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Ray of Hope - 85th Draw

Dr. Khan

Star Member
Feb 27, 2018
63
19
I am an AP Physics teacher, teaching at a high school AP Program offered by collegeboard. I am holding a Ph.D degree in Physics. I am bit confused about my NOC that whether I should choose 4021 or 4031? Anyone out there under the same circumstamstances? Waiting for your suggestions and replies.
 

junascent

Member
Feb 23, 2018
11
3
Hi guys,

I had posted a question previously regarding the exact way to count the time period of 45 days to accept OINP. A few other people had raised a similar query and no one seemed to know for sure. We contacted our consultant and he has come up with a solution of sorts. Just thought i will share it here for anyone facing similar issue.

So me and my husband uploaded our profile on 5th jan 2018 at CRS 441, location India. We recieved OINP on 22nd jan 4:45 pm EST. We decided to wait for a few draws before accepting OINP. We have been waiting since.

However our 45 day limit gets over on 7th-8th march depending upon how you interpret ‘calendar days’. Next draw is likely to happen on 7th march and that would leave us just a few hours or lesser to accept OINP. So we were worried as we didnt want to just throw away 1500 CAD and at the same time didnt want to miss the opportunity.

Our consultant however informed us that the processing fees i.e. 1500 CAD doesnt have to be paid immediately on making the profile accepting the OINP. Once you make a profile for PNP, time period of 14 days is given to collect all the documents and to make the payment.

We are therefore avoiding the confusion of the counting the days and making the profile for PNP on 6th march to be on the safer side.

Still hoping for an ITA on 7th. If that happens then we can withdraw our application for PNP and go throught the ITA route.

Hope it helps everyone facing similar issue. :)

Hi! I believe your situation is better than most of us hopefuls here.

In my opinion, take every chance you get at getting a better CRS score or a PNP.

If the CAD1500 is a big consideration, treat as one of the best investment/gamble you ever took. You either win or lose. What matters most is the Canadian Dream!

Best of luck!
 

zagcollins

Champion Member
Sep 9, 2017
1,313
757
Category........
FSW
For Mexico o NZ? Mexico has 2 kinds of PCC: "Carta de no Antecedentes Penales" (which you can get on your own but it's not the one IRCC wants) and "Constancia de Datos Registrales" (The federal one for which you DO need a letter from a Government agency, the PGR will not give it to you without a government request). The latter is the one IRCC asks for. I had to help both my brothers get theirs so I'm familiar with the process. They both got the request letter after submitting their applications.
aanh, Mexico is far more complicated then.
 

Sandeep198511

Hero Member
Apr 21, 2017
586
642
This has become sad that the people waiting have no hopes below 432 (433 at least have OINP NOI), really disappointed and I don't think there is any way things are going to improve waiting 413 with no hopes. I don't have hopes for 2018 forget next few months, and if it continues like this then forget about next year also.
 

macaly7

Hero Member
Jan 4, 2018
467
412
Category........
FSW
This has become sad that the people waiting have no hopes below 432 (433 at least have OINP NOI), really disappointed and I don't think there is any way things are going to improve waiting 413 with no hopes. I don't have hopes for 2018 forget next few months, and if it continues like this then forget about next year also.
It got down to 413 last year so it could happen. It's too unpredictable to give up hope. Stay positive!!
 

Sandeep198511

Hero Member
Apr 21, 2017
586
642
It got down to 413 last year so it could happen. It's too unpredictable to give up hope. Stay positive!!
Yes it would have been possible if the ITA had increased from Jan...now it's not possible...and by the way there are many applicants above me so it's not possible..that it will come to 413
 
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shersingh

Hero Member
Oct 5, 2017
326
121
It got down to 413 last year so it could happen. It's too unpredictable to give up hope. Stay positive!!
Last year the pool had greet applicants. This year there are 50k applicants over 400 and over 3000 adding every 2 weeks. So, following the rationing technique, the score will never drop. Unless there are multiple back 2 back draws, which is something not in our hands.

Even OINP quota for hcp is only around / under 3000. So even that is not gonna help much.
 

Sandeep198511

Hero Member
Apr 21, 2017
586
642
Last year the pool had greet applicants. This year there are 50k applicants over 400 and over 3000 adding every 2 weeks. So, following the rationing technique, the score will never drop. Unless there are multiple back 2 back draws, which is something not in our hands.

Even OINP quota for hcp is only around / under 3000. So even that is not gonna help much.
My thoughts exactly...with one correction there are around 23k 400+ applicants...and not 50k
 
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rajats13

Member
Feb 20, 2018
14
10
UAE
NOC Code......
0013
App. Filed.......
21-02-2018
IELTS Request
01-02-2108
if there are 4000 draws then surely it will go down but its not possible that number will ever got to 4000...
Assuming the plan is to invite 78,000 more ITA this year (90K target-12K already invited) and about 20 draws remaining (assuming 2 per month), lets hope that on an average 3900 invites have to be there in every draw.

I guess there are reasons to be hopeful.
 
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Sandeep198511

Hero Member
Apr 21, 2017
586
642
Assuming the plan is to invite 78,000 more ITA this year (90K target-12K already invited) and about 20 draws remaining (assuming 2 per month), lets hope that on an average 3900 invites have to be there in every draw.

I guess there are reasons to be hopeful.
here is my analysis...just for hypothesis and more in depth analysis is required but will do that later...

Invitations to apply issued Number of invitations to apply issued Minimum CRS points required Cutoff
Draw 81 10-Jan 2,750 446
Draw 82 24-Jan 2,750 444
Draw 83 7-Feb 3,000 442
Draw 84 21-Feb 3,000 442
Draw 85 7-Mar 3,500 440
Draw 86 21-Mar 3,500 438
Draw 87 4-Apr 3,500 437
Draw 88 18-Apr 3,500 436
Draw 89 2-May 3,500 434
Draw 90 16-May 3,500 433
Draw 91 30-May 3,500 431
Draw 92 13-Jun 3,500 430
Draw 93 (PNP) 13-Jun 143 429
Draw 94 (FSTC) 13-Jun 400 427
Draw 95 27-Jun 3,500 426
Draw 96 11-Jul 3,500 424
Draw 97 25-Jul 3,500 423
Draw 98 8-Aug 3,500 422
Draw 99 22-Aug 3,500 420
Draw 100 5-Sep 3,500 419
Draw 101 19-Sep 3,500 418
Draw 102 3-Oct 3,500 416
Draw 103 17-Oct 3,500 417
Draw 104 31-Oct 3,500 413
Draw 105 (PNP) 31-Oct 290 412
Draw 106 (FSTC) 31-Oct 505 410
Draw 107 14-Nov 3,500 409
Draw 108 28-Nov 3,500 407
Draw 109 12-Dec 3,500 406
Draw 110 26-Dec 3,500 405
these are considering around 90000 ITA for 2018 and if above is followed then 2018 ITA 89,838...and for fun part I have also calculated CRS cutoff for every draw (no analysis here plain excel formula)
*Dont consider me in IRCC
**Dont take it literally
***Dont hold me responsible if this is not followed by IRCC
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
low scorers have a blast today with my prediction....
 

Sandeep198511

Hero Member
Apr 21, 2017
586
642
Prediction for 2018 and have a blast
Draw number/Date/Invitations to apply issued Number of invitations to apply issued/ Minimum CRS points required Cutoff
Draw 81 10-Jan 2,750 446
Draw 82 24-Jan 2,750 444
Draw 83 7-Feb 3,000 442
Draw 84 21-Feb 3,000 442
Draw 85 7-Mar 3,500 440
Draw 86 21-Mar 3,500 438
Draw 87 4-Apr 3,500 437
Draw 88 18-Apr 3,500 436
Draw 89 2-May 3,500 434
Draw 90 16-May 3,500 433
Draw 91 30-May 3,500 431
Draw 92 13-Jun 3,500 430
Draw 93 (PNP) 13-Jun 143 429
Draw 94 (FSTC) 13-Jun 400 427
Draw 95 27-Jun 3,500 426
Draw 96 11-Jul 3,500 424
Draw 97 25-Jul 3,500 423
Draw 98 8-Aug 3,500 422
Draw 99 22-Aug 3,500 420
Draw 100 5-Sep 3,500 419
Draw 101 19-Sep 3,500 418
Draw 102 3-Oct 3,500 416
Draw 103 17-Oct 3,500 417
Draw 104 31-Oct 3,500 413
Draw 105 (PNP) 31-Oct 290 412
Draw 106 (FSTC) 31-Oct 505 410
Draw 107 14-Nov 3,500 409
Draw 108 28-Nov 3,500 407
Draw 109 12-Dec 3,500 406
Draw 110 26-Dec 3,500 405
these are considering around 90000 ITA for 2018 and if above is followed then 2018 ITA 89,838...and for fun part I have also calculated CRS cutoff for every draw (no analysis here plain excel formula)
*Dont consider me in IRCC
**Dont take it literally
***Dont hold me responsible if this is not followed by IRCC
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
low scorers have a blast today with my prediction....
 

ishq74

Champion Member
Jul 18, 2017
1,103
1,314
Prediction for 2018 and have a blast
Draw number/Date/Invitations to apply issued Number of invitations to apply issued/ Minimum CRS points required Cutoff
Draw 81 10-Jan 2,750 446
Draw 82 24-Jan 2,750 444
Draw 83 7-Feb 3,000 442
Draw 84 21-Feb 3,000 442
Draw 85 7-Mar 3,500 440
Draw 86 21-Mar 3,500 438
Draw 87 4-Apr 3,500 437
Draw 88 18-Apr 3,500 436
Draw 89 2-May 3,500 434
Draw 90 16-May 3,500 433
Draw 91 30-May 3,500 431
Draw 92 13-Jun 3,500 430
Draw 93 (PNP) 13-Jun 143 429
Draw 94 (FSTC) 13-Jun 400 427
Draw 95 27-Jun 3,500 426
Draw 96 11-Jul 3,500 424
Draw 97 25-Jul 3,500 423
Draw 98 8-Aug 3,500 422
Draw 99 22-Aug 3,500 420
Draw 100 5-Sep 3,500 419
Draw 101 19-Sep 3,500 418
Draw 102 3-Oct 3,500 416
Draw 103 17-Oct 3,500 417
Draw 104 31-Oct 3,500 413
Draw 105 (PNP) 31-Oct 290 412
Draw 106 (FSTC) 31-Oct 505 410
Draw 107 14-Nov 3,500 409
Draw 108 28-Nov 3,500 407
Draw 109 12-Dec 3,500 406
Draw 110 26-Dec 3,500 405
these are considering around 90000 ITA for 2018 and if above is followed then 2018 ITA 89,838...and for fun part I have also calculated CRS cutoff for every draw (no analysis here plain excel formula)
*Dont consider me in IRCC
**Dont take it literally
***Dont hold me responsible if this is not followed by IRCC
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
low scorers have a blast today with my prediction....
Not sure about your hypothesis however if we see another 250 ITAs hike this month then we can safely assume that total ITAs will increase by 250 every month and by mid year it will reach 4000 which should bring the CRS cutoff down at 420 level!
 
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