Last few months have been utterly disappointing with regards to the increased CRS & lower no of ITA's What's further complicated things is the , non frequency of draws every 2 weeks & this has thrown all predictions out of the window . I am at the receiving end of all this & will lose 10 points on the 3rd Feb thus prolonging my agony of getting an ITA by another 2-3 months . I have worked out a similar model in terms of the no of people entering the pool under each point category & have been doing this for the past 4-5 months now . Looking at the numbers & basis of certain assumptions , the following are my predictions :-
Assumption no 1 - 3 draws would happen in Jan ...Possibly on 10th / 17th / 31st jan
Assumption No 2 - Each draw would have a minimum 3000 ITA's issued . Chances are based on 2017 trends that No of ITA's increased from 3k to 3.25K to 3.5K in the 3 draws in Jan 2017 . If the same trend is followed then we could see higher decrease in CRS however my prediction is basis the intake of 3k for each of the draws in Jan 2017
Prediction 1 - 10th Jan draw - CRS - 450 +/- 2
Prediction 2 - 17th Jan Draw - CRS 440+/-2
Prediction 3 - 31st Jan draw - CRS 438+/- 2
If we do see 9750 ITA's issued in Jan 2018 ie 3000 on 10th Jan , 3250 on 17th Jan & 3500 on 31st Jan then the CRS can go as low as 435. However all that seems wishful thinking considering we havent even seen fortnightly draws in the last few months .