it is 76K and increasing after every 2 weeks making it more tougher.

I still believe as ITAs will increase to 3500-3750 like last yr and as some back to back draw happens the score will again fall close to 425.

If you notice the main increase of applicants are in the region of 450-600 and there is only about 200-300 people increasing in 420-430 range. It means that once the build up of these will clear up the score will go down a bit more and stay there as well.

the build up shows no signs of clearing. last year draws had significant differences in the cut-off scores. this year started off with 446 and we are still at 442(twice).

 

[Chillovski]

I know this is "the ray of hope" thread, but it is quite disheartening to see that the cutoff score remains at 442. For people in early 430's and below, our biggest hope is now on back to back draws of sufficiently large quantities very soon, otherwise we might as well start planning for other, more achievable things in life.

 

[Kakkarot]

CIC follows a pattern of steadily increasing or decreasing ITA's count with every 2 draws and then sticks to a fixed number. Lets hope we see 3250 ITA's in the next month and 3500 in April

 

[Gurpreet1112]

There is nothing like negative sign and positive sign. Competition is more tougher now the ITA number is low from the past year. And there are no back to back draws as of now. In april 2017 there were 3 back to back draws of 3800+ ITAs that pushed the score down.

As the score in the region of 440s is not daunting as score of 470 or 480 more and more people are applying and increasing their scores to get in. In the past yrs if you see the pool was around 55-60K people. Now it is 76K and increasing after every 2 weeks making it more tougher.

I still believe as ITAs will increase to 3500-3750 like last yr and as some back to back draw happens the score will again fall close to 425.

If you notice the main increase of applicants are in the region of 450-600 and there is only about 200-300 people increasing in 420-430 range. It means that once the build up of these will clear up the score will go down a bit more and stay there as well.

Really dont know what is going to happen..no back to back draw..no increase in ita's..very low crs drop..becoming hopeless in this hopeful grp now

 

[fatani]

the build up shows no signs of clearing. last year draws had significant differences in the cut-off scores. this year started off with 446 and we are still at 442(twice).

If you look at the trend of last yr you will see that the 1st draw of jan 2017 was of CRS 468 and 2902 ITAs.

Last yr 1st draw happened on 4th jan and the 2nd draw was back to back on 11th jan with 3300+ ITAs. This yr the 1st draw was supposed to be on 3rd jan but it happend on 10th jan and by mid feb they were giving away 3600+ ITAs and more back to back draws.

The situation now is that there are less no of ITAs 2750 for first 4 draws. And till now there is no back to back draw in 2018. If the ITAs were 3750 and we had atleast 2 back to back draws by now the score would have been in 420s.

 

[fatani]

the build up shows no signs of clearing. last year draws had significant differences in the cut-off scores. this year started off with 446 and we are still at 442(twice).

And to further clear your point in all of 2015 and 2016 score never went below 450. And for 2 long years 413-449 were building up. And as soon as ITA rain started and few back to back draws the score fell to 413. As IRCC is more systematic now and as more and more people are coming up I think score can drop upto 420s. So still anyone with 420 and above have a good chance in my point of view.

 

[raj_modi13]

Relax guys, it might also happen that those candidates who had got ITA in last draws had rejected and still get the ITA again which eventually does not lower the CRS score.

 

[coldfire101]

What the actual fork, man? Does the score ever go down? I'm forking sitting at 438. That drops with my birthday in march. Am I ever getting in?

 

[special3220]

Guys I know you are frustrated and scared as well, me too, but you must keep some patience and wait for few more months. That is because of two points....

Firstly, Last year in first two months in total 16999 ITA were issued. This year on the other hand only 11500 so far. The admission target or maybe I can say the ITA target for this year is 4% more than the last year, they will try to reach the numbers like last year very soon in my opinion. Probably in March-April or in May-June we will see bigger and frequent draws. That is only logical.

Secondly, Even though the no of new profiles entering above 440 is very high but the no of entries in the 411-440 is very low. Around 60-70 per day in this range. So just few back to back draws will make the score plummet. So once the CRS reach below 440, it will not take very long to clear that area of the pool if few back to back dras keep happening, or if we see three draws in a month.

Don't lose hope, there are still time for things to turn around.

 

[abhishek_89]

Is it a negative sign or positive?

Sitting at 439

Both negative and positive signs.
Negative - Influx or average intake at 450+ scores are pretty high and above the average.
Positive - Those stuck at CRS 442 for a long time have been cleared, so 441 should be the next target with 2 week gap draws and 3000 ITAs.

 

[abhishek_89]

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of February 15, 2018
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 320
451-600 905
401-450 22,801
441-450 985
431-440 5,261
421-430 4,690
411-420 5,543
401-410 6,322
351-400 30,782
391-400 5,457
381-390 6,353
371-380 6,442
361-370 6,274
351-360 6,256
301-350 18,615
0-300 3,156
Total 76,579

Is this data before or after today’s draw??

This data is as of Feb 15, its mentioned on the 1st line.

 

[Canada4me2]

One question guys
Last time when the cutoff was 442, the tie break rule said may 2017.
This time it says tie break rule at Feb 11th

What I am not getting is that if the score went below 442 last year , who are these people who created the profile in may 2017 at 442 score and did not get the ITA till draw number 83