Ray of Hope - 75th Draw

[tjsecondtry]

75k is inline to calculations done, on another thread, i will share the link later with you.



The article was about What Should be intake according to a case study, Yes, i agree the url is shortened to add 'taking' which is misleading and but i overlooked and shared as it is ,But my idea was to share attention on the report that was cited

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/press...my_if_newcomers_have_better_job_outcomes.aspx
Actualli i admit that I didnt read the complete article as it was too big for me to read in one go

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to criticize. I just didn't want to get everyone's hopes up for 450k as fact, like it did for mine, lol. The article itself was still very informative and I'm glad you shared it.

 

[SGtoCAD]

Recently, I worked in Harrisburg, PA. I go to NYC around once a month. I had heard Toronto compared to NYC. But I think it is nicer.

Thanks for the input buddy! I was researching the neighbourhoods in toronto.. Seems to have a lot of nice neighbourhood..

 

[tjsecondtry]

Thanks for the input buddy! I was researching the neighbourhoods in toronto.. Seems to have a lot of nice neighbourhood..

My school is downtown. We checked out buildings near public transport, and were happy with what we found. We were also surprised to see the covered and underground walking PATH that will be very helpful when the weather is bad.

 

[shersingh]

couldnt find the page,But long story short-

300000 Total target immigrants
if EE main driver of getting immigrants then atleast 50% contribution)
150000 immigrants
assuming 2 landing per ITA
75000
mitigating unsuccessful ITAs
75000X1.2=90000 approx ITAs from Nov 2016-Oct2017

So - in theory, if new numbers are announced Oct 31, any draws from Nov 1 and onwards should be based on new numbers or will it be from Jan 1st onwards?
In 2017, they started sending 3200-3400 invites in 1st half and settling to 2700-2800 in the 3rd quarter.
I am hoping, bigger draws early on(Starting Nov or Jan) should bring down the CRS cutoff considerably - unless CIC has some imaginary cutoff and they manipulate intake to control the score to that score only.

Does anyone know why they don't make approx equal sized draws throughout the year?

 

[tjsecondtry]

So - in theory, if new numbers are announced Oct 31, any draws from Nov 1 and onwards should be based on new numbers or will it be from Jan 1st onwards?
In 2017, they started sending 3200-3400 invites in 1st half and settling to 2700-2800 in the 3rd quarter.
I am hoping, bigger draws early on(Starting Nov or Jan) should bring down the CRS cutoff considerably - unless CIC has some imaginary cutoff and they manipulate intake to control the score to that score only.

Does anyone know why they don't make approx equal sized draws throughout the year?

My theory is, when they were finishing the paper applications, it took longer to process them than the pace to meet quota. Once they were finished, they took a large amount of computer applications in order to catch up. In 2018, I expect the numbers to be steadier throughout the year. But that's just my opinion.

 

[shersingh]

My theory is, when they were finishing the paper applications, it took longer to process them than the pace to meet quota. Once they were finished, they took a large amount of computer applications in order to catch up. In 2018, I expect the numbers to be steadier throughout the year. But that's just my opinion.

Ok.. So, if they again invite 75000 in 2018 every other wednesday. 75000/26 = 2884 - which is in ballpark to what we have seen in past few months. Sadly, this will only keep the cutoff in the range 434 - 440 as it has been in recent past. I know we are all only guessing, lets hope for the best.

 

[swar12894]

Keep watching http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/index.asp for 2018 quota of immigration. They should announce it by 31st October.

 

[tjsecondtry]

Ok.. So, if they again invite 75000 in 2018 every other wednesday. 75000/26 = 2884 - which is in ballpark to what we have seen in past few months. Sadly, this will only keep the cutoff in the range 434 - 440 as it has been in recent past. I know we are all only guessing, lets hope for the best.

I'm afraid that will be the case unless next year has a larger quota. My fingers are crossed, because even after the education points, I'm not going to be that high.

 

[moose17]

Recently, I worked in Harrisburg, PA. I go to NYC around once a month. I had heard Toronto compared to NYC. But I think it is nicer.

I've seen it compared to both NYC and Chicago, which bodes well for us since we love both! I'm glad to hear your visit went well. I'm too superstitious to ask for details on the housing hunt yet but hopefully soon (come on, CIC!) I'll feel comfortable with it

 

[bastiaandg]

Here's hoping I will get an ITA in the next round. Still waiting on my WES ECA, but I think that should be in time for the next draw (it's in final review now).

Then I'm expecting to have either CRS 456 if I go safe and claim 2 years of work experience or 481 if I claim 3 years (technically I've been working in this job for 3 years and a month, but the first 2 months were training). Either way I'm liking my chances

Good luck to everyone else as well!

 

[gotodxb]

And the premise behind this 'slight chance' please?

i guess there should be some quota left of 2017 before 2018 plan kicks in.. but no official news about 2018 plan yet, technically it should start from Nov 2017..

 

[Nabs17]

Ok.. So, if they again invite 75000 in 2018 every other wednesday. 75000/26 = 2884 - which is in ballpark to what we have seen in past few months. Sadly, this will only keep the cutoff in the range 434 - 440 as it has been in recent past. I know we are all only guessing, lets hope for the best.

I would slightly disagree with the numbers. Its 75,000 ITAs Jan to Oct. still two months to go which means atleast 4 more draws in 2017. So at 2800/draw, thats atleast 11,200 more. Thus total ITAs in 2017 should be in the range of 86,200 plus. If the same target is maintained with biweekly draws it should be 86,200/26 = 3,315 ITAs / draw.
However i strongly feel that the target for 2018 will go up especially for economic class. The basis for this have been discussed many times on this forum. They include
1. immigration ministers confirmation of 2017 numbers as baseline for future targets.
2. their constant confirmation that economic class is going to be the main driver of immigration
3. Canada financial need for immigration given their ageing population which will start retiring soon.
4. Reports / surveys suggesting that the immigration numbers need to hit 450,000 within a few years to be effective for the economy.

I guess we shall all find out exactly in a weeks time what Canada has planned for us.

Hoping for a huge 2018 target so we can all make it.

Best of luck

 

[stevevutien]

will there be a draw on tomorrow? I am deperately waiting at 431.

 

[shersingh]

will there be a draw on tomorrow? I am deperately waiting at 431.

I doubt for tomorrow, but it would be more than welcome

 

[tempmaha]

will there be a draw on tomorrow? I am deperately waiting at 431.

me too @ #431.