Ray of Hope - 84th Draw

[Abhishek.s1990]

Can some one share the link for ROH 85 .I could not find it

 

[Smileforu]

How can someone apply to Ontario PNP with existing express entry profile ?

 

[Varunaimar]

To people who are around 430, you guys have no reason to lose hope. Everyone who is predicting that it will be difficult to get the score below 430 is only taking into account a 2 week gap between draws, 5000+ profile in 430-440 range and 3000 ITAs per day. However, few back to back draws will change all those equations upside down. It is also not very uncommon for CIC to do that, just look at last year, there were many back to back draws especially when there were many profile above 410.

It makes me disgusted to see some so called 'expert' here says blantly that score will not come down much, not much hope for profile below 430 and all that crap. These same people said, now there is a magic number found by CIC and they will never draw more than 2750, well, they were wrong. And they will be wrong again when in April- May this year score will again come near 420, because it is only logical considering the no of ITAs sent last year and the target they have this year.

Brother, you make some really valid points and I agree with you on most counts, however one key statistic that has changed since 2017 is the number of guys joining the pool at CRS 430+ and the number of guys improving their profiles to suddenly jumping to 450+. As per an analysis on RoH, if you see my post, I have outlined that the trend of increasing number of people joining at higher bands is making it difficult for those below 430. Of course, I'm not saying they should lose hope, but I will say that the competition is tougher as there are more and more people joining in the pool every day as compared to 2017.

One thing we can absolutely be sure of is the unpredictablity of CIC. If they conduct back to back draws, we'll be waiting with our tongues out. But for everyones sake, unless you've maxed out your points, please keep working to boost up your profile. Don't rest assured that you'll just need to wait it out. Do whatever you can to increase your score. A few points can make the difference between success and despair.

 

[special3220]

Brother, you make some really valid points and I agree with you on most counts, however one key statistic that has changed since 2017 is the number of guys joining the pool at CRS 430+ and the number of guys improving their profiles to suddenly jumping to 450+. As per an analysis on RoH, if you see my post, I have outlined that the trend of increasing number of people joining at higher bands is making it difficult for those below 430. Of course, I'm not saying they should lose hope, but I will say that the competition is tougher as there are more and more people joining in the pool every day as compared to 2017.

One thing we can absolutely be sure of is the unpredictablity of CIC. If they conduct back to back draws, we'll be waiting with our tongues out. But for everyones sake, unless you've maxed out your points, please keep working to boost up your profile. Don't rest assured that you'll just need to wait it out. Do whatever you can to increase your score. A few points can make the difference between success and despair.

Yes mate you are right, there are more people now looking at express entry system of Canada that ever before which makes score coming down difficult. However, even after considering that aspect it is quite obvious me to see the score coming down to high 420s at least once or twice this year, probably around April-May. The increasing no of profile means that we will not see low CRS draws (413, 415 etc) like last year but surely something around 425 will happen, because it is only logical. Just think of a situation like 3 draws in 3 weeks or 5-6 draws in 7-8 weeks. That will clear a lot of profiles and bring a scenario where the no of new entry will not be able to keep the score up.

However, it is in everyones own interest to improve their chance by keep trying to improve their own score. There are no two ways about that,

 

[pessacanada]

Dear All, URGENT URGENT

I have a serious issue, I got an ITA and have all documents ready but in my meds the first syphilis test (Sensitive i think) was positive. They are doing the more specific test now. I didn't know that I had it but if the second test comes positive then I surely have it. I read online and this is completely curable with a set dose of penicillin for a couple of weeks. I wanted to know whether my chances of getting ahead with my case are totally jeopardized or if I get the proper treatment and don't let my doctor send my meds ahead to cic till I get this treatment and ask the doctor to to attach proof of my treatment along with my meds. I have to upload my application by the 14th. VERY WORRIED PLEASE GIVE ME SOME EDUCATED ANSWER, THANK YOU

Hi there,

Sorry to hear your news but good thing you have the results now. My suggestion: go ahead with your current results and do not write any LoE (Medical stuff is different from IRCC and they won't read your LoE) about that, only Canadian doctors will give you instructions and your file will be on hold until you provide a new result about curing your syphilis. Do not worry you will be given some more time to be cured. IRCC agents won't read and understand your LoE about your treatment, only concerned doctors will give a final word to the IRCC agent, that's it.

The other option is to decline your current ITA and go get cured, then apply again. To be sure, if you want you can get the advice of LegalFalcon.

Good luck and get well soon!

PS: Stay positive and don't think that much about that, sooner or later your Canadian dream will come true, I'm sure about it

 

[kanu]

So guys got Express Entry - Provincial/Territorial Interest Letter on February 9, 2018 07:05:06 p.m. EST.
I am getting my spouse to give IELTS in March so hoping my score to increase to around 450. Currently sitting at 438 with NOC 2282 and submitted my profile on Jan 29, 2018. Does the application fee of 1500CAD per application or per person, as I will be taking my spouse and minor kid with me?

Ontario would like to consider you under their Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)



Dear X,

The Government of Ontario is interested in considering you for nomination under its Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) through Express Entry.

If you want Ontario to consider you for nomination under its PNP you must contact Ontario directly after receiving this letter. Note that this letter of interest is not a guarantee that you will be nominated by Ontario. You will first have to satisfy Ontario that you meet the requirements of their program.

You can find general information about each province or territory's PNP program on the website. You will also find a link to Ontario's PNP requirements and contact information.

General information:

If a province or territory nominates you through Express Entry and you accept the PNP nomination you will be allocated an additional 600 points in the Express Entry Comprehensive Ranking System. This means you will likely receive an invitation to apply for permanent residence under the Provincial Nominee Program.

If you accept a nomination, you are indicating to both Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and that provincial or territorial jurisdiction that you intend to live in that province or territory and that you will comply with any other provincial or territorial program requirements.

Once you accept a nomination, your profile will no longer be visible to other provinces and territories, so you will not be considered for nomination by other jurisdictions. You will also not be considered for federal economic programs in Express Entry.

If a province or territory nominates you and you decline the PNP nomination, you will not be invited to apply under Ontario's nominee program.

It is possible to be nominated by more than one province or territory, but you may only accept one nomination.

If you decline the nomination, you will stay in the Express Entry pool of candidates. You will still be eligible to receive invitations to apply under the federal immigration programs (Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program and/or Canadian Experience Class). As well, other provinces and territories (if applicable) will be able to see your profile for future consideration.

You are not obligated to:

• contact a province or territory that is interested in you, or
• accept a nomination from a province or territory.

However, if you do not accept a nomination, there is no guarantee that you will be nominated by another province or territory, or that you will be invited to apply under a federal economic program in Express Entry.

A PNP nomination does not guarantee that you are eligible for permanent residence. The final decision to issue a visa or other document for permanent residence rests with IRCC.

 

[Varunaimar]

So guys got Express Entry - Provincial/Territorial Interest Letter on February 9, 2018 07:05:06 p.m. EST.
I am getting my spouse to give IELTS in March so hoping my score to increase to around 450. Currently sitting at 438 with NOC 2282 and submitted my profile on Jan 29, 2018. Does the application fee of 1500CAD per application or per person, as I will be taking my spouse and minor kid with me?

I'll let others answer your question but it's weird that we wrote the IELTS on the same day, have the same scores, and have the same CRS, hopefully we'll get PPR the same day

 

[ishq74]

Few of us pointing that number of people joining at 430+ are increasing always and number of people improving their score to 450+ also on the rise thus the CRS will not go near to the last year Lows. I have written about this on Ray of Hope 81, let me tell you again my view.

If the pool was always getting populated then the total number between 430 to 440 would have been very high by now! You are not considering dynamic behavior of Express Entry pool. As new people entering the pool, many profiles also getting excluded & down graded (expired profile, expired language test, age increase, withdrawn application etc.). So pool composition at 10 points ranges between 400 to 430 are quite similar last many weeks. 430 to 440 also pretty much same since last November. It will take only couple of back to back draws to flush out these people.

Now come to the mater that people with high score, 440+ are eating up ITAs thus cutoff is not going down. It is very unlikely that number of fresh applicants with CRS 440+ within two weeks can be as high as 3000. Then how come it is increasing? Obviously candidates from lower ranges improving their 1st language abilities and also adding 2nd language and higher education. They are also spending extra money to add spouse education and language result. Evidence of that is the 83rd draw where tie breaker rule applied to candidate who created profile back in May, 2017. Obviously that candidate had lesser points at the beginning and crawled his way up to 440+ range.

We all know these processes of improving CRS score are expensive and demand extra effort and time! Then why do people do this? Because immigration systems all over the world are quite unpredictable and IRCC is no different. People are scared what if IRCC brings a change and makes it difficult, what if they stop taking people, so much uncertainty in people's mind. When IRCC started to reduce the number of ITAs, people got more anxious and started to put their highest possible effort to increase their score, and that contributed CRS cutoff go to above 450 at the end part of last year. Naturally every one wants to get ahead of others, no matter what it takes.

In 2018 IRCC need to conduct regular biweekly draws and invite 3000+ folks every time if they want to achieve the target and we already have seen the increase of ITAs from 2750 to 3000, I am sure it will surge to record number very soon. Once they start inviting more folks, downward pressure on CRS cutoff will mount. When CRS cutoff will start to show signs of getting down, people will be much relaxed and happy to wait for their turn. Then the upper ranges will not fill up as it is filling up now and cutoff will go more down. In between back to back draws will do a lot of magic too! Two back to back draws with 3500+ ITAs will clear more than 7000 folks within 7 days! I don't think many people will be bothered to go through the hassle of retaking IELTS for CLB 9 band or learn french when they will see ITAs coming down to them very soon.

I am sure we are going to witness similar scenario like last year in upcoming months when CRS may go to record low and ITA number to record high of 4000.

Good Luck to everyone, May the Ray of Hope always shine bright!

 

[sundar17feb99]

To people who are around 430, you guys have no reason to lose hope. Everyone who is predicting that it will be difficult to get the score below 430 is only taking into account a 2 week gap between draws, 5000+ profile in 430-440 range and 3000 ITAs per day. However, few back to back draws will change all those equations upside down. It is also not very uncommon for CIC to do that, just look at last year, there were many back to back draws especially when there were many profile above 410.

It makes me disgusted to see some so called 'expert' here says blantly that score will not come down much, not much hope for profile below 430 and all that crap. These same people said, now there is a magic number found by CIC and they will never draw more than 2750, well, they were wrong. And they will be wrong again when in April- May this year score will again come near 420, because it is only logical considering the no of ITAs sent last year and the target they have this year.

Well said, it's better to stop spreading speculation and predict as IRCC is hugely unpredictable.
There is always hope lingering around you that can be caught in any moment .

Settling in Canada is life changing decision, we need huge amount of patience if we are serious about our own life.
Don't loose hope, it will happen eventually, only, it will take some time.

 

[Varunaimar]

If you go back a few posts on RoH 83, someone had posted the rate at which NEW applicants are joining the pool has seen about 10-15% increase at the higher bands compared to November 2017. The new numbers joining in those ranges is the highest so far in EE history. We used to see 30-40 profiles a day, now we're seeing close to 186 alone in the 440+ band. This isn't just due to people increasing their scores because of IELTS (self and spouse), studies etc but also Canadian experience and siblings . Bottom line, the rate at which older applications are getting removed must match the rate at which new applicants are coming in to restore parity. Else we see a mad scramble at around high 430s. This is just my prediction by the way. I'm being pessimistic I know, but then anything better than my prediction is a bonus

All I'm saying here is that people should still keep trying to max out their points and not wait for CRS to drop and give them benefit because the numbers are unpredictable. Even back to back draws may not pull down the CRS to 430 at the rate the new entrants and the older entrants are improving their score.

Few of us pointing that number of people joining at 430+ are increasing always and number of people improving their score to 450+ also on the rise thus the CRS will not go near to the last year Lows. I have written about this on Ray of Hope 81, let me tell you again my view.

If the pool was always getting populated then the total number between 430 to 440 would have been very high by now! You are not considering dynamic behavior of Express Entry pool. As new people entering the pool, many profiles also getting excluded & down graded (expired profile, expired language test, age increase, withdrawn application etc.). So pool composition at 10 points ranges between 400 to 430 are quite similar last many weeks. 430 to 440 also pretty much same since last November. It will take only couple of back to back draws to flush out these people.

Now come to the mater that people with high score, 440+ are eating up ITAs thus cutoff is not going down. It is very unlikely that number of fresh applicants with CRS 440+ within two weeks can be as high as 3000. Then how come it is increasing? Obviously candidates from lower ranges improving their 1st language abilities and also adding 2nd language and higher education. They are also spending extra money to add spouse education and language result. Evidence of that is the 83rd draw where tie breaker rule applied to candidate who created profile back in May, 2017. Obviously that candidate had lesser points at the beginning and crawled his way up to 440+ range.

We all know these processes of improving CRS score are expensive and demand extra effort and time! Then why do people do this? Because immigration systems all over the world are quite unpredictable and IRCC is no different. People are scared what if IRCC brings a change and makes it difficult, what if they stop taking people, so much uncertainty in people's mind. When IRCC started to reduce the number of ITAs, people got more anxious and started to put their highest possible effort to increase their score, and that contributed CRS cutoff go to above 450 at the end part of last year. Naturally every one wants to get ahead of others, no matter what it takes.

In 2018 IRCC need to conduct regular biweekly draws and invite 3000+ folks every time if they want to achieve the target and we already have seen the increase of ITAs from 2750 to 3000, I am sure it will surge to record number very soon. Once they start inviting more folks, downward pressure on CRS cutoff will mount. When CRS cutoff will start to show signs of getting down, people will be much relaxed and happy to wait for their turn. Then the upper ranges will not fill up as it is filling up now and cutoff will go more down. In between back to back draws will do a lot of magic too! Two back to back draws with 3500+ ITAs will clear more than 7000 folks within 7 days! I don't think many people will be bothered to go through the hassle of retaking IELTS for CLB 9 band or learn french when they will see ITAs coming down to them very soon.

I am sure we are going to witness similar scenario like last year in upcoming months when CRS may go to record low and ITA number to record high of 4000.

Good Luck to everyone, May the Ray of Hope always shine bright!

 

[Naina1521]

yes, you need to include salary details. In case your employer refuses to include information on it (like one of mine did), attach other proof like payslips and appointment letter when submitting documents post ITA. You can also prepare a LoE to explain this.

Letter can be as old as you want it to be considering it's your ex-employer and information won't change ever.

Thanku so much for your prompt reply

 

[Naina1521]

yes, you need to include salary details. In case your employer refuses to include information on it (like one of mine did), attach other proof like payslips and appointment letter when submitting documents post ITA. You can also prepare a LoE to explain this.

Letter can be as old as you want it to be considering it's your ex-employer and information won't change ever.

Thankuuu

You get points for Aunt in for FSW score not for CRS.

For FSW 5 points:
Relatives in Canada
You, or if it applies, your spouse or common-law partner, have a relative:

• living in Canada
• 18 years or older and
• a Canadian citizen or permanent resident

This relative must be a:

• parent
• grandparent
• child
• grandchild
• child of a parent (sibling)
• child of a grandparent (aunt or uncle)
• grandchild of a parent (niece or nephew)

CRS
--------
Note: to answer yes, the brother or sister must be:

• 18 years old or older
• related to you or your partner by blood, marriage, common-law partnership or adoption
• have a parent in common with you or your partner

A brother or sister is related to you by:

• blood (biological)
• adoption
• marriage (step-brother or step-sister)

actually i have created express entry profile using crs...i dnt know what is fsw and when do we use this...can u please explain me what i shud have done... i am in IT with 6 years of experience with age 28 and have aunt in canada...bachelors degree and ielts score as L-9, S-7.5,W -7, R-7.5

 

[Varunaimar]

Thankuuu

actually i have created express entry profile using crs...i dnt know what is fsw and when do we use this...can u please explain me what i shud have done... i am in IT with 6 years of experience with age 28 and have aunt in canada...bachelors degree and ielts score as L-9, S-7.5,W -7, R-7.5

If you've created a profile so far on your own, you've done pretty well for yourselves. Simply wait for the next draw. If you feel your CRS is high enough, start gathering other documents like PCC, proof of funds, work experience letter etc.

 

[Naina1521]

If you've created a profile so far on your own, you've done pretty well for yourselves. Simply wait for the next draw. If you feel your CRS is high enough, start gathering other documents like PCC, proof of funds, work experience letter etc.

I have created myself and got 435 thru crs...but as i heard thru fsw we get relative 5 points...currently i dint get it thru crs...can i increase points by addin relatives somehow...i dnt know the diff between fsw n thru crs actually ...i thought its same

 

[Contactnisha]

Anybody below 435 got oinp this week?