Ray of Hope - 85th Draw

[Midnight Blessing]

Hi all of you.. I have been following the ROH posts and interesting predictions but too lazy to login in and post
My equally lazy husband just finally redid his IELTS and with only a .5 increase in listening we increased our CRS from 397 to a whooping 454! (was 402 but we lost five points last Nov - I put in another application as a main applicant and that was 430 until I lost five points in Feb)

So we are expecting our ITA next Wednesday

Don’t underestimate the difference IELTS makes to your score. Keep trying to improve your score and good luck to everyone of you.

ielts only make any difference considering one have at least 2 more more degree ECA equivalency, otherwise unless one can get CLB 10 in all of the IELTS module which is very rare, ITA is not going to be coming this year, at least not in the first half. I wish it would have been 2017 instead of a much harder 2018. : (

 

[desmat]

ielts only make any difference considering one have at least 2 more more degree ECA equivalency, otherwise unless one can get CLB 10 in all of the IELTS module which is very rare, ITA is not going to be coming this year, at least not in the first half. I wish it would have been 2017 instead of a much harder 2018. : (

what do you mean not coming... his score is 454 so definitely he will get ITA in next draw

 

[Midnight Blessing]

what do you mean not coming... his score is 454 so definitely he will get ITA in next draw

i meant people without masters/PG and CLB 10 in all of modules are not gonna get ita before end of this year cause cutoff most probably won't be coming below 438 so early.

about 454, he might even get ppr within 1 month after application with that score

 

[am102]

i meant people without masters/PG and CLB 10 in all of modules are not gonna get ita before end of this year cause cutoff most probably won't be coming below 438 so early.

about 454, he might even get ppr within 1 month after application with that score

True, he has a masters degree.. But what I am saying, never stop trying to improve your score You are at 435, should receive an NOI at some point too! And I still think the points will start dropping mid March / April.. Be patient you are getting it too!

 

[Chillovski]

What do you all think? Would this be fair speculation of no. of upcoming ITAs? It adds up to 79,750 ITAs in total.

Date No. of ITAs
6-Dec 2750
10-Dec 2750
10-Jan 2750
24-Jan 2750
7-Feb 3000
21-Feb 3000
7-Mar 3250
21-Mar 3250
4-Apr 3500
18-Apr 3500
2-May 3750
16-May 3750
30-May 3750
13-Jun 4000
27-Jun 4000
11-Jul 3750
25-Jul 3750
8-Aug 3500
22-Aug 3500
5-Sep 3250
19-Sep 3250
3-Oct 3000
17-Oct 3000
31-Oct 3000

Of course no one knows, but I think what you have could be somewhat close to how it eventually pans out if we follow last year's pattern somewhat (I hope).

The worst that could happen is this: unlike last year, IRCC may go big towards the latter part of the year instead of the first and second quarter. Perhaps they want to have a large group of people with a CRS higher than 430 before Q4. By the time they have to aggressively issue ITA's in the latter part of the year to meet the 2018 quota, the CRS doesn't fall very low like it did last year because by that time, many many people would have CRS of 430 and above in the pool. Let's all hope that something like that doesn't happen in 2018.

 

[maplenow]

Guys, I have two questions.

I am in the EE pool since November 2017 and my score will be 441 from April 1 onwards. Recently, I have been offered a job in Canada (LMIA-exempt, postdoctoral researcher) with start date July 1, 2018. I am not sure whether I should continue with the EE right now or apply for work permit, land in Canada and apply for permanent residence again.

Another question,

Assuming I got an ITA in April, accepted it and started PR application AND later applied for a separate work permit, does it delay the processing of both the applications? Is there a chance my PR or work permit application will be rejected because one of the clause to get a work permit is to leave Canada once the contract is over?

What should I do? Expert suggestions are heartily thanked.

 

[Gurwinder316]

ITA issued in 2017 ~86k
ITA target for 2018 86k+4% say 90000
Per month 7500 (3750 per 2 week draw)
We all know competition is more this year and that CIC is totally unpredictable in terms of draw size and its frequency but one thing which is sure is that they will meet the 90k ITA targets.
Hence, CIC do not have any other choice other than to increase draw size or it's frequency or both to meet target which should lower the cut-off to 420's or even below.

Even if 200 candidates (someone's analysis) per day with CRS of 430+ keep adding for next 10 months which is equal to 6k per month*10 months=60k.

Still CIC need to come down to draw 15-20k candidates with lower score to meet ITA target (90k minus (12k for Jan&Feb+60k for next 10 months ) using bigger/frequent draws (may be few months later)

 

[Tiwana350]

This data is as of Feb 15, its mentioned on the 1st line.

Guys maybe I am missing something.. but I am not able to add up -
1. Total ITAs issued - 3000
2. People in pool upto 442 < 2210 (320+905+985)

601-1200 320
451-600 905
401-450 22,801
441-450 985

Can someone pl explain this. I am a new applicant.

 

[mathansri]

Dear Everyone,

With lots of hopes, managed to get a place in the pool among all the other potent aspirants. Looking forward for next week.

Best wishes to all.
Mathan

 

[Jakilee]

Guys maybe I am missing something.. but I am not able to add up -
1. Total ITAs issued - 3000
2. People in pool upto 442 < 2210 (320+905+985)

601-1200 320
451-600 905
401-450 22,801
441-450 985

Can someone pl explain this. I am a new applicant.

The draw happened a week after that data was captured. Data was captured 15th Feb, draw was 21st Feb.

 

[Sanjana11]

What do you guys think would be the tie breaker date if the draw happens next Wednesday? Opened my profile in dec 25th with 441.

 

[Midnight Blessing]

True, he has a masters degree.. But what I am saying, never stop trying to improve your score You are at 435, should receive an NOI at some point too! And I still think the points will start dropping mid March / April.. Be patient you are getting it too!

I got NOI way back on 2nd February but hard luck WES evaluated my graduation as three years Diploma although I have completed Bachelors. So, yes, I am back with the uncertainty of getting ITA somewhere in the near future, maybe. Taking Masters or learning French is somewhat a long term plan so yes hope is the only thing I have now on my side : )

 

[Bassay]

What do you guys think would be the tie breaker date if the draw happens next Wednesday? Opened my profile in dec 25th with 441.

It is purely dependent on people with 440+ scores entering the pool between feb 21 and march 7. If more people enter pool in these two weeks with higher score then obviously cut-offs can be higher. Just keep praying. All the best!!

 

[Midnight Blessing]

ITA issued in 2017 ~86k
ITA target for 2018 86k+4% say 90000
Per month 7500 (3750 per 2 week draw)
We all know competition is more this year and that CIC is totally unpredictable in terms of draw size and its frequency but one thing which is sure is that they will meet the 90k ITA targets.
Hence, CIC do not have any other choice other than to increase draw size or it's frequency or both to meet target which should lower the cut-off to 420's or even below.

Even if 200 candidates (someone's analysis) per day with CRS of 430+ keep adding for next 10 months which is equal to 6k per month*10 months=60k.

Still CIC need to come down to draw 15-20k candidates with lower score to meet ITA target (90k minus (12k for Jan&Feb+60k for next 10 months ) using bigger/frequent draws (may be few months later)

The only information we have is the surging level of applicants entering into the pool & stealing the ITAS with their high scores every time. Apart from that, we dont have the rejection rate of the applicants for the year 2017. So, what if the rejection rate was so low that CIC really dont have to put an extra effort to have that many ITA? The obvious signal on which we can have some guesses is the reality of not having any single back to back draws in the first two months of 2018 and the fact that we only had 11500 itas issued so far compared to the 16999 itas that was issued in 2017. Yes, the numbers are sending a chill in our spine but so far we haven't seen any optimistic sign from CIC but having said that its a matter of two weeks which can change the calculation completely. I really pray and hope CIC does target 90000 ITAS this year.

 

[Pikecann]

Guys, I have two questions.

I am in the EE pool since November 2017 and my score will be 441 from April 1 onwards. Recently, I have been offered a job in Canada (LMIA-exempt, postdoctoral researcher) with start date July 1, 2018. I am not sure whether I should continue with the EE right now or apply for work permit, land in Canada and apply for permanent residence again.

Another question,

Assuming I got an ITA in April, accepted it and started PR application AND later applied for a separate work permit, does it delay the processing of both the applications? Is there a chance my PR or work permit application will be rejected because one of the clause to get a work permit is to leave Canada once the contract is over?

What should I do? Expert suggestions are heartily thanked.

You may read / search about “ dual intent”.